Israel's 'Octopus Doctrine'; Is Netanyahu Going to Attack Iran?

About six years ago, Naftali Bennett, Israel's Minister of Education in Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet, unveiled a plan to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran, referred to as the 'Octopus Doctrine.' What is the Octopus Doctrine? Bennett's idea was that Israel should strike directly at the head of the octopus, namely the Islamic Republic of Iran, instead of targeting the Iranian regime's proxy forces, which are like the arms of this octopus. This Israeli politician likened Iran to an octopus whose arms have spread throughout the region, identifying groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria as these arms. The U.S. and the European Union consider Hamas a terrorist organization, while Hezbollah is both a militia and a political party that controls a large part of southern Lebanon. Naftali Bennett, who served as Prime Minister of Israel from June 2021 to June 2022, argues that instead of getting involved in endless wars with these militias, Israel should directly target power centers in Iran, including nuclear, military, and security facilities, to destroy the command center of this 'octopus.' Hours after the IRGC's attack on Israel on the night of October 1, Bennett reiterated his support for this idea, emphasizing that the best opportunity to strike the head of the octopus has arisen in the last 50 years, as the Islamic Republic, which has always been a skilled player in chess, has made a grave mistake by launching another missile attack on Israel. From targeted assassinations to cyberattacks, Israel has undertaken various actions over the years, including targeted killings, cyberattacks, and air and drone operations aimed at damaging Iran; although in most cases, it has never officially claimed responsibility for these attacks. In terms of targeted assassinations, several individuals involved in Iran's nuclear and missile industries have been killed, with one of the most prominent being Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, who is considered one of the key figures in the Islamic Republic's nuclear and missile program. In terms of cyberattacks and sabotage, Iranian officials have repeatedly reported such attacks on various infrastructure and nuclear facilities, blaming Israel for them. Air and drone attacks have also expanded significantly in recent years, with military experts stating that Israel has been trying to target not only the Iranian regime's proxy groups in the region but also, especially in the last year, weapon depots and convoys transporting military equipment for Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, while the European Union has blacklisted its military wing but does not classify its political wing as terrorist. A new version of the 'Octopus Doctrine'? Since the start of the extremist group Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, it has become clear that Israel has implemented a new design in its military and security doctrine, attempting to inflict irreparable blows on its enemies. Previous experiences show that this country has historically tried to respond to its enemies' actions in a way that would deter them from repeating such attacks. However, this time, some analysts believe that this classic approach seems to have been combined with an aspect of the 'Octopus Doctrine.' After the war between Hamas and Israel began, Benjamin Netanyahu resolved to completely destroy this extremist group and eliminate its governance and military capabilities. Months after the Israeli military operation in Gaza, it now seems that Tel Aviv has decided to confront other actors threatening Israel's security decisively. During this time, Israel has attempted to compel Tehran to end its involvement in the 'gray zone' by targeting Iranian-related sites, including the Islamic Republic's consulate in Damascus, or, as some observers suggest, perhaps even provoking Iran into direct military action. Meanwhile, Israel has uniquely targeted Iran's deterrent power, with the most notable being the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Islamic Republic's strongest and largest regional ally. The entry of Israeli soldiers into Lebanese territory, aimed at 'destroying Hezbollah's military capabilities,' can be seen as another piece of this puzzle. It is clear that Israel has sought to escalate military tensions with Iran and undermine the Islamic Republic's deterrent power, a policy stemming from several factors. First, Iran's lack of a significant response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani likely led Israel to conclude that the Islamic Republic's military rhetoric could remain limited to psychological and propaganda warfare, and Tehran would not respond seriously even for the blood of its most significant military commander. Consequently, Israel has probably concluded that it can strike the Islamic Republic and its allies without fear of retaliation. Second, experts say that Israel's awareness of Iran's military, security, intelligence, economic, and political limitations has made it less concerned about a possible Iranian response to its attacks. Third, Israel's reliance on U.S. support provides it with a valuable asset, allowing it to strike irreparable blows against its main enemy with greater confidence. Fourth, the significant intelligence failure that Israel was accused of during the October 7 attack has compelled the country, especially Netanyahu, to deliver a blow of equal magnitude to its enemies to compensate for that failure and win public opinion. Fifth, with this strategy, Israel can ensure that it either cuts off the main arms of its enemy in the region or delivers irreparable blows to Iran's deterrent power, or perhaps once and for all engages in a comprehensive confrontation with the main supporter of these groups, namely the Islamic Republic of Iran; a possibility that has been particularly strengthened after the IRGC's missile attack on Israel on October 1. Will Israel attack Iran? If 24 hours ago the likelihood of some kind of Israeli military attack on Iran was less than 50 percent, now, with the launch of about 200 ballistic missiles by the Islamic Republic, almost all analysts agree that Netanyahu has found an opportunity he has long awaited, and thus Israel will show a strong reaction to Iran. Hours after the Iranian attacks ended, he threatened the Islamic Republic that it would pay a heavy price for this mistake. Now, several options are on the table for Israeli officials: First, attacking part of Iran's military facilities, similar to what happened in the April attacks when part of an S-300 missile defense system base in Isfahan was targeted. This could be considered the lowest level of Israel's response. Second, attacking Iran's economic infrastructure, such as targeting oil refineries and petrochemical plants. Israel may want to deliver a stronger response to Iran by conducting attacks in Assaluyeh or even in the southern oil islands of Iran, which would also deal a significant economic blow to the Islamic Republic. The third option is to conduct attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. This is the third level of attacks that Israel may undertake and has repeatedly spoken about the necessity of carrying it out. Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 and targeted Syria's Al-Kibar nuclear facility in 2007 to prevent these countries from developing nuclear weapons. This action, if taken, could significantly escalate tensions between the two sides. The fourth level, which could be the most severe Israeli response, is the assassination of a high-ranking political or military official of the Islamic Republic in Iran; a policy that Israel has repeatedly pursued in recent years but has generally been limited to commanders and senior nuclear and military officials and has never targeted senior Iranian political and military figures. Naftali Bennett wrote on social media hours after the Iranian missile attacks on Israel on October 1 that this is an exceptional opportunity for Israel to deliver the final blow to the head of the octopus while its arms are temporarily paralyzed. Now, as both sides rapidly escalate tensions, Israel's reciprocal response to Iran's attacks and the nature of that response will determine how far this conflict will go.