Jalili and Behdasht's Foreign Policy: Two Different Planets in Khamenei's System

Saeed Jalili and Masoud Behdasht, two candidates competing in the second round of early presidential elections on Friday, speak of two different worlds in foreign policy. While Jalili considers the last three years of Raisi's government successful, Behdasht and his advisors have described it as disastrous. Jalili, who opposes the policies of Rouhani's government, emphasizes pursuing foreign relations with countries in the Global South such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America. During the electoral debates, Jalili repeatedly accused Behdasht and his foreign policy team of only seeking relations with the U.S. and European powers. He argues that the country's agenda should not be held up by several Western countries and that significant economic benefits can be achieved through expanding relations with neighboring countries, Latin America, and Africa. Jalili does not value global sanctions in his policies and states, "We must make the enemy regret their sanctions. It is not about worrying about what they do; as we did in Raisi's government, we must show in practice that we can pursue our economy without regard to the restrictions imposed by the U.S. and Western countries." He cites a specific example of increased oil sales in the last three years, although this has been done through numerous intermediaries and at prices lower than the actual market value due to global sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil officially. Jalili, who studied political science and has spent several years in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was later appointed as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government, a position that made him responsible for Iran's nuclear negotiations with global powers. Jalili also has a contentious relationship with international institutions and treaties, believing that they are designed to serve the interests of Western powers at the expense of developing countries like Iran. He once stated during the 2021 electoral debates, "Regarding joining the FATF, I must say that there is no need for us to investigate whether FATF is beneficial for us or not; I firmly state that signing conventions has no benefit for our country, and I am willing to debate anyone on this matter." On the other hand, Masoud Behdasht stands in stark contrast to Jalili; he claims he is not an expert in this area and that expert opinions should be sought. In his foreign policy roundtable on Islamic Republic TV, he requested the presence of Mohammad Javad Zarif and Mehdi Sanaei, Iran's Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Russia during Rouhani's government, to join him. This choice clearly indicates the potential direction of his foreign policy. Throughout the electoral debates, Behdasht has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of dialogue with the world alongside resolving internal disputes as two main pillars of pursuing national interests in foreign policy. Behdasht is also critical of the current model of oil sales under the government and considers global sanctions a key factor in the undervaluation of black gold. He states that failing to resolve international issues has led to exorbitant costs in various sectors of the country's economy. Behdasht believes that through negotiation, Iran's problems with the world can be resolved. He supports the revival of the JCPOA and Iran's accession to the FATF, stating that until such knots are untied, even friendly countries like China, Russia, and Iraq will take advantage of Tehran. He remarks, "The agreements we made with China and Russia, why do they not implement these understandings? Until we solve our problems in international relations, they will not work with us." Behdasht's strong emphasis on the need for dialogue with the world has led Jalili's supporters to label him as "Western-oriented." Conversely, supporters of this reformist politician call Jalili a backward politician who speaks of space concepts. Regardless, the differences in the models proposed by the two candidates are as vast as the difference between earth and sky, and each speaks from a different ideological universe. While Jalili proudly states that what has been pursued in the last three years of Ebrahim Raisi's government in this area is defensible, he insists that he will continue the same path. It is even possible that Jalili's foreign policy may be pursued more aggressively than the previous government, as Jalili, unlike Ebrahim Raisi, who at least claimed to strive for the revival of the JCPOA, opposes this agreement and considers it detrimental to the national interests of the country. In contrast, Behdasht criticizes the current situation and believes that a new plan in foreign policy can be initiated by employing experts. It is anticipated that if he wins the election, a diplomacy similar to that observed during Hassan Rouhani's government will be implemented with some updates. Nevertheless, both Behdasht and Jalili understand that their powers in this area are limited, and given the expanding role of Ali Khamenei in all matters, including foreign policy, presidents ultimately must align their mechanisms with the "wishes of the Supreme Leader." In the equation of structural and agent effects, the agent can indeed impact the whole, but over the past decades, with Ali Khamenei's policies, the scope of this has become limited, and consequently, it can be expected that the new president, whoever they may be, will ultimately have no choice but to act based on the priorities and preferences of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.