Kazemian: The Candidacy of Ebrahim Raisi is an Important News for the Upcoming Elections

Ebrahim Raisi, the head of the Astan Quds Razavi, officially announced on April 6th that he will run for the upcoming presidential elections in Iran. He received the highest votes among conservative candidates at the meeting of the Popular Front of the Forces of the Revolution, known as Jamna. Political analyst Morteza Kazemian spoke with Radio Farda about the significance of his candidacy, his thoughts, and the potential competition in the elections in May: Morteza Kazemian: It can be confidently said that the important news in the upcoming elections is Mr. Raisi's candidacy. This means a candidacy that is different from the prominent candidates or those who have participated before, such as Mr. Ghalibaf. Mr. Rouhani's candidacy was also assumed. In this sense, the important event of the elections is Mr. Raisi's candidacy. Someone who, in recent weeks, has been the subject of serious rumors and reports due to his advertising activities using the financial and economic potential as well as the credibility of Astan Quds Razavi. Despite all the indirect roles that were taking place, he ultimately entered the electoral scene, and given that Mr. Raisi is prominent as one of the candidates to succeed Mr. Khamenei, I think his candidacy is indeed a significant event. Not only for the upcoming presidency of the Islamic Republic but also for the third leader of the Islamic Republic. Kazemian pointed out that conservatives, or rather part of the conservatives, see certain features in Mr. Raisi that led them to invest in him for the upcoming elections. As you mentioned, not all conservatives are currently standing behind Mr. Raisi. Apparently, various individuals and other figures are also expected to run in the elections, which I believe their candidacies are mainly to target all the programs, policies, and projects of Rouhani's government in the competitive atmosphere. Ultimately, if the main candidate, who might be Mr. Raisi, does not succeed in the first round, at least he can compete with Mr. Rouhani in the second round, and everyone can coalesce around him or withdraw in favor of Mr. Raisi in the first round. It does not seem that if someone like Mr. Fattah, the head of the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, does not run, any of the other candidates will have the personal characteristics and track record to create a consensus, given the series of harsh positions Mr. Raisi has taken so far, and it can almost be said that he is a conservative figure aligned with the central power core from the Intelligence Organization of the IRGC to the supreme leader himself. You mentioned that Mr. Raisi's views and thoughts are close to Ayatollah Khamenei. But in what specific areas do you see this thinking aligned with Ayatollah Khamenei? It can almost be said that the totality of the positions Mr. Raisi has taken in recent months has been very thought-provoking and meaningful. He has noticeably tried to emphasize the reproduction of Mr. Khamenei's discourse, whether in foreign policy, political development, internal political issues, cultural development, or even economic matters. The totality of these factors and discourses that Mr. Raisi has pursued is, in my opinion, completely aligned with the supreme leader. At least he has tried to present such an image of himself while it must be confidently stated that he is one of the prominent figures not only in the conservative camp but also in the authoritarian camp in Iran, and naturally has no relation to political and cultural development and primarily raises populist discussions regarding poverty alleviation or unemployment and similar issues. How much can Mr. Rouhani himself and his political and intellectual supporters consider Mr. Raisi a serious competitor? I think perhaps a bipolarity like the 1997 elections between Nateq Nouri and Khatami will emerge, or even similar to the 2009 elections between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, with the difference that the upcoming elections are organized by Rouhani's government. In any case, if a consensus forms around Mr. Raisi in the conservative camp, whether in the first or second round of elections, it seems we will witness a serious bipolar competition in the upcoming elections. A bipolarity that relates to the importance of Mr. Raisi's success for the supreme leader and how vital Mr. Rouhani's victory is for Mr. Khamenei and whether he is indeed the most important and primary candidate to succeed Mr. Khamenei. In this case, it seems that the core of power in the Islamic Republic will put all its efforts and energy into Mr. Raisi's success. But this does not mean that civil society or the majority of society will be passive, and I think perhaps a bipolarity like the 1997 elections between Nateq Nouri and Khatami will emerge, or even similar to the 2009 elections between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, with the difference that the upcoming elections are organized by Rouhani's government. Mr. Kazemian, Mr. Raisi was one of the members of the 'Death Committee' during the executions of summer 1988 based on documents that exist, especially from Ayatollah Montazeri, which show that Mr. Raisi was among the judges who executed a large number of people in 1988. How much can his association with that incident affect his public opinion? Mr. Raisi lacks any executive record, and his presidency would mean that the president has effectively become the executive arm of the central power's directives. For part of Iranian society, it must be confidently said that unfortunately, this issue lacks priority. That is, livelihood issues, job issues, and the constraints that have gripped the underprivileged layers economically are more pressing than the 1988 massacre. However, for the cultural middle class in Iran, I think this factor is significant, and practically the bipolarity I mentioned is likely to emerge in the upcoming elections. Of course, we should not forget that unfortunately, a figure like Mr. Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Rouhani's Minister of Justice, has also been associated with Mr. Raisi. In this sense, perhaps part of the problem will also be attributed to Mr. Rouhani. But I think that ultimately, among the two options, a significant part of the cultural middle class in Iran will lean towards Mr. Rouhani to prevent the rise of a radical figure who does not engage in dialogue and is largely adversarial in diplomacy, and terms like the keyword 'enemy' that Mr. Khamenei frequently uses are prominent in Mr. Raisi's mindset and naturally have no relation to political development, which could be dangerous for civil society if he comes to power. It should also be added that Mr. Raisi's presidency would not only mean heading the executive branch but could effectively equal a serious move to occupy the position of the supreme leader and succeed Mr. Khamenei after his passing, which might itself provide more motivation for the cultural middle class to counter Raisi's victory and, of course, the authoritarians. You mentioned that for part of the people, the economy is a priority and other issues are given less importance. However, Mr. Raisi has done nothing in the economic field, nor in politics and foreign policy, and his experience has generally been in the judiciary of Iran. To what extent can it be assured that the conservatives have chosen an accurate individual in this regard? A significant question. Mr. Raisi lacks any executive record, and his presidency would mean that the president has effectively become the executive arm of the central power's directives. Of course, the rumors that exist, such as a figure like Mr. Ghalibaf possibly becoming his first deputy or executive, are meaningful in themselves. In a sense, Mr. Raisi will become president just to ensure that a completely aligned individual with the central power becomes the president of Iran and, of course, he is somehow preparing to possibly sit in the position of the first figure of the system, namely leadership, later on. However, given that Mr. Raisi has no executive record, his selection by society will naturally face serious questions and may effectively mean that another populist individual who only wants to rely on oil revenues to waste and change the situation will become president.