Khamenei and the 'Illusion' of Extraordinary Services

Note -- Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, usually does not use statistics because he knows that relying on the figures provided by individuals makes it easier to assess their claims. However, to present the achievements of the regime on the first day of the year 1396, he could not refrain from using statistics. He believes that the regime under his leadership is successful and efficient: "The services that the Islamic regime has provided to Iran and the Iranian people during this time are outstanding and extraordinary services. If we compare these services with those of the Pahlavi era, it will become clear what services the Islamic regime has offered... The list of services of the Islamic regime is much longer than the items I will mention. The population of our country has almost doubled, but the work done is not doubled; it is very remarkable. Infrastructure work has been done that is truly enormous compared to other countries. For example, the country's roads have increased sixfold, the capacity of the country's ports has increased twentyfold. The reservoir dams have increased thirtyfold. The country's electricity production has increased fourteenfold. Non-oil exports have increased fifty-sevenfold. The production of petrochemical products has increased thirtyfold, and the production of steel products has increased fifteenfold. These are foundational works. In the field of science and technology, the number of students has increased twenty-fivefold since the revolution, and scientific articles have increased sixteenfold. These are the achievements of the Islamic regime." (Khamenei, 1 Farvardin 1396) Regarding the use of these statistics and the statistics themselves, five points can be noted: Questionable statistics Khamenei just a week before presenting these statistics questioned the successful statistics of the government in the areas of inflation, economic growth, and employment (which are constantly repeated by officials), saying: "I have told the respected president that stating macroeconomic indicators is good, of course, if the statistics are not questionable, but in any case, these do not affect people's lives and livelihoods in the short and medium term." (19 Esfand 1395) Someone who implicitly considers the government's statistics to be distorted cannot use them to convey the success of the government. Beyond Khamenei's expression of doubt, the statistics of government officials in economic areas have always been contradictory (among themselves and between governments), one-sided (to avoid negative perceptions), exaggerated (such as the growth of more than 11 percent in 1395), and based on unusual foundations and definitions (such as counting someone who works one hour a week as employed). One interesting feature of Islamic Republic officials is that they attribute the achievements of the people despite government policies to themselves. One of these is higher education. From the beginning, the Islamic Republic opposed the presence of outsiders in universities. Selections in the 60s and 70s expelled tens of thousands of students and deprived tens of thousands of interested individuals from studying at universities. However, the people, with their enthusiasm, resisted the government and were willing to pay large amounts for higher education both domestically and abroad. In this situation, former and current officials have engaged in the higher education market (establishing private universities) and turned this demand into a business opportunity. Khamenei himself complained about the large number of students during the peak months of the Green Movement, but when announcing achievements, he refers to the twenty-fivefold increase in the number of students. Khamenei does not pay attention to the fact that some of the components of the indicators that the government has declared as achievements have now been shown to be catastrophic. One of them is dam construction. Recently, the Ministry of Energy announced that it has halted the construction of fifty dams. According to a report by the state news agency ISNA, "The reason for the government's change in the dam construction program is the destructive impact that this policy has had on Iran's limited water resources... So far, 25 billion cubic meters of Iran's water resources have evaporated due to the dams built on the country's rivers, and twenty percent of Iran's flowing waters have decreased." (3 Esfand 1396) When the government itself admits to the failure of the dam construction policy, the leader of the Islamic Republic cannot consider their construction as a reason for success. Comparing with the population One of the very strange points in Khamenei's report is the comparison of services with the population. It may be possible to compare the increase in the production of wheat or milk or the number of doctors (per unit of population) with the increase in the country's population (indicators that are directly related to the population), which Khamenei does not do. However, electricity production and petrochemical and steel products cannot be compared with population growth. In these cases, it is not about bread, where with the doubling of the population, the consumption of bread also doubles. To show the success of the country or government, instead of the population, one can refer to other countries, countries that have been at a similar level or conditions close to Iran (such as South Korea and Turkey in terms of population and level of development in 57 or the UAE and Qatar in terms of gas and oil resources). For example, the length of highways in South Korea in 1967 was eighty-six kilometers, in 1988 it was one thousand five hundred kilometers, and in 2015 it was four thousand two hundred kilometers. Thus, in a 21-year period, the length of highways in this country increased seventeenfold, and in a 48-year period, it increased forty-ninefold. Can one take pride in the sixfold increase in the country's roads in 38 years (which also includes dirt roads and non-asphalt and single-lane roads)? Another example is electricity production. Electricity production in South Korea from 1961 to 1987 increased from 1700 gigawatts to 74,000 gigawatts, meaning it increased forty-fourfold over 26 years. Can one consider the fourteenfold increase in electricity production in Iran (given the construction of power plants with oil revenues) as a sign of efficiency? Another comparison is with the Pahlavi era, as Khamenei mentions but does not compare the statistics. Without comparing with the Pahlavi era, one cannot assess the achievements of the Islamic Republic. For example, one can compare the increase in electricity production over the past 38 years with electricity production during the Pahlavi era. Electricity production increased from forty megawatts in 1955 to one thousand six hundred megawatts in 1968 and seven thousand one hundred megawatts in 1977, which means fortyfold in 11 years and 177-fold in 22 years. In such a situation, one cannot take pride in the fourteenfold increase in electricity production over 38 years. There are also indicators that show that the economic situation of the Iranian people has not only not improved but has deteriorated, and the leader of the Islamic Republic has never referred to them. For example, the head of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce says that current per capita income in Iran has decreased by about 30 percent compared to 1355. (Quds Online, 1 Farvardin 1396) Also, since 1386 until now (due to the nuclear program and subsequent sanctions), growth has stopped, and the per capita income has remained stable. (Masoud Nili, economic advisor to Rouhani, Fars, 14 Esfand 1395)