Khamenei: Continuation of Hostility with America and Supremacy of the Guardian Council

In a speech delivered to the people of Aligoodarz on September 9, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic made it clear that the apex of the power structure insists on the continuation of a strategic and irreconcilable confrontation with the U.S. government and on maintaining the foundations of authoritarianism in domestic politics. He criticized post-nuclear deal views that promote de-escalation and normalization of relations with the U.S., calling for an end to the strained relations between the two countries. This time, in addition to using religious and revolutionary themes, he described a positive view of the U.S. government and its political values as contrary to reason and the interests of the country. Despite emphasizing that Satan is the chief of all devils, he deemed the actions of the U.S. government more destructive than Satan, claiming that 'its only job is seduction and deception, while the U.S. seduces, kills, sanctions, and deceives.' In Khamenei's ideological framework, there is a strong mythical view of foreign policy, reducing it to a confrontation between good and evil. In this framework, the U.S. is seen as the ultimate embodiment of the highest evil in the present time without distinguishing between its government, political system, and society. From another angle, the Great Satan is a model of Islamic imperialism, and Khamenei, aware that opposition to the U.S. as an irreparable whole has supporters beyond religious fundamentalists in Iranian society and its elites, expands his arguments beyond the values desired by the system and utilizes both ideological and secular themes to justify the necessity of maintaining a hostile strategic policy towards the U.S. Currently, his main concern is managing the post-agreement atmosphere so that the government's conciliatory approach in finalizing the nuclear deal does not lose its exceptional status and does not become the norm. He seeks to ensure that nuclear developments do not fundamentally change the foundations of the regime's foreign policy and its classical approach, sending a message to the world, the region, and the social base supporting the institution of the Supreme Leader that the Islamic Republic has not ceased its struggle against the international order and its resistance to U.S. policies, continuing to operate in opposition to the West in global relations. Therefore, the Supreme Leader stated that contrary to the expectations and arguments of the U.S. government and some European leaders, the nuclear agreement will not make Israel safer. Khamenei's statements are correct in one sense and incorrect in another. If the nuclear agreement is successfully implemented, it will reduce security threats against Israel for at least ten years by eliminating the possibility of Iran acquiring military nuclear technology. However, the Islamic Republic's confrontation with Israel is not limited to the nuclear aspect. The JCPOA does not have a decisive impact on other aspects of the regime's behavior in foreign policy. Therefore, the Islamic Republic's aggressive policies may even intensify. Regarding Israel, the government continues to support violent confrontation aimed at destroying Israel while rejecting peace and diplomatic solutions. Naturally, Khamenei, as someone who called for conditions similar to Gaza in the West Bank a few months ago, cannot tolerate the nuclear agreement becoming a platform for promoting Israel's safety. Khamenei once again demonstrated that the government has no plans or schemes for opening relations with the U.S. and conducting negotiations in other areas, continuing its regional policy that is in opposition to the West, especially the U.S. His recent statements also indicated a growing direct and implicit criticism of President Rouhani's government and the country's diplomatic apparatus, which do not engage in the verbal and psychological warfare he desires with statements from senior American officials. Decoding his remarks also reveals that Khamenei has a serious intention to prevent the realization of the desire of some forces within the regime, centered around Rouhani and Rafsanjani, to expand interaction with the U.S. The Supreme Leader also insists on blocking American influence and maintaining relations akin to a Berlin Wall. His remarks further cast serious doubts on the hypothesis of transformation in the regime's foreign and domestic policies in the post-agreement period. However, in the realm of domestic politics, Khamenei, by fully defending the supervisory oversight and supremacy of the Guardian Council in reviewing qualifications, targeted Rouhani more explicitly. He rejected Rouhani's interpretation of the separation of duties between the Guardian Council and the Ministry of Interior. Rouhani had considered the review of qualifications an exclusive duty of the Ministry of Interior, reducing the role of the Guardian Council to oversight. The Supreme Leader's plan is to close the discussion surrounding doubts about the performance of the Guardian Council and to support its special role in managing and engineering the elections for the tenth parliament and the fifth Assembly of Experts so that they do not become a threat to the regime and the current situation. Khamenei, by expanding his view on the people's rights in elections, rejected Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's interpretation. He also declared his intervention in the 2009 elections as an example of people's rights. While Rafsanjani attempts to portray the Supreme Leader's approach in the 2013 elections as a new and different perspective within the framework of the religious concept of 'people's rights,' Khamenei's recent stance undermined that effort, suggesting that 'people's rights' from his perspective could lead to elections whose integrity and announcement of results would be questioned by a large segment of society. Furthermore, his concept of people's rights conflicts with the principles of free and fair elections. In his view, the supervisory oversight of the Guardian Council ensures the paternalistic function of the regime to determine the scope and quality of people's votes under the pretext of the necessity of electing qualified individuals and applying expediency in manipulating results. Declaring that supervisory oversight is part of respecting people's rights in elections and Khamenei's strong and comprehensive defense of the powerful presence of the Guardian Council in reviewing qualifications highlighted the difficulties faced by reformists and supporters of the moderate government. Khamenei's stance increased their concerns that the upcoming elections for the tenth parliament and the fifth Assembly of Experts would regress towards the model of the 2009 elections instead of continuing the model of the 2013 elections. Analyzing the content of the Supreme Leader's positions, appointed institutions, and senior principlists strengthens the perception that the scope of upcoming electoral competitions will be significantly narrower than what the protesters against the current situation expect.