Khamenei's Senior Advisor: Islamic Republic's Government Statistics Are Unrealistic

The senior advisor and special assistant to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic on military affairs described the government's statistics regarding economic growth and job creation as 'unrealistic', stating that 'people see at their tables that this has not happened.' According to Mehr News Agency, Yahya Rahim Safavi said in a speech on Thursday, February 8, that 'by presenting unrealistic statistics, they claim we have had a certain percentage of economic growth, while people see at their tables that this has not happened.' He added, 'They say they have created this much employment, while we see that in every family there are one or two unemployed, even among university graduates.' Previously, the Supreme Leader had expressed doubts about the accuracy of the economic statistics provided by the government of Hassan Rouhani several times. Ayatollah Khamenei stated on Saturday, August 25, that the government's statistics regarding economic improvement, including the reduction of inflation and exit from recession, 'do not reflect the real situation of the country and the lives of the people.' On March 10 of last year, during a meeting with members of the Assembly of Experts, he expressed doubts about the accuracy of the government's statistics regarding the improvement of people's economic conditions, stating that 'these do not affect people's lives and livelihoods in the short and medium term.' Following this, many close associates of Ayatollah Khamenei, including Friday prayer leaders in various cities, severely criticized the performance of Hassan Rouhani's government in the economic sphere. In contrast, Hassan Rouhani defended his government's achievements in controlling inflation, economic growth, and employment in his Nowruz message in 2017, calling it 'unprecedented' compared to the past 25 years. On Tuesday, February 6, Masoud Karbasian, the Minister of Economy, stated that the country's economic growth rate, excluding oil revenues, is six percent. Meanwhile, the World Bank published a report on the global economic outlook for this year, estimating Iran's GDP growth at only 4.3 percent. According to this report, Iran's economic growth for 2019 and 2020 will also be 4.3 percent each. The International Monetary Fund also predicted last month that Iran's economic growth rate for this year would be 4.2 percent. Mehrdad Emadi, an economist, also predicted in an interview with Radio Farda that given the existing political-economic factors, it seems that Iran's economic growth will not exceed 4 percent. According to several experts, Iran's economic growth in recent years has been due to the lifting of Western sanctions and the resumption of oil sales, which has not had an impact on increasing employment. For instance, Fereydoun Khavand, an economist residing in Paris, previously stated in an interview with Radio Farda that the rate of economic growth in Iran is the result of increased exports and oil sales, which does not necessarily lead to job creation and improvement of Iran's labor market. Ali Rabiei, the Minister of Labor, Cooperation, and Social Welfare, has also recently acknowledged that the Iranian economy 'does not have the capacity to solve the unemployment problem.' The head of the Planning and Budget Organization announced the unemployment rate for the first six months of the year as 11.7 percent. According to the Statistical Center's report, despite the overall unemployment rate in Iran being 12.4 percent last year, unemployment in Kermanshah province was 22 percent and in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, it was 20.2 percent. In Kurdistan, unemployment was reported to be over 15 percent. In this regard, Mehr News Agency reported in 2013 based on unemployment statistics from 397 counties in Iran that the unemployment rate in Bashagard County in Hormozgan province, at 53 percent, is the highest unemployment rate in Iran. According to these statistics, the city of Javanrud in Kermanshah province with 47 percent and Saravan in Sistan and Baluchestan province with 45 percent were the second and third cities with high unemployment rates in the country, respectively. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the Minister of Interior, stated on October 1 to ISNA that despite the unemployment rate of 12 percent in Iran, in some cities the unemployment rate is 60 percent. However, he did not mention the names of the cities where the unemployment rate has exceeded 60 percent. Two days later, however, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the spokesman for Hassan Rouhani's government, denied the statistics announced by the Minister of Interior. The method of calculating the unemployment percentage in Iran has always been a subject of dispute and has been subject to multiple definitions.