Kremlin's Concern Over Russians' 'Excessive' Attention to Trump's Return to the White House

A new poll shows that Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has attracted more attention from Russian citizens than the issue of the war in Ukraine, resulting in relative satisfaction among many of them. Meanwhile, Moscow officials express little hope for improvement in relations between Moscow and Washington, and some reports indicate that the Kremlin has even instructed its state-controlled media to downplay Trump's potential return to the White House as 'insignificant.' Concurrently, the Carnegie Center has published an analysis examining the potential impact of Donald Trump's presidency on Moscow-Tehran relations. The Kremlin's concern over the 'excessive interest' of Russian citizens in Trump is evident from the latest survey by the 'State Center for Sociological Studies of Russia,' which reveals that 69% of Russian citizens closely follow the U.S. presidential election, while only one-fifth of the Russian population is tracking developments on the front and the war against Ukraine. The poll also shows that less than five percent of Russian citizens have followed their president's activities in recent weeks, and less than two percent listened to Vladimir Putin's four-hour Q&A session at the Valdai Club, which his spokesperson claimed contained 'important messages about global developments.' During this speech, Putin congratulated Trump and praised the 'courage' of the future U.S. president. The new survey from the 'State Center for Sociological Studies of Russia' also indicates that after Trump's victory, anxiety in Russian society has slightly decreased, with at least 33% hoping that relations between Russia and the U.S. will improve during Trump's term. However, experts from the 'Center for Social Research,' affiliated with the Russian presidential office, believe that 'we should not expect too much from Donald Trump.' Furthermore, these experts state that 'it is unclear whether Donald Trump can actually fulfill his promise to stop the war in Ukraine.' Simultaneously, multiple reports suggest that the Kremlin has instructed pro-government media to convey this message to Russian audiences. The newspaper 'Kommersant,' citing sources in Putin's office, has outlined messages included in the Kremlin's directive for Russian media: 'Trump is a lone hero, and the political system in the U.S., filled with enemies of Russia, may not allow him to improve Moscow-Washington relations'; 'Trump's previous presidency was marred by allegations of collusion with Russia, and accusations of Russian interference in the current election have also been raised; thus, praising Trump in Russian media is detrimental to everyone'; 'Trump advocates for American superiority in the international arena, which contradicts Russia's demands'; 'It is likely that Donald Trump will try to weaken China to sow discord among BRICS members, which would be against Russia's interests, and even a potential U.S. exit from NATO would harm Russia's interests by leading to increased militarization of Russia's neighbors in Europe and the Pacific.' According to 'Kommersant,' the Kremlin is concerned that the lack of improvement in Moscow-Washington relations will exacerbate negative views about the Russian government, 'as if the expectations for improvement in these relations are not met, Russian citizens, if overly interested in Trump, may think that Trump wanted to revive relations with Moscow, but the Kremlin was unable to take reciprocal steps.' According to this report, the Kremlin has 'cautious but positive expectations.' Vladimir Putin and many other Russian officials have recently emphasized that 'Russia is ready to engage with the U.S., but the ball is in Washington's court.' Regarding which U.S. presidential candidate Russians prefer, U.S. intelligence agencies that warned of Russian and Iranian interference during the U.S. election competition believe that Russia favored Trump while Iran opposed his return to the White House. Statements from Donald Trump and his associates indicate that the future U.S. president is willing to improve relations between Washington and Moscow and is prepared to intensify pressure on Tehran. According to the Carnegie Center, 'the question now is whether this approach could disrupt the Russia-Iran alliance?' Nikita Smagin, a political analyst, in an article addressing the potential impacts of Trump's victory on Russia-Iran relations, noted that attention to Iran in Moscow, which had intensified following extensive sanctions against Russia, has now diminished. The trade-economic relations between the two countries are still estimated at four to five billion dollars a year, and Tehran's experiences in circumventing sanctions have not resolved Russia's problems. This analyst believes that Trump's entry into the White House is unlikely to hinder the unprecedented convergence of Russia and Iran that began during the war against Ukraine unless his administration's actions are 'complex and creative'; for example, the U.S. could propose reducing sanctions against Russia in exchange for Russia withdrawing support for Iran. According to this report, Russia views Iran as 'a testing ground for its tools to attract supporters,' and just as it previously secured new contracts with Iran's neighbors by constructing a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, it is now seeking to sign a free trade agreement with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates; an agreement similar to the one recently signed between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union. This union has been described as 'a region of Russian economic dominance and influence.' The Carnegie Center's report concludes that 'Iran has become an ideal counterpart for Russia as the relations of both countries with the West have reached their lowest point, and any progress in relations with Tehran increases Moscow's hopes of gradually establishing similar relations with other countries free from Western influence.'