Kurdistan Region Delegation Visits Tehran; Agreement on Controlling Armed Activities?

At the invitation of Iranian officials, a high-level security delegation from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has traveled to Tehran to meet and discuss with Iranian officials. The delegation, led by Karim Sinjari, the Minister of Interior of the Kurdistan Region and a member of the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, included several senior security officials from the Kurdistan Region. The host of this delegation was Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. In recent weeks, several other delegations from Iraqi Kurdistan have also visited Tehran. According to media close to both sides, the main focus of this meeting was to find a solution to control the military activities of Iranian Kurdish parties on one hand and to stop the shelling of border areas in Iraqi Kurdistan on the other. The government's information website quoted Ali Shamkhani as saying, 'Sustainable security at the borders is a red line for the Islamic Republic, and the military and security forces of the country will respond severely to any movement that threatens the borders of the country.' Additionally, sources close to the Iranian government quoted Karim Sinjari as saying, 'We will not allow any group to cause mischief in the border areas of Iran and will confront disruptors at the shared borders by mobilizing our military and security capabilities.' The meeting between the Islamic Republic and the Kurdistan Region comes at a time when there have been several clashes between members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at the northwestern and western borders of Iran in recent weeks, resulting in casualties on both sides. The significance of these clashes lies in the fact that the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran has not had a noticeable military presence for two decades. However, this year during Nowruz, the leaders of this party announced that they would resume their armed presence in the depths of Iranian Kurdistan. Many of the party's forces are stationed in urban and border areas of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Islamic Republic has used this mechanism to control and suppress opposition Kurdish parties by acting through Iraqi Kurdistan parties. Two decades ago, when the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and the Komala Party moved their bases to Iraqi Kurdistan, according to Kurdish sources in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurdish parties had committed to preventing military movements of these two parties against the Islamic Republic. At the same time, the Islamic Republic had also stopped attacking the positions of these two parties in Iraqi Kurdistan. However, with the military presence of the Kurdistan Democratic Party forces in Iranian Kurdistan, sensitivities on the other side have increased. The IRGC, in addition to engaging with these forces internally, has also tried to increase pressure on these parties and the Kurdistan Regional Government by shelling border areas in Iraqi Kurdistan. In such a situation, the necessity for dialogue between Iranian officials and Kurdish officials becomes prominent. Previously, when the forces of the Free Life Party of Kurdistan, known as PJAK, had clashes with the military forces of the Islamic Republic, the Islamic Republic conducted extensive operations against PJAK positions in the Qandil Mountains in addition to shelling border areas, and ultimately, with the mediation of the Kurdistan Regional Government, this war had ended. During that period, sources close to PJAK and the government had stated that PJAK had committed to declaring a ceasefire and not engaging in armed activities, and according to them, the Islamic Republic had also committed to stopping the execution of imprisoned PJAK members. Although Iranian officials have never confirmed this narrative, for a year, there were no new clashes, nor were any PJAK members executed. However, later sporadic clashes resumed from time to time, and executions intensified once again. Traditionally, the Islamic Republic has had warm relations with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq. However, given the tone of Iranian political and military officials, it seems that relations between Iran and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, led by Masoud Barzani, have cooled somewhat in recent years. One reason for this may be the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq's increasing inclination towards Turkey and the expansion of economic, political, and security relations with Ankara. Another significant reason is Masoud Barzani's insistence on holding a referendum for the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and separation from Iraq, which has also been a focal point of Ali Shamkhani's statements. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council has stated that 'sustainable security in Iraq can only be ensured by strengthening a unified and integrated Iraq.' This statement is particularly important as Iraqi and Kurdish forces prepare to attack the Islamic State or ISIS in Mosul. The period following the liberation of Mosul is crucial for both the Islamic Republic's projects in the region and the political future of the Kurdistan Region. Alongside these issues, a new development occurred in the political landscape of Iraqi Kurdistan in recent months that somewhat worried the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq: the alliance between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Change Movement. Therefore, it seems that, given the new political balances within Iraq, the Kurdistan Region, and the region, the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq are increasingly trying to improve their relations with the Islamic Republic or at least manage the sensitivities that have arisen. These sensitivities escalated to the point of military threats just a few weeks ago, when after several clashes between the IRGC and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq, an IRGC commander threatened the Kurdistan Regional Government officials, stating: 'We warn the mercenary regimes in the region and the political officials of northern Iraq to adhere to their commitments, for we will decisively destroy any point that is the origin of threats against our regime without any consideration.' In the past three weeks, no new military clashes between the forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and the IRGC have been reported. The officials of the Kurdistan Region have now committed to preventing military movements of Iranian Kurdish parties against the Islamic Republic. This commitment is not new. However, the question remains: after the meeting between the Kurdish delegation and the Iranian delegation, will the pressures on the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran to stop armed activities intensify? From the perspective of the Islamic Republic, updating the agreement made two decades ago with the Iraqi Kurdistan parties regarding the cessation of military activities of Kurdish opposition is deemed necessary. It seems that the Kurdistan Regional Government, due to its political relations with the Islamic Republic, will try to avoid exacerbating the security sensitivities of Iranian officials. However, what remains unanswered is whether the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and other parties that wish to have a military presence in Iranian Kurdistan will accept the potential request and pressure from the Kurdistan Regional Government to cease military clashes.