Larijani's Agenda in the Tenth Parliament

The Tenth Parliament holds a unique position among the assemblies after the revolution. This unprecedented feature is the result of a floating and gelatinous majority, making it difficult to predict parliamentary behavior, with decisions determined on a case-by-case basis according to the inclinations of individual (independent) representatives. However, as the Tenth Parliament ages, it is expected that its behavior will become more defined, and independent representatives will either adopt solid and predictable positions or join factions. At the same time, some forces within the 'Velayat' and 'Omid' factions also exhibit unstable behavior, leading to a situation where the organizational basis of these factions is less than the number of attendees at their meetings. Ali Larijani, with experience from presiding over the Eighth and Ninth Parliaments, is well aware of this reality and seeks to establish order in the Parliament while solidifying his prominent position. In the first phase, he managed to defeat Mohammad Reza Aref in the competition for the presidency of the Parliament by utilizing his lobbying power and political skills, as well as being in a better position within the political system. Receiving 237 votes in the election of the presiding board demonstrated that Larijani's presidency in the Tenth Parliament is solidified and accepted by all political tendencies within the Parliament from various perspectives. Now, Larijani's focus is on guiding the Parliament. The changing political configuration of the Parliament and the reformists' plans to oust Larijani have prompted him to present a new political persona. This persona will remain positioned between conservatives and reformists, leaning towards the traditional and technocratic sectors of the conservatives. It can be expected that Larijani, without officially and publicly acknowledging his affiliation with the conservative front, will act in alignment with them due to the need for their support to maintain the presidency. In other words, Larijani's middle-ground approach will this time lean more towards conservatives. This behavior in governance will mean that Larijani will adopt positions in domestic politics and cultural arenas closer to conservatives. His distance from President Rouhani's government will increase, and while he will broadly support the JCPOA and economic policies, he will also amplify his criticisms. Larijani's interview with the 'Mosalaseh' magazine provides a suitable context for understanding his plans for managing the Tenth Parliament. In this interview, he explicitly states that the Tenth Parliament will be a 'velai' (Islamic Jurisprudence-based) Parliament and will coordinate its measures with the leadership. Thus, unlike the Eighth and Ninth Parliaments, which were accused of being 'silent during the sedition' and failing to take a desirable stance against critics and symbolic leaders of the Green Movement, this time he seeks to show greater attention to the leadership's sensitivities. Of course, Ali Larijani has maintained a good and close relationship with the leadership throughout his political life, but in recent years, pragmatism and attacks from hardline conservatives have led to a significant divergence from the leadership's expectations for the Speaker of the Parliament. His limited and relative moderation was not pleasing to the forces known as 'velai' and the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist. However, particularly in this period, given the reformists' mistake of making him indebted to radical reformists, he is moving towards greater alignment with the leadership and adhering to its considerations. In this interview, Larijani claims that the majority of representatives and their supporting political groups have reached a level of political maturity that prevents them from adopting radical behaviors and allows them to address issues independently as phenomena of concern. Decoding these statements means that the Tenth Parliament will not move towards approving resolutions or programs that diverge from the leadership's wishes, or at least Larijani will stand firmly against any potential movements in that direction. Ultimately, calmness in analysis means a lack of challenge against political authoritarianism and also evasion in pursuing and implementing the rights of the people. If this claim is realized, the Tenth Parliament will practically lack the capacity for opening up domestic politics and solving cultural issues, although it is unlikely to exacerbate existing problems. However, such an environment creates difficult conditions for reformists and maintaining hope among dissenting forces against the current situation. Reformists who wish to pay attention to demands and promises and reject imposed red lines will face Larijani and the parliamentary majority head-on. However, the prevailing conservatism among a significant portion of reformists weakens the likelihood of such a rift forming. Larijani has emphasized that the primary priority of the Tenth Parliament is economic issues. Reformist members of Parliament and the head of the Omid faction also share a similar view. This perspective, in turn, constrains the Parliament's influence in domestic politics and issues related to citizens' rights. In foreign policy, while Larijani supports the approval of the JCPOA, he has a critical view of its implementation and calls for greater seriousness from Rouhani's government in fulfilling America's commitments. In his view, the problems arising from sanctions have not been fully resolved, and American officials have been untrustworthy. The tone and content of Larijani's comments regarding the United States have noticeably become harsher in recent days. In fact, it can be expected that Larijani's view during the implementation phase of the JCPOA will align more closely with critics and adopt a critical approach towards the government's and Foreign Ministry's performance. In the economic sphere, although it is unlikely that there will be a significant shift in overall alignment with Rouhani's strategies, differences will increase in details, and he will seek to enhance the Parliament's oversight role over the government. Overall, it seems that Ali Larijani is looking to guide and shape the Tenth Parliament within a framework between Rouhani's government and appointed institutions. In this path, his differences with entities under the supervision of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and conservatives have diminished, while his relative distance from the government of moderation and reformists has increased.