Leader of Syrian Rebels Claims Goal is to Overthrow Assad; Erdogan Supports Rebel Advances

The advance of rebels on the Hama to Homs road continues. The leader of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham group states that their ultimate goal is the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Some reports indicate a retreat of Syrian government forces from the city of Deir ez-Zor. Meanwhile, today, the foreign ministers of Iran, Syria, and Iraq are set to hold a joint meeting to discuss the situation. The three parties have had several phone conversations in recent days, and Abbas Araghchi also met with his Syrian counterpart and Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Sunday. Diplomatic consultations are ongoing as on Thursday, the group known as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies captured the city of Hama in their continued advances in northwestern Syria. After Aleppo, this is the second major city in Syria that rebels have managed to capture in their recent attacks, and a war monitoring body reported that rebels reached within five kilometers of Homs, the third city of Syria, on Friday morning. According to this report, the potential control of Homs would allow rebels to cut off the 'main road leading to the Syrian coast,' which is the main base of the Alawite minority supporting Bashar al-Assad. Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, also stated in his first media interview in years that the group's goal 'remains the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, and it is our right to use all available means to achieve this goal.' The United States officially designated Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018; the European Union, the UK, Turkey, and several other countries have also listed this group as terrorist. In an interview with CNN in an undisclosed location in Syria, the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham said, 'The seed of the regime's defeat has always been within it... The Iranians tried to revive this regime and buy it time, and later the Russians also tried to strengthen it. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.' Erdogan's Support for Rebel Advances Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, who is accused of organizing rebel operations in Syria, stated on Friday, 'Idlib, (Aleppo), Hama, Homs, and the target, of course, is Damascus, and the advance of the opposition continues, and we hope this movement in Syria continues smoothly and without incident.' He added, 'We had called on (Bashar) Assad to come and determine the future of Syria together; unfortunately, we did not receive a positive response in this regard.' Clashes in Northern Homs and the Flight of Some Residents Armed opponents of Bashar al-Assad have announced their decision to capture Homs, and according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, clashes between the two sides escalated on the Hama-Homs highway on Thursday evening. On Friday morning, it was reported that al-Julani's forces took control of villages in northern Homs. According to this London-based center, Syrian army forces and their allies retreated further from Hama on Thursday evening, first from the city of Rastan and then from Talbiseh. According to the same report, areas of Rastan, especially around an important bridge on the Hama-Homs road, were targeted by at least 10 airstrikes from Bashar al-Assad's forces. Homs is only 40 kilometers from Hama, and according to Agence France-Presse, its potential capture would cut off land communication between Damascus and the area that is the base of Alawites and supporters of Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that on Thursday, 'tens of thousands of Alawite residents,' fearing the occupation of Homs by rebels, left the city towards Tartus. Agence France-Presse also confirmed this news, citing local residents who reported that the Homs-Tartus road was filled with vehicles and some residents said they had not yet been able to find a vehicle to go to Tartus. In 2014, just three years into the Syrian civil war, forces of the al-Nusra Front, led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the current leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, killed at least 100 civilians by attacking Alawite neighborhoods in Homs. Rebel groups led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have launched surprise attacks in northwestern Syria since last Wednesday and have so far captured two major cities, Aleppo and Hama, as well as numerous towns and villages. On Friday afternoon, Reuters quoted an unnamed senior Iranian official as saying that Iran and Iraq are considering joint defense projects through the Islamic Republic's proxy groups and 'even regular armies.' This news has not yet been confirmed by any other source. Agence France-Presse also reported on Friday afternoon the retreat of Syrian government forces from the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor. Concerns Over Further Advances Rebels of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham managed to take control of key areas in Hama on Thursday, and then Abu Muhammad al-Julani announced complete control over the city. He also warned Iraqi officials about any involvement of the Popular Mobilization Forces in developments in Syria in a video message. Additionally, videos have circulated on social media showing al-Julani's presence in the Hama citadel and the release of prisoners from Hama central prison by rebels. Hama is the fourth largest city in Syria, and its name is mainly associated with the massacre that occurred 43 years ago in this city. In February 1982, forces of Hafez al-Assad, the then President of Syria, began to crush opponents, especially members of the Muslim Brotherhood, in this city, and according to reports, between 10,000 and 40,000 people were killed or went missing. According to Agence France-Presse, the memory of the siege and subsequent massacre in this city has remained in the minds of many Syrians for over forty years, and although the Syrian civil war began 13 years ago, many say it has its roots in Hama. On Thursday, several residents of Hama tore down posters of Bashar al-Assad and his father after the rebels entered the city. Meanwhile, Axios reported on Thursday that Israeli intelligence officials were astonished by the speed of the collapse of the Syrian army's defense lines in the past 24 hours. One of these officials stated that the fall of Damascus is now more likely than it seemed until recently. An American official also told Axios that all three countries, Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, have expressed concern in recent days to the United States regarding developments in Syria and the possibility of significant changes in the country. Importance of the Fall of Hama Hama, located 200 kilometers north of Damascus, is one of the most important cities in Syria, serving as a key crossroads, connecting the central and northern regions of the country on one side and the western coast and eastern borders of Syria on the other. Hama province is also adjacent to the coastal province of Latakia, which is considered a major gathering place for Bashar al-Assad's domestic and foreign supporters. The residents of these areas are predominantly Sunni, but a minority of Alawites also live in this region. Although the fall of Aleppo last week, as the largest city in Syria, was a heavy and surprising blow to Bashar al-Assad's government, the fall of Hama has also significantly boosted the morale of the opposition to Bashar al-Assad's government, especially since this province and its central city Hama had never been captured by the opposition in the previous Syrian civil war, marking the first time since the beginning of the rule of the Alawite family that it has come under opposition control. Now, rebels are approaching Homs in central Syria, a city that analysts believe, if it falls, could completely change the situation. This city, located 40 kilometers south of Hama, is considered the 'northern gateway to Damascus' and also houses one of Syria's two major state oil refineries. Homs is situated on the route to Damascus and the Russian naval base on the western coast of Syria, thus gaining additional strategic importance. The potential fall of this city could be very costly for Bashar al-Assad's government. 'Risks' of the Situation in Syria for Israel Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet held a special meeting on Thursday night to discuss the country's security concerns regarding the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad's government. The Israeli army informed Netanyahu's cabinet that rebels may now pose a 'real threat' to the continuation of Bashar al-Assad's government. According to Channel 13 of Israeli television, this assessment came after opponents of the Assad government claimed that the Syrian army 'is collapsing' and expressed confidence in delivering more serious blows to the central government. However, at the same time, Israel has seen more signs that the Syrian government, along with its allies, Iran and Russia, is reorganizing itself for a counterattack against the rebels. Israeli officials are concerned about the possibility of Islamist rebels gaining control of more areas in Syria or even the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government, as well as the consequences of a situation where the Islamic Republic of Iran may be forced to send a large number of forces to Syria to assist in the survival of the Damascus government, thereby increasing Iran's influence in Syria once again. Some Israeli media reported that in the security meeting, the possibility was also discussed that in the event of the fall of Damascus and the jeopardy of border areas in Syria near Israel, the Israeli army might establish a security buffer zone for self-defense within Syrian territory. A senior security official stated that this security strip already practically exists, and the Syrian government itself has, over the 14 months of the ongoing war between Israel and Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, effectively prevented any incursions from Syrian territory into Israel, making these borders 'the calmest borders of Israel.' Meanwhile, regional media reports on Friday morning indicated that Israeli warplanes bombed the Qusayr area in Homs province, Syria. This location is a significant junction of roads in Syria towards Lebanon, and Israel considers it one of the main points for the transfer of Iranian weapons from Syria to Lebanon. In this context, the Ma'ariv newspaper referred to the situation in Syria as a 'chain of Iran's defeats' in the region, stating that the '45-year investment of the Islamic Republic of Iran' in the region is at risk of being lost, and 'it is unclear how Ali Khamenei will cope with the consequences of the severe blows to Hamas and Hezbollah after the potential weakening or fall of Bashar al-Assad's government.' Iran's Claim Regarding Ukraine's Role On Friday, Mojtaba Damirchilu, the director general of Eurasia at Iran's Foreign Ministry, claimed that Ukraine supports 'registered terrorist groups in Syria,' calling these actions a blatant violation of international obligations of states regarding counter-terrorism and demanding an immediate cessation of such actions.