Lessons from Vietnam Negotiations for Kim and Khamenei

The negotiations, seemingly left over from Donald Trump's goal with Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, like any other historical event, include lessons that are learned only after the end of the affair and becoming 'yesterday's news.' Each, according to its importance and impact, is studied and taught for years in military, political, and academic centers or pursued by independent researchers. The Korean War, which was halted on July 27, 1953, with a ceasefire declaration between the commanders of both sides, the Vietnam War, which Richard Nixon, the then President of the United States, announced the end of his country's military presence in a televised statement in 1973, the eight-year Iran-Iraq War, which led to a ceasefire between the parties with the acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 598 on August 22, 1988, the Arab-Israeli wars, the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians from the Camp David Accords in 1978 to the Oslo Accords in 1995, and the latest stage of their negotiations, initiated by John Kerry, the second Secretary of State under Obama, a responsibility now entrusted to Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law and advisor, are among these events. The negotiations on February 28 between Trump, the President of the United States, and Kim (the third): Jong-un, the 'legal leader of North Korea,' are not exempt from this rule. (The nominal and ceremonial president of North Korea is Kim (first): Il-sung, the grandfather of the current leader, and father of Kim (second): Jong-il, who died in 1994 and was named 'eternal president' four years later by an unprecedented decision. For this reason, his son and successor was given only the title of Chairman of the Executive Committee of the People's Assembly – a title that Jong-un, the current leader, also holds. In Korea, as in China, the surname of individuals is mentioned first, followed by their given name.) Trump's lessons for North Korea Even without a background in politics or academic education in history, politics, or law, the President of the United States, with the help of professional staff in the State Department, Defense, and intelligence agencies, becomes sufficiently familiar with the history of the affair, the set objectives, and practical expectations from the negotiations before entering into collective or bilateral talks, although the final decision rests with him. During the preliminary preparations, which are carried out with the help of professional staff (civil servants), all necessary points and details, including the proposed meeting location and agreement on it, anticipating the behavior of the counterpart, potential outcomes of the negotiations, and appropriate reactions to each of them, are examined. The first round of negotiations between Trump and the young North Korean leader was held in Singapore, which, apart from geography, was closer to the United States than North Korea in every other respect and was thus considered a suitable host according to 'American values.' The second round of negotiations was held in Hanoi, the capital and second-largest city of Vietnam, which is rapidly approaching the economy and prosperity of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). After the end of the war with the United States in 1975 and the unification of the North and South, Vietnam remained intoxicated by military victory and trapped in socialist ideology. After the death of Ho Chi Minh, the former leader of North Korea in 1969, for a time, Vietnam followed the 'Great Leader' and, like the 'big brother' - Communist China, was stepping into gradual poverty. In China, after Mao's death and the handover of the crumbling economy to Deng Xiaoping in 1978, and the introduction of 'New Thinking' by the new leader, which was a combination of socialism with a competitive economy and welcoming foreign investment, not only did the world's most populous country enter a new path, but the idea of following Deng Xiaoping's theory also found serious supporters in other communist countries in East Asia, especially Vietnam. About eight years after the introduction of 'New Thinking' in Communist China, Vietnam, which experienced an annual inflation rate of 700% and the danger of complete economic collapse, adopted the economic renovation policy known as 'Doi Moi' during the sixth congress of its Communist Party, which, with less intensity than 'New Thinking' and economic developments in China, sought a competitive economy, connection with the free world, and attracting foreign investments. Today, Vietnam, while maintaining a socialist outer shell, has emerged from political isolation, is not subject to global sanctions, has linked its economy to global markets, and, while ensuring gradual prosperity for its people, is considered one of the fastest-growing countries in East Asia. With an annual economic growth rate of 6.8% (in 2017), purchasing power parity (national currency) of about $700 billion last year, and per capita purchasing power of over $7,000, and attracting 15.5 million foreign tourists in 2018 (20% growth compared to the previous year), Vietnam is now one of the most promising countries for attracting foreign investments. North Korea, which still adheres to the communist ideology of the Stalin and Mao era, despite having more urban and industrial infrastructure legacies from the period of Japanese domination, is stagnating in all economic, cultural, scientific, and sports fields and is practically being pushed backward. North Korea's economy experienced a negative growth of 3.5% in 2017, and in the following year, its gross national product ($28 billion) ranked 125th in the world. One of Trump's indirect lessons for North Korea, by choosing Vietnam as the host for the negotiations, was to show a model of real progress, even for systems that apparently remain committed to communist ideology, and the value of giving up nuclear and missile weapons and opening the country to free societies, providing opportunities for growth, prosperity, and freedom for the people. At the end of the negotiations, apparently left over in Hanoi, Choe Son-hui, the Deputy Foreign Minister of North Korea, stated: 'The U.S. missed an opportunity that comes once in a thousand years by not accepting our proposal.' In practice, it is North Korea that has temporarily missed the opportunity to connect with the global community, escape poverty, and move towards development and prosperity; a point that Trump emphasized before starting the bilateral talks with Kim. Lessons for the Islamic Republic Trump's eagerness to negotiate nuclear disarmament with the North Korean leader showed that the American businessman president is ready to negotiate and deal with leaders of any political system (including the Islamic Republic of Iran) and considers internal affairs of countries to be a matter related to their people and leaders. While being ready for dialogue, Donald Trump perceives 'deals' and agreements as separate issues and, as he described the nuclear agreement with Iran, which was made during Obama's administration, as 'the worst deal in history,' he is only looking for a 'good deal'; meaning that he first demands and takes his country's share and then leaves the demands to the negotiating parties. Thus, those in Iran who are hopeful for dialogue with the Trump administration must first learn from the two rounds of negotiations with North Korea and prepare themselves for a real exchange with a tough businessman. The Trump administration previously published the twelve conditions for an agreement with the Islamic Republic and believes that time (like in Pyongyang) is against Tehran, not against Washington. Another lesson from Trump for the leaders of the Democratic Party in the U.S. was that they might have tried to accuse him of being two-faced, weak in character, and inexperienced in politics if he agreed to a half-baked deal with the North Korean leader, with the motivation of taking a public relations advantage from it. In Hanoi, Trump showed that he is looking for a 'good deal' and sustainable interests, not overnight profits. The views expressed in this note do not necessarily reflect the views of Radio Farda.