Mark Fitzpatrick: The Agency Will Likely Have More Questions for Iran

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) states that based on the 'roadmap', Iran has adhered to its commitments until October 15. In this context, Mark Fitzpatrick believes that Iran must take further actions for the Agency to be fully satisfied in its final report in December. The roadmap is an agreement between Iran and the Agency that was signed on the same day Iran and six world powers reached a nuclear agreement. This roadmap outlines various stages of cooperation between Iran and the Agency, one of which was completed on Thursday, October 15. According to a statement from the Agency, we must now wait until December for the Director General of the Agency to present his final report on Iran's current and past actions to the Board of Governors of this international body. I spoke with Mark Fitzpatrick, the Director of the Disarmament Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, about Iran's actions and the Agency. Based on your experience, did you expect Iran to adhere to these deadlines? I was not surprised. It was predictable that Iran would take its actions within the timeframe it had, as Iran is very interested in having this agreement implemented and in lifting sanctions as soon as possible, thus it has sufficient motivation for the day of acceptance of the agreement to arrive without any hassle. However, this does not mean that Iran has fully cooperated with the Agency up to this point, and according to some reports, this cooperation has been minimal. Nevertheless, Iran has been encouraged during this time to accelerate its cooperation so that the Agency can announce that Iran has fulfilled its commitments. Now everyone is waiting for December 15 (December 6) when the Agency will announce the results of its review of Iran's cooperation. Looking at the next two months, should we still expect more questions from the Agency, or will the Agency's experts start preparing their final report from here on? My prediction is that the Agency will have more questions for Iran in these two months. It is hard to imagine that Iran has suddenly fully answered all 12 remaining issues that have been pending for years. If Iran has done this, that would be great, but it is likely that some or perhaps all of Iran's answers will have ambiguities, and the Agency will need to pose more questions. Since the December report is the final report in this regard, the Agency must conduct its review in the best possible way. These are tough questions, and I do not believe the Agency will ultimately be fully satisfied with the answers, but we will have to see if Iran provides sufficient explanations and access to the Agency for it to say that it can finally close this file. You also mentioned minimal cooperation and that the answers are likely to have ambiguities. Which parts of these 12 questions do you think are harder for Iran? All 12 questions are related in some way to the militarization of Iran's nuclear program. Some of these questions involve very serious allegations, for example about experiments related to explosion modeling; although not with nuclear weapons, but experimental activities in this area. Until summer (this year), Iran had answered less than two questions. I do not know which one is more important; I think all these questions are significant. The issue of the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program (PMD) is the most important part of the concerns related to Iran's nuclear program. There has been evidence in this regard that may not have been definitive but was quite substantial. Therefore, it is important that this issue is resolved. The best way would be for Iran to say that it has taken actions in the past regarding the militarization of its nuclear program and will not do so anymore, to dismiss the related individuals, and to change the program's objective, but I doubt Iran will do this. Therefore, I think it will also be difficult for the Agency to publish a report that is completely positive. It is true that this report is not directly and definitively related to the implementation of the agreement, but if this report does not signify the Agency's complete satisfaction, then how are Iran and the six countries supposed to move towards implementing the agreement? The December report of the Agency is not directly related to the day of the agreement's implementation. The actions Iran must take based on the Joint Action Plan include removing the core of the Arak reactor, collecting 14,000 centrifuges, and completing the destruction of the remaining low-enriched uranium. It has not been explicitly stated that Iran must satisfy the Agency regarding PMD. However, the Agency's dissatisfaction politically complicates matters for other countries in terms of implementing the agreement. Therefore, Iran must do its utmost to ensure that this cooperation satisfies the Agency.