Markets and Iran's Nuclear File; Betting on an Agreement

The perspective of economic circles on the outcome of the Lausanne talks regarding Iran's nuclear file is the subject of a conversation between Reza Valizadeh and Fereydoun Khavand, an economist based in Paris. Radio Farda - As the talks between Iran and the 'P5+1' group approach their most sensitive stages, how do economic circles view the future of these negotiations? Fereydoun Khavand, in a conversation with Reza Valizadeh, discusses the market's optimism regarding the negotiations. It seems that a very large part of economic circles both in Tehran and internationally are betting on the success of Iran's talks with the six powerful countries regarding the nuclear file, and have generally concluded that the path for lifting economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic will be opened. Starting from Tehran, what signs of optimism are there among the country's economic circles regarding the favorable outcome of the ongoing nuclear talks? The most important sign of this optimism can be seen in the Tehran stock market, which had fallen to the 63,000 unit channel at the end of the last Iranian year, but at the beginning of the new year, alongside the progress of the nuclear negotiations, it has revived and particularly in the past two or three days has risen above the 65,000 unit mark. The statements of many representatives of Iran's business circles also reflect a strong scent of optimism regarding the nuclear file. However, tying a country's economic fate to foreign policy is not a healthy phenomenon. There is no doubt that all economies react to geopolitical data, but not with the intensity and continuity seen in Iran's economic environment. In Iran, a situation has arisen where business circles are more concerned about the initiatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Mohammad Javad Zarif than the decisions of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. This is not a healthy situation. How about the world? What factors indicate the optimism of economic circles regarding the results of the talks over Iran's nuclear file? The most important indicator in this regard is the price of oil, which has decreased in recent days, and many Western media outlets, from Reuters to the Daily Telegraph, attribute this event to the progress made on Iran's nuclear file. In fact, oil market traders have concluded that with a final agreement on the Islamic Republic's nuclear file and the lifting of sanctions, Iran's oil exports will double in the not-too-distant future, and given the increase in supply, oil prices will fall. However, the decrease in oil prices over the past few days is not significant, around three to four percent. But in a situation where Yemen is engulfed in war, it is strange that we are not witnessing a spike in oil prices near Saudi Arabia's oil resources. The likely reason for this situation is that the increase in Iran's oil export capacity seems imminent.