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Member of the Budget and Planning Commission: $40 Oil Price in the Budget is Not Logical

Jan 31, 2026 January 31, 2026 2 min read 📰 Radio Farda
📋 Key Takeaway

Jafar Qaderi, a member of the Iranian parliament's Budget and Planning Commission, stated that the approval of the 1395 budget is unlikely before the upcoming elections, and criticized the proposed $40 oil price as unrealistic given current market conditions. This highlights the challenges Iran faces in budgeting amid fluctuating oil prices and political pressures.

🔍 Quick Context Guide
💡 Bottom Line: Iran's budgetary challenges reflect broader economic instability and political pressures ahead of elections.

👥 Key Players

Jafar Qaderi MENTIONED
Member of the Budget and Planning Commission
"Qaderi's insights reflect the challenges faced by the Iranian government in budgeting amidst political and economic pressures."
Abdolreza Masri MENTIONED
Member of the Iranian Parliament
"Masri's comments highlight the legislative focus on the Sixth Development Plan, indicating the prioritization of long-term economic strategies."
Iranian Government MENTIONED
Budget Proposer
"The government’s proposed budget reflects its economic strategy and reliance on oil revenues, which are critical for funding public services."

📰 What Happened

Jafar Qaderi criticized the proposed $40 oil price in Iran's budget for 1395 as unrealistic, citing current market conditions. He also indicated that the budget approval is unlikely before upcoming elections, highlighting political and economic challenges.

  • The proposed budget for 1395 is set at 952 trillion tomans (approximately $300 billion).
  • Current oil prices are significantly lower than the proposed budget price, affecting revenue projections.

💡 Why It Matters

🇮🇷 For Iran: The budget approval delay and unrealistic oil price projections could hinder economic planning and stability in Iran, especially before elections.
🌍 Regional: Regional economies that are similarly oil-dependent may be affected by Iran's economic challenges and oil price trends.
🌐 International: International stakeholders, particularly those involved in oil markets, may see fluctuations in oil prices that affect global markets.

📚 Background

Iran's economy is significantly affected by oil prices, and the recent implementation of the JCPOA aimed to improve its economic situation. However, fluctuating oil prices pose ongoing challenges.

Oil prices and global markets Iran's economic policies post-JCPOA
📡 Source: STATE MEDIA
📊 Confidence: 70%
The Fars News Agency is considered a state-affiliated outlet, which may reflect government perspectives and priorities.

A member of the Budget and Planning Commission of the Islamic Consultative Assembly emphasized that "due to the upcoming elections" in Esfand (February-March), there is no possibility of approving the budget bill for the year 1395 (2016) this year, and at the same time, a $40 price for oil is also "not logical." Jafar Qaderi stated on Bahman 4 (January 24) to the Fars News Agency, "Considering the current conditions and the upcoming elections, the approval of the 1395 budget is not possible, therefore the review of the budget bill will start after the parliamentary elections." Previously, at the end of Dey (January), after the budget bill was presented to the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Abdolreza Masri, a member of the board of this institution, announced that its approval would be postponed to next year. He had stated at that time that the Iranian parliament "must focus on reviewing the Sixth Development Plan because its approval will be time-consuming." Mr. Qaderi also added in an interview with Fars News Agency that the $40 price set for each barrel of oil in the next year's budget "is not logical given that the current oil price is less than $27" and "there should be more discussion and examination about it." The price of oil continued its downward trend after the implementation of the JCPOA and the announcement of Iran's plan to increase production, falling to its lowest level in 12 years at one point. However, on Bahman 5 (January 25), the price of the main energy source in Asian markets was on the rise, with Brent and U.S. crude oil reaching $32.50. The President of Iran presented the budget bill for 1395 on Sunday, Dey 27 (January 17), just hours after the joint statement of Iran and the European Union regarding the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In the budget bill for 1395, the price of each barrel of oil is set between $35 to $40. The budget for 1395, which is considered the first budget after the implementation of the JCPOA, is set at 952 trillion tomans, equivalent to approximately $300 billion.

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Translated from the original and edited for English readers. View original source →

Translation confidence: 85%

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