Middle East in 2016: Egypt

The description of annual events in each of the Middle Eastern countries exceeds the capacity of a single article. Therefore, an attempt has been made here to analyze selected events from the past year in Egypt within limited frameworks and to avoid mentioning less significant events. Egypt's economy - According to World Bank data, a combination of negative internal and external factors limited Egypt's economic growth throughout 2016. Most economic sectors operated below their actual capacity, and particularly following the crash of the Russian plane in the Sinai desert, the tourism market faced a significant recession. Liquidity decreased, and externally, the economic downturn in the Eurozone negatively impacted Egypt's economic growth. Additionally, factors such as falling oil prices in Gulf countries also negatively affected Egypt's economy and balance of payments, resulting in the private sector facing an unprecedented crisis. The decline in revenues was most evident in the gross national income. At the end of the year, considering the very difficult year Egypt had gone through, the Central Bank of Egypt announced its intention to float the Egyptian pound to curb the risk of further decline and to combat the black market for the US dollar in the country. Interestingly, Central Bank officials tried to distance themselves from the political line of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi when explaining economic plans. What is certain, and will be explained in other sections, is that Egypt is trying to prepare itself for the next presidential term in the United States and, in line with political and strategic changes, to somehow rescue its economy, which has been continuously regressing since 2011. This is in a situation where imports of foreign goods in Egypt have reached a minimum, foreign currencies are almost scarce, and new cars are not being imported. In addition to the lack of luxury goods, consumables and food items, even sugar is on the list of scarce goods. Egypt and the nuclear reactor - Since the summer of 2016, rumors about the construction of the first nuclear power facility in Egypt have gained strength, and as can be guessed, these facilities are to be built by the Russians. A report published by Reuters in May indicated that the contract for the first Egyptian facility had been signed with Russia. For this deal, the Russians will lend $25 billion to the Egyptians to build and operate the nuclear power facility, to be repaid over a 35-year period with an annual interest rate of 3 percent. The loan consumption will last for 13 years (2016 to 2028), but Egypt will start repayment on October 15, 2029, and will pay it back in 43 installments over 22 years. Egypt and human rights - The year 2016 was not only not a year of gains for Egypt in terms of human rights, but it was also a year of regression and decline. In the last days of December 2015, Egyptians shut down a reputable publishing institution known as Merit in Cairo and confiscated all its equipment. Following that, the Townhouse theater and art gallery suffered the same fate. This action was part of a crackdown that began in the weeks leading up to the end of the year with the closure of groups of journalists advocating for freedom of expression. It was clear that 2016 would not be a good year for human rights and civic activists at least. In late January 2016, the famous Egyptian cartoonist, Islam Gawish, who had 1.6 million followers on Facebook (now reduced to about 250,000), was imprisoned. Egypt maintained its third position in the annual statistics of imprisoned journalists. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, as of December 1, 2016, there were 259 journalists imprisoned worldwide. According to the journalists' syndicate, 29, and according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 25 Egyptian journalists were behind bars, and for the first time, the head of the syndicate and two of his deputies were among the prisoners. China, Egypt, and Turkey are the top three countries in the list of imprisoned journalists. In addition to journalists, women's rights activists and feminists have also been subjected to repression. Among them, Izzah Suleiman, the founder of the Women's Legal Aid Center and a human rights activist in Egypt, was arrested in the first week of December without any announced reason or charge. Politics and religion - In December 2015, when Egyptians voted for their parliamentary representatives, an Egyptian cleric on one of Egypt's state channels told the people, "Follow those in power, especially the highest figure at the top of the power pyramid." He indirectly referred to General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as "the shadow of God on earth." Shortly after that, when the Russian plane crashed in the Sinai desert, killing 224 people amid economic recession and a downturn in the tourism market, Egypt's Ministry of Religious Endowments encouraged clerics to use hotels and resources in the Sinai desert for holidays and recreation. This issue is significant because many Egyptian Muslims consider this act a major sin. Therefore, if clerics take the lead in tourism, it may appear legitimate in the minds of Egyptian Muslims to go on holiday and spend money in the tourism sector. Fear of Islamists after the massive protests of 2013 led to General Sisi's coup and the ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood from power. On January 25, 2016, Egypt's Ministry of Religious Endowments instructed all clerics to prevent any calls for protests on the fifth anniversary of the ousting of Hosni Mubarak, as it would lead to "vandalism and destruction" and is considered a "complete crime." Alongside this, former military commander Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is trying to present himself as a reformer and calls on the public to a religious revolution and a fight against fundamentalism. However, instead of discussing the revolutionary Islam he envisions, he has focused on shutting down unregistered mosques or unauthorized preachers and has put religious institutions in a kind of stranglehold. Analysts warn that the danger of increasing polarization in Egyptian society remains. Reduction of Mohamed Morsi's conviction - The Egyptian Supreme Court finally annulled Mohamed Morsi's life sentence in November after a year of violations and issued an order for retrial. A court in 2014 had sentenced Morsi and five senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death on charges of espionage in favor of Qatar, the Palestinian group Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This sentence was later commuted to life imprisonment. Mohamed Morsi is the only president in Egypt's recent history referred to as president, elected in 2012 by democratic votes. He was ousted following protests in 2013 and ultimately military intervention. The Coptic Christian minority in Egypt - Since 2013, there has been a wave of attacks by radical Islamists, particularly supporters of Mohamed Morsi, who was ousted by General Sisi's coup, accusing Copts of supporting the coup regime. In contrast, Copts complain that during Morsi's rule and the Islamists affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, they faced discrimination in all areas of social life, work, and even education and universities, and at that time they were considered supporters of Hosni Mubarak. About ten percent of Egypt's 92 million population are Coptic Christians. The Coptic Church and the Christian community, despite not witnessing a significant change in their daily lives, support General Sisi, but Coptic Christians in Egypt continue to be targeted by terrorist attacks. Bombing at the Coptic Church in Cairo - One of the latest attacks against Christians was the bombing on December 10 at the church in the Abbasiyah neighborhood of Cairo. Coinciding with the birthday of the Prophet of Islam and on the eve of the Christian New Year, on December 10, a bomb explosion at St. Mark's Cathedral, one of the largest churches in Egypt located in the Abbasiyah neighborhood of Cairo, claimed 28 lives and left 70 injured. The government declared three days of public mourning, but this event has been recorded as a bitter event in Egypt's recent history and shows the depth of the political system's vulnerability under Sisi. Affiliates of the terrorist group "ISIS," which are mainly concentrated in the Sinai desert, claimed responsibility for the bombing. The occurrence of this event on the eve of the New Year dealt a significant blow to Egypt's vulnerable tourism industry. Demonstrators who gathered outside the church after the explosion demanded the resignation of the Minister of Interior. The head of the Defense and Security Committee in the Egyptian parliament accused Qatar of providing financial and media support, and shortly after that, Adel Habara, an Islamist who had been in prison for nearly three years, was executed on December 15; it is said that this execution was a reaction to the bombing of the Coptic church and aimed at calming Christians and the international community. In May 2016, an Egyptian civilian aircraft of EgyptAir crashed in the Mediterranean Sea, killing 15 French nationals, 40 Egyptians, and 11 crew members. Finally, after months, French officials announced that signs of explosives had been found in the wreckage and parts of the plane, implicitly declaring the incident as a terrorist act. Egypt's foreign relations - A 180-degree shift in Egypt's relations with Saudi Arabia. Since General Sisi's coup in 2013, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and to some extent Kuwait decided to provide unlimited support to Sisi's military regime. The main reason for this support has been concerns about the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in those countries. General Sisi is a natural ally of these countries against the common threat of the Muslim Brotherhood gaining power. Throughout 2016, this support continued, but at the same time, Egypt's relations with other countries in the region, including Russia and Iran, gradually transformed to the extent that it can be said that from the second half of 2016, Egypt's relationship with Saudi Arabia tilted negatively, so that by early December, the theory that Egypt was distancing itself from Saudi Arabia intensified. Egypt turns its back on Saudi Arabia - Over the past three years, about $25 billion has flowed from Saudi Arabia to Egypt. This money was used to control Egypt's economic crisis and prevented the storm-tossed and coup-ridden country from collapsing. However, after the death of King Abdullah, relations between the two countries changed, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia experienced disagreements over support or non-support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Although the Saudis invited Egypt to participate in the coalition for the war in Yemen, the Egyptians reluctantly accepted it only for logistical roles and refrained from participating in military operations. In October 2016, following lobbying by Mohammad Javad Zarif, Egypt was asked to join the regional talks regarding Syria. Perhaps Iran wanted Egypt's presence alongside Iraq and Iran to create a different voice from Saudi Arabia and its coalition and to provide a more suitable environment for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Iran and Russia. In any case, this move was effective in changing Egypt's stance on supporting Bashar al-Assad's regime. A few days later, Egypt voted in favor of a Russian-proposed resolution in the Security Council. However, the essence of the resolution, which was aimed at supporting Russia in the Syrian war, faced criticism and did not reach final approval. At the same time, the Saudi representative described Cairo's vote as "painful." A Saudi diplomat tweeted, "I'm sorry Egypt, but voting in favor of the Russian draft makes me doubt that you are the mother of Arabs and the world." Shortly after that, during the annual meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, following General Sisi's claims about the ability of the Egyptian people to endure economic hardships, Iyad bin Amin Madani, the Saudi Secretary-General of the organization, mocked Sisi's remarks and even mistakenly conflated his name with that of the President of Tunisia. However, a few days later, following criticism from Egyptians, Iyad bin Amin Madani resigned from the Secretary-General position and was replaced by another Saudi named Yusuf al-Thunayyan. Many regional political observers believe that Saudi behavior is pushing Egyptians toward Saudi Arabia's rivals, including Iran. Likely, the friendship between Egypt and Saudi Arabia will turn into rivalry or even hostility in the long run. As we have seen in the past, Egyptian governments, when they have been powerful, have claimed leadership and dominance over the Arab world. New developments in the Middle East and Egypt's influence over Palestinians on one hand, and the good relations between Egypt and Israel on the other hand, indicate that the Egyptian government will remain a friend and ally of the West and, when it has sufficient support and power, will try to use it against regional powers. Egypt's shift towards Russia, Syria, the US, and Donald Trump - In 2016, criticism of human rights conditions in Egypt somewhat subsided with the onset of the US presidential elections. However, in other economic areas, everything faced a kind of deadlock, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's policies, especially regarding economic opening, made no progress and failed to gain President Obama's support. For example, Egypt's requests for financial assistance from the World Bank in the face of fluctuating Egyptian currency rates, dependence on fuel and food subsidies, etc., did not receive significant assistance from the US. In the first week of December, Egypt once again made a calculated move indicating planning for the upcoming US presidency. Donald Trump had repeatedly spoken during his election campaign about his priorities for helping Egypt and fighting "Islamic terrorism and fundamentalist Islam." Now that Trump is about to take office, Egypt is rapidly changing its foreign policy direction and moving closer to the US. The fight against "fundamentalist Islam" is the connecting link of this proximity. Egypt hopes to turn this common ground into significant long-term economic cooperation. Unlike Obama, who had explicitly questioned Egypt's status as a US ally a few years ago, Donald Trump sees in General Sisi the ability to maintain regional stability, and Egypt intends to make the most of this situation.