Military Balance of Countries in 2016

The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, known as a neutral, independent, and non-governmental think tank that researches global security, military conflicts, and defense, published its annual assessment of military power and defense spending of 171 countries worldwide in a book titled Military Balance 2016 on Tuesday, February 9. The report emphasizes the significant increase in challenges to the global security environment compared to the late 1980s, highlighting that the rise in terrorist attacks in the final months of 2015 and the resulting crises have complicated the work of defense and security planners worldwide. According to the report, the expansion of advanced military capabilities and innovative technologies globally is set to further complicate the military power balance among countries. Access to military-applicable technologies has increased for countries, as most of these technologies, which were once developed in government laboratories and research centers, now originate from the private sector and are often created for civilian use. Consequently, governments face serious challenges in monitoring the proliferation of new technologies and the ambiguous nature of their applications, which may be military, civilian, or dual-use. Based on the 2015 spending rankings in the Military Balance book, the United States remains at the top of the global military spending table, as in previous years. The highest military expenditures in 2015 were allocated to the following 15 countries (with figures in parentheses referring to costs and rankings from 2014): 1) United States $597.5 billion (581 billion, rank 1); 2) China $145.8 billion (129.4 billion, rank 2); 3) Saudi Arabia $81.9 billion (80.8 billion, rank 3); 4) Russia $65.6 billion (70 billion, rank 4); 5) United Kingdom $56.2 billion (61.8 billion, rank 5); 6) India $48 billion (45.2 billion, rank 8); 7) France $46.8 billion (53.1 billion, rank 6); 8) Japan $41 billion (47.7 billion, rank 7); 9) Germany $36.7 billion (43.2 billion, rank 9); 10) South Korea $33.5 billion (34.3 billion, rank 10); 11) Brazil $24.3 billion (31.9 billion, rank 11); 12) Australia $22.8 billion (22.5 billion, rank 14); 13) Italy $21.6 billion (24.3 billion, rank 12); 14) Iraq $21.1 billion (18.9 billion, rank 15); 15) Israel $18.6 billion (23.2 billion, rank 13). The total military spending of these 15 countries exceeded $1,261.4 billion, while the military spending of the other 156 countries in the world did not exceed $320 billion. Russia's spending decreased by $4.4 billion compared to 2014. Saudi Arabia remains in third place and increased its military spending by over $1 billion compared to 2014. Iraq's spending rose one rank, increasing by $2.2 billion compared to the previous year. In contrast, Israel reduced its military spending by $4.6 billion. According to the annual report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the decades-long technological superiority of the West, particularly the United States, is declining in the face of advancements made by countries like China and Russia, especially in the fields of security and cyber weapons. The report notes the ongoing discussions in European countries about how to strengthen their military capabilities, mentioning that a NATO summit will be held in Warsaw in July of this year. Nevertheless, John Chipman, the director of the institute, stated that NATO countries, despite facing increasing potential threats, have yet to make a decisive decision regarding the enhancement of their military capabilities and spending, and the downward trend in their defense spending, which began in 1989 after the fall of the Berlin Wall, continues. According to the report, the number of fighter jets in the UK and France, which were 475 and 579 respectively in 1991, has decreased to 194 and 271 after 25 years. Similarly, over a 25-year period from 1990 to 2015, the number of combat battalions in the five NATO countries (the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the US European Command) decreased from 649 to 185. In contrast to this decline, the report emphasizes that Russia's combat capability in its western military district, which overlooks Eastern European countries, has increased, recommending enhanced cooperation among NATO members to mitigate potential threats from Russia to these countries. Based on a decision made at the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, 26 European members of the organization committed to allocating at least 2% of their GDP to defense. However, the institute's statistics show that, except for four NATO members (the UK, Poland, Estonia, and Greece), the remaining countries have failed to meet this commitment, with their average defense budgets not exceeding 1.1% of their GDP. The US defense spending, which was 4.63% of its GDP in 2010, dropped to 3.27% in 2015. Nonetheless, John Chipman noted that US military spending in Europe increased fourfold to $3.4 billion, driven by growing concerns about potential Russian threats to Eastern European countries, especially the Baltic states, with the US aiming to reassure these countries against Russian "threats and intimidation." Furthermore, Chipman explained that military capability in the 21st century is not limited to the number of aircraft, tanks, and ships, but also includes technologies such as cybersecurity, cyber weapons, and drones. The use of smart unmanned systems, particularly drones, has become widespread in many countries, and the number of countries possessing drones has doubled in the past five years. China has made significant strides in drone production, exporting some to Iraq and Nigeria. Concurrently, the report states that China has also achieved substantial advancements in the development and production of ballistic missiles. Currently, the US base on Guam (in the Micronesia islands) is within the range of China's anti-ship ballistic missiles. In 2015, China increased its defense budget by 12.6% compared to the previous year and continues to strengthen its military capabilities in various domains. In the naval domain, the country is expected to operationalize more advanced Type 52-D destroyers soon and is currently constructing its first aircraft carrier. Additionally, China's ongoing construction of artificial and disputed islands in the South China Sea in 2015 significantly heightened tensions in the Far East, prompting several countries in the region to enhance their military capabilities and strengthen ties with Japan and the US. Aside from the aforementioned tensions, military spending in Asian countries rose in 2015, totaling $100 billion more than the defense spending of NATO member countries in Europe. One notable point in the annual assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies is the comprehensive and final nuclear agreement in Vienna, officially titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). John Chipman remarked on the outcome of the nuclear talks, stating, "2015 was a good year in terms of news related to the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." However, the many doubts regarding the positive quality of the JCPOA cannot be overlooked, but there is consensus that this agreement will delay Iran's access to nuclear weapons by 10 or perhaps 15 years. Nevertheless, the lifting of sanctions in exchange for limiting Iran's nuclear program may lead to an arms race in the Middle East. According to the report, the JCPOA and the gradual lifting of sanctions against Iran will allow Tehran to modernize and upgrade a significant portion of its outdated military hardware from the 1970s, which is considered obsolete and out of service, addressing some of the weaknesses in its conventional forces. If realized, this could lead to changes in the composition and structure of the military capabilities of countries in the region. Arab countries in the southern Gulf, aware of Iran's superiority in military personnel numbers, will strive to enhance their capabilities to counter Iran by purchasing more advanced weapons, including faster and more precise missiles, despite the significant drop in oil prices, and closer military cooperation among these countries is not unexpected. The report states that in recent years, some Arab countries in the region have incurred heavy costs for military acquisitions, including air defense systems, due to concerns over Iran's ballistic missiles. Washington has made efforts to unify the military capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, but the US remains the core of air defense in the region. The report from the mentioned think tank highlights Iran's strength in the cyber domain, stating that in September 2015, by order of Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Council of Cyberspace was established as a group for policymaking and oversight of cyber activities in the country. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also continued its activities in this area by establishing a Cyber Defense Command, although the relationship between groups like the Cyber Army and the armed forces and other organizations is not clearly defined. Nevertheless, Iran is striving to enhance its cyber capabilities through necessary investments and has hacked several foreign organizations to date. The Islamic State (ISIS) report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies states that by the end of 2015, ISIS still controlled a significant portion of territory in Syria and Iraq, with a population of nearly five million, and despite airstrikes from the US and coalition countries, it was largely successful in attracting fighters. By mid-2015, nearly 25,000 individuals from foreign countries (mostly from Arab and Asian countries and some Western countries) had joined ISIS, undermining the anti-terrorism and anti-radicalization efforts of Western countries in their societies. The direct confrontation of coalition countries with ISIS was through airstrikes, and by mid-October 2015, the US and other coalition countries had bombed ISIS positions 7,600 times, with 4,900 sorties in Iraq and 2,700 in Syria. According to the same report, ISIS and its loyal groups cannot be eliminated solely through military means. Confronting ISIS requires collective efforts, long-term policies, a combination of political, security, military, and intelligence tools, and leveraging development and reconstruction capacities, as well as reaching agreements on objectives and methods to achieve them.