Military Balance of Countries in 2017

The International Institute for Strategic Studies, as it does every year, published its assessment of the military power and defense spending of 171 countries worldwide in a book titled "Military Balance 2017" on February 14, 2017. This institute, headquartered in London, conducts research on global security, political risks, and military conflicts. The director of the institute, John Chipman, during the book's launch ceremony, referred to the ongoing types and number of security challenges in the world, stating that war and instability continue in Africa, the Middle East, and in Europe, particularly in Ukraine. According to John Chipman, in East Asia, North Korea continues to enhance its missile capabilities, and transnational terrorists have posed significant challenges to countries worldwide due to an increase in their attacks in 2016. He believes that the number of countries willing to resort to military options to pursue their national interests is on the rise. The ranking of military expenditures in 2016, based on the Military Balance book, shows that the United States remains at the top of the global military spending table. The military expenditures of 15 countries in 2016 are ranked as follows (figures in parentheses refer to the costs and ranks of 2015): 1) USA $604.5 billion ($597.5 billion, rank 1); 2) China $145 billion ($145.8 billion, rank 2); 3) Russia $58.9 billion ($65.6 billion, rank 4); 4) Saudi Arabia $56.9 billion ($81.9 billion, rank 3); 5) UK $52.5 billion ($56.2 billion, rank 5); 6) India $51.1 billion ($48 billion, rank 6); 7) Japan $47.3 billion ($41 billion, rank 8); 8) France $47.2 billion ($46.8 billion, rank 7); 9) Germany $38.3 billion ($36.7 billion, rank 9); 10) South Korea $33.8 billion ($33.5 billion, rank 10); 11) Australia $24.2 billion ($22.8 billion, rank 12); 12) Brazil $23.5 billion ($24.3 billion, rank 11); 13) Italy $22.3 billion ($21.6 billion, rank 13); 14) Israel $19 billion ($18.6 billion, rank 15); 15) Iraq $18.1 billion ($21.1 billion, rank 14). As the above ranking table indicates, U.S. military spending in 2016 increased by $7 billion compared to the previous year, reaching $604.5 billion. Meanwhile, the military expenditures of the other fourteen countries in this table totaled $638.1 billion. The military spending of 156 other countries in the world in 2016 did not exceed $305 billion. U.S. military spending, which is more than four times that of China and ten times that of Russia, constitutes 39.1 percent of total military expenditures worldwide. In this regard, the percentage of the ten other countries in the table compared to total military expenditures worldwide is as follows: China 9.4 percent; Russia 3.8 percent; Saudi Arabia 3.7 percent; UK 3.4 percent; India 3.3 percent; Japan 3.1 percent; France 3.1 percent; Germany 2.5 percent; South Korea 2.2 percent; and Australia 1.6 percent. Military spending in Asia exceeds that of Europe. According to the annual report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, from 2012 to 2016, the real value of defense spending by Asian countries has risen annually by 5 to 6 percent. Meanwhile, total military spending by countries worldwide in 2016 decreased by 0.4 percent compared to the previous year. This decline, rooted in reduced spending by Middle Eastern countries, has been somewhat balanced by increased spending in Asia. Asia, which has surpassed Europe in military spending over the past six years since 2012, had military expenditures in 2016 that were 1.3 times those of European countries. China, as reported in the annual report of the mentioned institute, is on the verge of parity with Western countries in military technology, especially in the air domain, and therefore, the general perception that the West has superiority over China in terms of weapons and military systems can no longer be taken for granted. In the past, China's productions were focused on modeling weapons from the Soviet era or Russia, but now research, development, and production of entirely indigenous systems, along with allocating necessary budgets to key sectors of the military industries, are at the center of this country's attention. Additionally, China intends to export some of its advanced weapons and systems to the market. China's military spending is 1.8 times the combined spending of Japan and South Korea and accounts for one-third of total military spending in Asian countries. China's naval capabilities have increased with the use of advanced weapons, and many of its modern surface units are equipped with phased array radars. The country has three cruisers under construction and has operationalized or will soon deploy 13 very modern multi-role destroyers. In its efforts to transform its navy into a strategic navy (or blue-water navy), China has established a military base in Djibouti. In the air domain, China has added missiles to its arsenal that very few advanced aerospace countries can produce. In one instance, China has introduced an air-to-air missile with a range of 300 kilometers, which is not found in the arsenals of Western countries. Alongside its increasing technological advancements, China has also begun exporting some of its advanced weapons, including armed drones. Therefore, it is predicted that countries unable to procure these weapons from Western countries will turn to China. Russia, according to estimates from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, saw its military spending in 2016 decrease by $6.7 billion compared to the previous year. This reduction is closely related to the drop in oil prices. Russia is considered one of the main security concerns for European countries, and its armed forces are in a better position due to Moscow's renewed investment in military industries. The process of replacing old weapons in the Russian armed forces with new ones continues, and these forces have significant capabilities in armored, artillery, and electronic warfare. Data from the mentioned institute shows that some of Russia's missiles and rockets have greater ranges than similar American weapons. In recent years, Russia has showcased advanced weapons and systems domestically and has utilized air-launched cruise missiles, naval, and submarine-launched missiles in external operations, particularly in Syria. Russia has expanded its military activities in Syria, and its overall performance in this country indicates that it is not hesitant to use military options and deploy forces to protect its geopolitical interests. Nevertheless, experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies believe that Russia's intervention in Syria is part of Moscow's political bargaining process on the international stage. NATO, USA Donald Trump's election as President of the United States may affect the nature of the presence of some U.S. military units abroad. Signs indicate that the security and military policies of Barack Obama will not be followed. One day after the publication of "Military Balance 2017," James Mattis, in his first trip to Europe as U.S. Secretary of Defense, urged NATO ministers in Brussels to fulfill their commitments related to military spending to ensure that U.S. support for NATO does not diminish. In light of Russia's military actions in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, military spending for each of the 28 NATO member countries was set at 2 percent of GDP. In 2015, only five countries— the USA, the UK, Poland, Greece, and Estonia—achieved the 2 percent military spending target, and in 2016, the UK and Poland fell short of reaching the established threshold. Nevertheless, experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies say that accepting the 2 percent benchmark will not necessarily yield the best defensive results, and instead, the desired outcome will be achieved with greater focus on the effectiveness of member countries and their careful attention to the requirements for enhancing their capabilities. The institute's annual report states that NATO member countries, if adhering to the 2 percent benchmark in 2016, would have needed to increase their military spending by 40 percent, but in practice, most countries refrained from doing so. Middle East Data from "Military Balance 2017" indicates that total military spending by Middle Eastern countries in 2016 decreased by 8 percent compared to the previous year. The main reason for this unprecedented reduction over the past six years is rooted in the decline of the region's GDP and the drop in crude oil prices. In this context, the most significant factor in the reduction of military spending in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia, whose military expenditure decreased from $81.9 billion in 2015 to $56.9 billion in 2016, a reduction of 30 percent. The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, taking a broad look at the security situation in the Middle East, states that it does not appear that stability and calm will be established in Iraq, Syria, and Libya in North Africa in the near future, and regional and international interventions have added to the complexities of the war and crisis in these countries. In Iraq and Syria, where foreign powers ostensibly agree on fighting ISIS, they pursue conflicting objectives. Russia's entry into the Syrian civil war and the United States' reluctance to intervene directly in this war or send ground units to fight ISIS face-to-face in Iraq and Syria have changed regional countries' perceptions of these two powers. Russia's military intervention in Syria, which began in September 2015, improved Bashar al-Assad's position and the status of the Syrian army, and despite the challenges faced at the beginning, ultimately changed the course of the Syrian civil war and increased its diplomatic and military influence. Regarding ISIS, the report from the aforementioned institute notes the progress made against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2016, stating that coalition airstrikes against ISIS facilities, command posts, commanders, economic facilities, and logistical supply lines have weakened the group, resulting in ISIS losing a significant portion of its occupied territories and facing difficulties in attracting fighters. According to the report's authors, the nature of the Iraqi army's operations, which has been engaged in fighting ISIS since the fall of 2014, has gradually shifted from defending strategic areas and locations to offensive operations, and the execution of operations to retake Mosul indicates that this army's capabilities have significantly improved over the past three years. The report emphasizes the important role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) in operations against ISIS, noting that while some Sunni militants and tribal fighters have joined the Hashd al-Shaabi, the majority of this organization consists of Shia militants who often receive training, guidance, and weapons and equipment from the Islamic Republic of Iran through the Revolutionary Guards or Quds Force. Yemen The internal war in Yemen has been ongoing for over two years, and there are no signs of resolving this crisis. The coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, which supports Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, has failed to translate its relative military progress into political leverage and influence. According to the annual report from the mentioned institute, Houthi fighters and their allies are fiercely resisting despite continuous attacks from the Saudi-led coalition and international isolation. In this context, not all Yemeni forces supported by the coalition are under Hadi's command, and various and disparate groups fighting against the Houthis have not formed a unified national force, and their fighting and progress depend on local alliances. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been compelled to enter into various agreements with local tribes and politicians. This approach, given that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited their military personnel presence in the Yemeni battlefield, has led these two countries to heavily rely on local tribes and support. As a result, these countries have not been able to achieve significant progress in Yemen or reduce the activities of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The report's authors further state that while there is no clear horizon for ending the internal war in Yemen in the short term, the biggest challenge for all parties involved in this war will be the post-war period, which may emerge due to the exhaustion of the warring sides or goodwill from the fighting groups. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are aware of the costs of establishing stability in Yemen after the civil war, a country that was the poorest in the Arabian Peninsula even before this war and had a shaky stability at that time. Iran The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates Iran's military spending in 2016 at $15.9 billion, reflecting a 12 percent increase compared to the previous year. Iran's weaponry, according to this report, is outdated, but its military personnel, both in the army and the Revolutionary Guards, are experienced, and Iran's ballistic missile arsenal is the most important factor in deterring threats and ensuring the country's security. The report mentions the involvement of the Revolutionary Guards in the Syrian civil war and support for Bashar al-Assad, considering the Quds Force as Iran's most important military arm abroad, and adds that Russia used the Nojeh airbase during 2016 for conducting air operations and bombings in Syria. The Iranian armed forces suffer from the obsolescence of the weapons they possess, although they have shown initiative and utilized unconventional warfare tactics.