Military Balance of Countries Worldwide in 2018

As is customary every year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London published its annual assessment of the military capabilities and defense spending of countries worldwide in a book titled "Military Balance 2018" on Wednesday, February 14, 2018, consisting of 10 chapters and 520 pages. John Chipman, the director of the institute, stated at the book launch that the challenges arising from the "collapse of the security environment" faced by defense policymakers around the world have made international relations more uncertain, alongside the expansion of advanced military capabilities. "Transnational terrorist groups drew the attention of security and military forces worldwide with their attacks throughout 2017. The continuation of war and insecurity in parts of the Middle East and Africa overshadowed the security environment in those two regions. In Europe, a low-intensity war continued in eastern Ukraine. Russia strengthened its military presence along its border with Ukraine, which was a concern for NATO member countries. In Asia, North Korea launched its first intercontinental missile and conducted a nuclear test stronger than before. In 2017, China's military programs and activities attracted significant attention. That year, Beijing tested more advanced military systems and deployed some of its military units to more distant regions. Powers like China and Russia have challenged the global supremacy of the United States and its allies. Although war between great powers is not inevitable, countries are systematically and calculatedly preparing for a potential confrontation. In fact, the U.S. national defense strategy, published in January 2018, considers the possibility of war between great powers as one of the major challenges for the United States." The ranking of military expenditures in 2017, based on the Military Balance 2018 report, shows that the United States remains at the top of the global military spending ranking, as in previous years. The military expenditures of 15 countries in 2017 and their comparison with the military expenditures of 2016 and 2015 are as follows: 2015 expenditure (for comparison), 2016 expenditure (for comparison), 2017 expenditure in billion dollars, country, rank in 2017: 597.5 (2015), 604.5 (2016), 602.8 (USA), 1, 145.8 (2015), 145.0 (2016), 150.5 (China), 2, 281.9 (2015), 56.9 (2016), 76.7 (Saudi Arabia), 3, 365.6 (2015), 58.9 (2016), 61.2 (Russia), 4, 448.0 (2015), 51.1 (2016), 52.5 (India), 5, 556.2 (2015), 52.5 (2016), 50.7 (UK), 6, 646.8 (2015), 47.2 (2016), 48.6 (France), 7, 741.0 (2015), 47.3 (2016), 46.0 (Japan), 8, 836.7 (2015), 38.3 (2016), 41.7 (Germany), 9, 933.5 (2015), 33.8 (2016), 35.7 (South Korea), 10, 1024.3 (2015), 23.5 (2016), 29.4 (Brazil), 11, 1122.8 (2015), 24.2 (2016), 25.0 (Australia), 12, 1221.6 (2015), 22.3 (2016), 22.9 (Italy), 13, 1318.6 (2015), 19.0 (2016), 21.6 (Israel), 14, 1421.1 (2015), 18.1 (2016), 19.4 (Iraq), 15. According to this table, U.S. military spending decreased by $1.7 billion compared to 2016, while the spending of the other 14 countries in the same table increased by $43.8 billion compared to the previous year, reaching $681.9 billion. The total military expenditures of the rest of the world were below $300 billion. The total military expenditures worldwide last year were estimated by the International Institute for Strategic Studies to be nearly $1580 billion. Nevertheless, U.S. military spending in 2017 was four times that of China, nearly ten times that of Russia, and twelve times that of the UK. The above table shows that Russia, the UK, Japan, and Australia dropped one rank in 2017 compared to the previous year, while Saudi Arabia, India, France, and Brazil moved up one rank. Countries like China, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Israel, and Iraq remained stable in terms of ranking. In terms of percentage of spending, the military expenditures of several countries compared to total military spending in 2017 are as follows: USA 38.2%; China 9.5%; Saudi Arabia 4.9%; Russia 3.9%; India 3.3%; UK 3.2%; France 3.1%; Japan 2.9%; Germany 2.6%; and South Korea 2.3%. The percentage of spending by continents and regions in 2017 is reported as follows: North America 39.3%; Asia and the Pacific 24%; Europe 16.3%; the Middle East and North African countries 10.9%; Russia and Eurasia 4.3%; Latin America and the Caribbean 4%; and Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2%. The ranking of military and security expenditures of 15 countries in 2017 based on GDP percentage is as follows: Oman 12.1%, rank 1; Saudi Arabia 11.3%, rank 2; Afghanistan 10.3%, rank 3; Iraq 10.1%, rank 4; Israel 6.2%, rank 5; Republic of Congo 5.7%, rank 6; Algeria 4.9%, rank 7; Jordan 4.8%, rank 8; Kuwait 4.4%, rank 9; Bahrain 4.3%, rank 10; Mali 4.2%, rank 11; Russia 4.0%, rank 12; Azerbaijan 3.9%, rank 13; Armenia 3.7%, rank 14; Iran 3.5%, rank 15. China's significant advancements, according to the report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, indicate that the modernization and updating of the Chinese army has not slowed down, and the country's progress in aerospace has been remarkable. China is expected to operationalize its fifth-generation stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20, by 2020. The addition of this twin-engine stealth fighter to the Chinese Air Force will eliminate the U.S. monopoly in operational stealth fighters. At the same time, China is expected to deploy its latest long-range air-to-air missile, the PL-15, with a range of 300 kilometers, equipped with an active phased array radar with electronic scanning, this year, joining a select group of countries with this capability. The goal of the Chinese Air Force in adding these weapons is to have the capability to challenge the U.S., which has been unrivaled in the air for the past three decades. China has also made advancements at sea. The number of submarines, destroyers, frigates, and patrol ships built in China over the past seventeen years exceeds the total number of ships built in India, Japan, and South Korea during the same period. Iran continues to rely on a mix of old weapons and a relatively trained Revolutionary Guard, as well as its ballistic missile arsenal to secure the political regime. The Revolutionary Guard has increasingly participated in the Syrian civil war to support Assad's military and paramilitary forces. By launching its first Type 55 cruiser [displacing 13,000 tons], China has taken a significant step towards becoming a blue-water (or strategic) navy. The country is now deploying its ships to European waters and its naval base in Djibouti. At the same time, China is expanding its military facilities in the South China Sea. According to the Military Balance 2018 report, China continues its efforts to achieve advanced technology, including in quantum communications and high-performance computers. China's advancements in producing advanced weapons and achieving sophisticated defense technologies indicate that the country is becoming an innovator and pioneer in defense matters and is reaching the level of advanced countries. To achieve this level of advancement, China has increased its defense budget in recent years, tying this increase to its annual GDP growth (between 6 to 7 percent) since 2016. Nevertheless, for China to maximize its military capabilities, it needs to achieve similar advancements in training, doctrine, and tactics. Russia and the deployment of advanced weapons towards Eastern Europe. Russia remains a significant concern for Eastern and Northern European countries. The country has increased the deployment of its advanced weapons in its western regions towards Europe, including the deployment of the S-400 air defense system and Iskander ballistic missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. Although the Russian army continues to add new weapons to its arsenal, the pace of this process is slower than expected due to insufficient budgets and industrial shortcomings. While advanced weapons like the Su-57 (single-pilot, twin-engine, stealth for air superiority and attack) and T-14 tanks will eventually enter service, their production numbers will decrease. This issue is particularly noticeable in the Russian Navy, where the country has shifted from building large surface units to constructing small and diverse units equipped with very precise and advanced weapons. Moscow has shown a willingness to deploy and use its military forces in neighboring countries and beyond. Unlike China, Russia applies the lessons learned from the practical and real use of its military forces in its weapon development plans and personnel training. Europe and efforts to strengthen deterrent capabilities. According to the mentioned institute, the accusations against Moscow regarding its interference in the electoral processes of some Western countries, especially the U.S., and Russia's cyber capabilities and the potential use of these alongside military power have led European countries to reassess their political, industrial, social, and economic vulnerabilities and to reevaluate their traditional military power areas. In this context, cooperation between the European Union and NATO to counter hybrid threats has increased. Russia's activities have prompted several European countries to strengthen their military capabilities. Russia's artillery and precision missile systems have also drawn the attention of Eastern and Northern European countries to strengthen their air and missile defenses. Some of these countries are looking to enhance their air power and create a credible deterrent against Russia by adding Patriot air defense systems to their arsenals. In 2017, European defense spending increased by 3.6% (real value, 2010 base year) compared to the previous year, a trend that has continued since 2015 due to improved economic conditions and changes in threat perception in Europe. Despite this overall increase, the percentage increase in defense spending among EU countries is not uniform. While Germany and Eastern European countries increased their defense budgets in 2017, France and the UK decreased theirs. The UK has refrained from increasing its defense budget by 2% of GDP for two consecutive years. The U.S., NATO, and the European Union. Based on the Military Balance report, Donald Trump's rise to power in the U.S. has led many European leaders to doubt NATO's durability and the U.S. commitment to European security. Trump's views in the early months of his presidency regarding NATO's Article 5, which considers an attack on one member country as an attack on all NATO allies, were unclear and ambiguous. However, in May 2017, during his visit to NATO's new headquarters in Brussels, while criticizing the leaders of some member countries, he conditioned his commitment to the aforementioned article on the increase of other NATO countries' spending to a predetermined level. Nevertheless, in his speech on July 6 of the same year in Warsaw, Trump emphasized the U.S.'s firm commitment to NATO both in practice and in words. The attention of great powers to nuclear weapons has increased, with China, Russia, and the U.S. beginning to modernize and update their nuclear arsenals. In this regard, the U.S. Department of Defense, the Pentagon, has increased the amount allocated to the European Reassurance Initiative in its 2018 budget. Under this program, established in 2014, the U.S. increases its military presence in Europe following Russia's annexation of Crimea, deploying some of its units to Eastern European countries. The European Commission, which acts as the executive body in the European Union, emphasized strengthening the EU's security in a review in June 2017 regarding the future of Europe. In this context, recent EU initiatives to enhance its security and defense capabilities have focused on three main areas: developing practical plans and solutions for increasing cooperation among member states; establishing defense and security organizations at the EU level; and allocating budgets for defense programs. The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies indicates that cooperation between NATO and the EU has been pragmatic since mid-2016, noting that the structural cooperation and interaction between the two have improved compared to the past. Although the EU has more tools than NATO for crisis management and conflict resolution, it faces challenges in terms of capacity and internal cohesion. "If the observed trend continues throughout 2017, cooperation between NATO and the EU will soon face political limitations that only member countries, not the institutions and organizations based in Brussels, can overcome." Modernizing nuclear weapons. The mentioned institute states in its report that the attention of great powers to nuclear weapons has increased, with China, Russia, and the U.S. beginning to modernize and update their nuclear arsenals. Russia and the U.S. have focused their attention on the guidance systems of these weapons, while China will likely focus on modernizing the guidance systems of such weapons from the air via bombers. The actions of these three countries regarding nuclear weapons are more rooted in their survival and endurance in the event of conflict than in increasing the efficiency of their nuclear arsenals. The ability to neutralize the opponent's air defense is one of the main reasons for China's and Russia's efforts to modernize and update their nuclear weapon guidance systems. The Middle East, ISIS. While the Middle East continues to be rife with the effects of the wars in Syria and Iraq, regional governments are forced to grapple with the threats posed by transnational terrorist groups. Concurrently, Gulf Arab countries are increasingly concerned about the Islamic Republic's support for the Houthis in Yemen, the destabilizing activities of this country in the region.