Missile Attack on Syria; Deterrent or Symbolic?

A week after the chemical attack in the city of Douma, Syria, and its widespread coverage in global media, the United States, Britain, and France conducted a simultaneous joint operation in the early hours of Saturday, April 14. According to Pentagon officials, the U.S. Department of Defense targeted a scientific research center in Damascus and two chemical weapons depots and their components in Homs. There is no precise information about the weapons used in this operation, but reports in the days leading up to the attack indicated that the U.S. had dispatched the missile destroyer 'Cook' to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. A French ship was also present in these waters, and in addition, several submarines from Britain and the U.S., and possibly France, were on standby in the same section of the Mediterranean. Besides surface and subsurface units, the British airbase 'Akrotiri' in Cyprus was also prepared to join the operation. There was also a possibility of using French bombers stationed in Jordan. It is unclear how many of these naval and aerial units participated in the operation against Syria, but according to Western media reports, more than a hundred missiles were fired at the three mentioned targets during the operation, which lasted about 15 minutes. Most of the missiles fired were likely Tomahawks, which are equipped on several surface and subsurface units of the U.S. and Britain. This long-range cruise missile, used against ground targets, has various types, but its approximate range, depending on the type, is between 1300 to 2500 kilometers. As reported by British media, four multi-role 'Tornado' fighter jets stationed at the 'Akrotiri' base in Cyprus also participated in this operation, equipped with 'Storm Shadow' missiles. This missile, a joint product of Britain, France, and Italy, is known in France as 'Scalp EG' and is an air-launched cruise missile with a range exceeding 560 kilometers. Therefore, the mentioned fighter jets were able to carry out their assigned missions without entering Syrian airspace or being exposed to the S-300 or S-400 Russian air defense systems in Syria. Inspectors from the 'Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons' were scheduled to enter Douma on the same day the operation took place, to investigate the attack and examine the victims, and report their findings to this organization. This organization is an intergovernmental body formed with the enforcement of the international convention prohibiting chemical weapons, headquartered in The Hague. Although it is not part of the United Nations, it collaborates closely with it. The organization's investigations are solely focused on determining the type of weapon or chemical weapons used and do not address the perpetrator of the attack. The fact that the U.S. and its allies launched an attack before the 'Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons' could present its report raises questions. Supporters of Bashar al-Assad, namely Russia and the Islamic Republic, have denied the chemical attack by Assad's army, with Russia implicitly attributing the execution of this attack to British agents. In contrast, leaders from the U.S., Britain, and France hold the Syrian army responsible for the Douma attack. In this context, British Prime Minister Theresa May stated at a press conference on Saturday that the analysis of the intelligence gathered regarding the Douma chemical attack proves that Assad's military was involved, and the early morning attack on Syrian chemical weapon facilities was a 'right and legal' action. Donald Trump similarly identified Bashar al-Assad as responsible for the Douma chemical attack and urged Russia and the Islamic Republic to cease their support for Assad. Some American officials have stated that samples taken from the blood of the victims of the Douma chemical attack contain not only chlorine gas but also another substance that paralyzes the victims' nervous systems, although the type of this substance has not yet been identified. As expected, the attacks by the U.S., Britain, and France were symbolic and brief, similar to the U.S. attacks on the Shayrat airbase in Syria following the Khan Shaykhun chemical attack. American officials have stated that the repetition of similar attacks depends on Assad's behavior and his further use of chemical weapons. Theresa May emphasized in her press conference that the attacks carried out were merely a reaction to Assad's chemical attacks and not intended to intervene in the Syrian civil war or change the regime in the country. The British Prime Minister evaded several questions regarding whether Britain's participation in future attacks against Assad would be automatic and certain in the event of another chemical attack by the Syrian army. In fact, carrying out sporadic attacks without continuity and without deploying ground units, and lacking a coherent strategy, will not be effective and cannot change the realities on the ground in Syria, let alone the balance of power in the Syrian civil war. The U.S. and its allies consciously avoided targeting areas where Russian forces were concentrated in Syria during the operation and therefore, it is not expected that Russia will react to these attacks contrary to its previous warnings. Since the Trump administration's policy regarding Syria is limited to the presence of two thousand military advisors in the west of the country and intends to withdraw its forces from eastern Syria at the appropriate time, a change in the balance of power in Syria is unlikely. Therefore, Russia and the Islamic Republic will continue to assert their influence in Syria, and since diplomatic efforts to end the Syrian civil war have yielded no results, the door to the Syrian civil war will continue to turn on this same axis for an indefinite period.