Moldovan Presidential Elections Head to Second Round; EU Membership Gains Support

On Sunday, October 21, the people of Moldova participated in two critical elections that analysts say will shape the future position of this small but strategic country in relation to Russia and the West. In the presidential election, current pro-Western President Maia Sandu competed against 10 other candidates, most of whom favored maintaining traditional close ties with Moscow. After counting most of the votes, it became clear that neither Ms. Sandu nor any other candidate had secured more than half of the total votes. Although the pro-EU president topped the polls with over 41% of the total votes, she must compete in two weeks in a runoff election against Alexander Stoianoglo, the former Attorney General of Moldova and candidate of the powerful Socialist Party led by the former president. The voter turnout in the presidential election was reported to be around 51.4%, or over 1.56 million people. Long lines of voters were reported in some polling stations within Moldova as well as in France, Russia, Romania, and Greece. A delegation of representatives from more than twelve countries also monitored the election process. However, the situation regarding the referendum on 'desire for EU membership' was more complex. While it initially appeared that opponents had won with about 57% of the votes after counting 90% of the ballots, the situation changed hours later, especially after counting the votes of Moldovans living abroad. According to results announced on the website of the country's electoral commission, it now seems that half of the voters in this referendum voted in favor. This result, although significantly different from what EU supporters expected, ultimately benefited Maia Sandu. Brussels was closely monitoring Moldova's dual elections. The European Commission recently approved an economic aid package for Moldova worth nearly $2 billion. This package includes economic support for infrastructure projects, including the construction of a bridge, railway, and a road connecting Chișinău, the capital of Moldova, to the port of Odessa in Ukraine. The EU has also promised to facilitate Moldova's access to the single market of this political-economic bloc. Although the results of these two elections were not too bad for Maia Sandu and her allies, the votes of the Moldovan people contained important lessons for both the current president and her opponents, especially as the country will witness parliamentary elections next summer, which are seen as a referendum on four years of governance by Sandu's 'Action and Solidarity' party. According to the constitution, the president of Moldova has limited powers, but Maia Sandu has managed to implement some of her pro-Western agenda through limited reforms and her country's official candidacy for EU membership, relying on her party's position in parliament. One of Ms. Sandu's most ambitious actions has been to cut Moldova's dependence on Russian natural gas since the onset of the Kremlin's military invasion of Ukraine; a move that has led to severe inflation and economic problems for a large portion of the population of the poorest country in Europe, which has a population of 2.4 million. Ahead of the elections and the referendum on Sunday, a group of local officials, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, alongside American and Western officials, accused Russia of 'openly trying to influence voter opinion.' Russia, which still has hundreds of soldiers in a Soviet-era base in the predominantly Russian-speaking autonomous region of Transnistria, denies these accusations. Ilan Shor, an Israeli-born Moldovan oligarch whose party was banned last year on charges of 'inciting a coup' by the government and the Constitutional Court of Moldova, is accused of attempting to strengthen Russia's position among the Moldovan people by paying millions of dollars to voters and influential figures, thereby fueling their dissatisfaction with the current government. In the weeks leading up to the elections, Moldova's customs reported the arrival of travelers from transit routes such as Istanbul or Yerevan coming from Moscow with large amounts of cash. According to Chișinău airport police, over one and a half million dollars were seized from these travelers in just one day, and none of them took action to follow up on the matter and reclaim the amounts. Moldovan officials believe this money is part of Ilan Shor and Russia's efforts to influence the election results. Maia Sandu, the current president of Moldova, after the announcement of the preliminary election results on Monday morning, October 30, issued a statement without directly referencing Russia or Ilan Shor, reporting an 'unprecedented attack by criminal groups' on the elections to 'buy tens of thousands of votes and harm the democratic process' in the country. A few days before the elections, officials announced the arrest of four individuals who, they said, 'intended to plunge the country into chaos after the elections' and claimed that dozens of others had been trained for this purpose in Russia and the Balkans.