Multi-layered Struggles of Ahmadinejad's Faction and Khamenei's Silence

For months, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his associates, including Hamid Baghaei and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, have entered a new phase of conflict with Iran's judiciary, specifically the Larijani brothers, who head the judiciary and legislative branches. Protests began in late 2012 after the release of an audio file regarding Fazel Larijani's 'rent-seeking' in parliament. The rhetoric and actions of the actors involved in this tension have opened a new chapter in Iran's political landscape. Some actions by Ahmadinejad's associates have roots in Iran's political history, including sit-ins at religious sites. Hamid Baghaei, who was previously Ahmadinejad's first vice president and claims to have been sentenced to 63 years in prison, announced on Tuesday that in protest against what he called illegal and tyrannical actions, particularly against the 'oppressive behavior' of Sadeq Larijani, the head of the judiciary, he would stage a sit-in at the shrine of Abd al-Azim. Among the accusations against Baghaei are 'paying bonuses to 16 government members' and 'colluding in contracts and transactions of five companies.' Another key figure in this arena, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad's advisor and former head of the Cultural Heritage Organization, also has a case in court. He has recently spoken of oppression but has extended his criticism beyond the judiciary, stating: 'Today in the Islamic Republic of Iran, we face open oppression and false claims.' According to him, 'one must weep for the people who follow the Seal of the Prophets and are not free.' This type of criticism from Mashaei, which sometimes encompasses the entire structure of the Islamic Republic, is assessed by Mehdi Mahdavi Azad in Germany as aligned with Mashaei's ideological line. He tells Radio Farda: 'In Mashaei's discourse, there is essentially no special loyalty to the leader of the Islamic Republic.' Mahdavi Azad identifies one of the 'serious fears of the regime behind the scenes' as the possibility that 'the Ahmadinejad faction might suddenly change direction due to increased pressures and openly pursue Mashaei's discourse, which is why we see the regime moving very cautiously in this regard.' Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president who is now a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, opened a new chapter of criticisms against the Islamic Republic's judiciary on Tuesday. After criticizing Sadeq Larijani as 'usurper' and 'illegitimate,' he published a text stating that it was based on the opinions of legal experts and addressed the shortcomings of the institution whose head is appointed by the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad pointed out principles such as the right to a fair trial, prohibition of defamation, prohibition of detention, prompt judicial review, access to independent counsel, freedom of belief, and prohibition of thought inspection, outlining the structural problems of the judiciary and then providing solutions. Mehdi Mahdavi Azad, among other analysts, believes that the issues raised in this text reflect sentiments that many other critics have previously expressed, adding: 'If you set aside Ahmadinejad's dark history regarding citizens' rights and his poor political record, the reality is that the statements he makes resonate with the hearts of millions of dissatisfied citizens, critics, and even the sentiments of reformist activists and opponents of the government, and even a large segment of conservatives secretly agrees with Ahmadinejad's criticisms.' For this reason, Mahdavi Azad believes that this strategy may be more successful than other layers of Ahmadinejad's and his associates' struggles. This political analyst states: 'The key importance of this text is that it has distanced itself from Ahmadinejad's usual political and aggressive rhetoric and entered a legal and logical discourse, which creates an opportunity for Ahmadinejad to gather a larger segment of experts and political forces, even those opposed to him, around him and gain more support even among conservatives. Therefore, if this approach continues, it poses a much greater threat than his previous approach against the judiciary.' Both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Sadeq Larijani hold their current positions by the decree of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has not commented on this dispute in recent months. Some analysts, including Mohammad Javad Akbarin in France, believe that the cost of Khamenei's involvement in this matter would be much greater than his silence. Akbarin tells Radio Farda: 'Both sides of the dispute are appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei and are supported by him. The sensitivity of society towards them is high, especially since one of these two parties is someone for whom the country has paid a heavy price in terms of security, economic, and political support from the leadership over the past decade.' Meanwhile, the last Friday prayer held in Tehran provided an opportunity for Mohammad Imami Kashani to express his views on this matter. The Tehran Friday prayer leader, who is also a member of the Assembly of Experts, stated on January 1 that the powers of the Islamic Republic and 'those at the top of the system should not be weakened' and emphasized that 'problems should not be brought to the public level, but a few elders should be designated to discuss and resolve issues with the opposing side.