Negotiations on Iran's Nuclear Program and 'Unresolved Issues'

In this round of negotiations, all issues that have been discussed between Iran and the six world powers over the past 19 months will be raised again. At this stage, both sides are expected to finalize the details of the nuclear agreement, the framework of which was agreed upon in April 2015. Although both sides considered the achievement of the April agreement a success, it soon became clear that each party's interpretation of the terms of this agreement differed. From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the fundamental issues are the lifting of sanctions and restrictions on inspections of Iran's military bases. On the other hand, Obama, considering domestic considerations, is trying to show that his administration has not surrendered to Iranian leaders. Opponents of the nuclear agreement believe that reaching this agreement will boost Iran's economy but can only limit Iran's nuclear program for a few years. After these few years, Iran will have no restrictions and will be able to resume its nuclear program with full power and speed, while maintaining legitimacy, and achieve the capability to build nuclear weapons. As Obama stated in an interview with NPR: 'The main fear is that in the thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth years, they will have advanced centrifuges that can enrich uranium at a rapid pace. In such a situation, their time frame for building a nuclear bomb will be zero.' In other words, achieving an agreement will be a significant victory for Iran's leaders. On the other hand, the goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the lifting of economic sanctions. Although both sides believe that if a final agreement is reached, economic sanctions will ultimately be lifted, the red line drawn by the Iranian leader is the immediate lifting of sanctions upon signing the agreement. Although the leader's stance on this red line seems inflexible, the Islamic Republic of Iran is capable of showing flexibility by changing the interpretation of this position without undermining his authority. In other words, the Islamic Republic of Iran can wait a few months for the lifting of sanctions (especially those in the oil and gas sector). Secondly, another important issue is the inspection of Iran's nuclear and military facilities. Although both sides agree on the necessity of some form of oversight by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, the fundamental issue is the limits of these inspections. Iranian leaders oppose visits by inspectors to military sites suspected of having nuclear activities. These inspections are considered the second red line of the Iranian leader. However, it is likely that both sides will reach an agreement in this area. The red line drawn by the Iranian leader regarding visits to military centers serves more as a tactical measure to strengthen the position of nuclear negotiators. These red lines are meant to empower the Iranian team to gain more concessions from the U.S. The agreement that will ultimately be concluded will be favorable for Iran. Additionally, another goal of the Iranian leader in announcing such red lines is to show that the U.S. needs Iran, not the other way around. Ayatollah Khamenei, considering Obama's urgent need to reach a nuclear agreement for his foreign policy record, recently stated that the U.S. is in need of Iran. The third issue is the limits of Iran's enrichment and nuclear research in the 10 to 15 years following the agreement and beyond. As Obama pointed out, Iran can reduce the time needed to achieve nuclear weapons to zero after the agreement's duration ends. Finally, all technical issues discussed over the past 19 months will be raised again. However, this does not mean that the differences between Washington and Tehran are insurmountable. Reaching an agreement is more of a political matter than a technical one. Since both Iranian hardliners and Obama consider the nuclear agreement a desirable one, the likelihood of achieving it is very high.