Negotiations on NATO; Prime Ministers of Sweden and Hungary to Meet

On Thursday, January 25, Sweden announced that Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will meet with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban in Brussels next week. According to Reuters, the main focus of their discussions will be Sweden's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as Stockholm seeks to resolve remaining obstacles. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland sought to join NATO. Finland became the 31st member last year, but Turkey and Hungary blocked Sweden's membership request. The Turkish parliament finally approved Sweden's request on Tuesday, January 24, and it is expected that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will finalize it in the coming days. Thus, Hungary remains the only obstacle for Sweden's NATO membership. This situation has raised concerns for Sweden, which is seeking security, and for other NATO members who consider Stockholm's membership geopolitically important in the Baltic region. In a letter to Viktor Orban, the Swedish Prime Minister mentioned that there will be an opportunity to meet at the European Council in Brussels next week. Recently, Orban stated on social media that during a phone call with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, he indicated Hungary supports Sweden's membership in the defense alliance. However, it is unclear what topics the negotiations between Sweden and Hungary will focus on. Ultimately, the Hungarian parliament must approve Sweden's request. The Hungarian parliament is on winter recess until mid-next month, but Orban can call for an emergency session. The Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament stated on January 25 that there is no plan to expedite the review process for Sweden's NATO membership in the Hungarian parliament. Sweden's NATO membership requires the formal approval of all 31 member countries, including Turkey and Hungary. Previously, it was believed that Turkey was the main obstacle for Sweden's NATO membership, but now Hungary is seen as the only remaining hurdle. Orban, who maintains friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite the war in Ukraine, said on January 24 that he urges Hungarian lawmakers to approve Sweden's accession as soon as possible. However, the Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament stated that he does not feel any particular urgency to address this issue, as he does not believe there is an extraordinary situation. Given the recess of the Hungarian parliament, the opposition Socialist Party may call for an emergency session, but considering Orban's strong majority in parliament, this request is unlikely to succeed. Although the Hungarian parliament's vote is needed for Sweden's NATO membership, Orban is considered the main decision-maker in this regard due to his influence over his supporters in parliament, who are members of the ruling party. The U.S. has stated that the process of selling F-16 fighter jets to Turkey will begin after Sweden's NATO membership is finalized. Orban has reiterated Hungary's support for Sweden's NATO membership. The largest NATO military exercise involving 90,000 soldiers is taking place. The Turkish parliamentary commission has finally voted in favor of Sweden's NATO membership. Turkey has greenlighted Sweden's NATO membership; Erdogan stated that the actions of the U.S. and Canada have been effective.