Netanyahu's Rival Coalition Leads in Polls Ahead of Parliamentary Elections

With 29 days remaining until Israel's parliamentary elections, while the ruling Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu continues to maintain its power, the Blue and White coalition, which is the main rival of Likud, has significantly weakened despite leading in the polls. The latest poll from Yedioth Ahronoth indicates that the newly formed coalition led by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid would secure 33 seats compared to Likud's 29 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. The early elections in Israel are set to take place on Tuesday, April 9. The recent poll was conducted a week after Avichai Mandelblit, the Attorney General of Israel, announced that after the legal 'hearing' process, an indictment might be issued in three cases against Benjamin Netanyahu. The new poll shows that Mr. Netanyahu has regained strength after a few days of slight instability in his public standing, and Likud's seats have stabilized in this poll, while the right-wing and religious bloc has strengthened in the past week. The public support for the Blue and White coalition has decreased compared to the first day the prosecution expressed its opinion regarding the police cases against Netanyahu, and this new party entity may secure up to 33 seats. A weekend poll from the critical Haaretz newspaper also predicted 28 seats for Likud and 31 seats for Blue and White. If elections were held today, the Labor Party would secure 10 seats, the ultra-religious Torah Judaism party 7 seats, the Joint Arab-Israeli List 7 seats, the religious Jewish Shas party 6 seats, the alliance of far-right Jewish parties 6 seats, the left-wing Meretz party 5 seats, the new far-right party 5 seats, the radical 'Israel Our Home' party 4 seats, the socio-economic active party Kulanu 4 seats, and the Joint List of Israeli Arabs Ra'am-Balad 4 seats. Several other small parties may secure a maximum of one seat on voting day. Israeli poll analysts say that regardless of the actual number of seats for Likud and the Blue and White coalition, the main battle for them is to unite small parties with themselves. However, the stronger chance lies with the Likud party as the right-wing and religious bloc is strengthening. The Blue and White coalition may only have a better chance of forming a government if it secures 6 to 7 more seats than Likud, but the small gap in seats does not create much opportunity for them. Netanyahu's superior chances of continuing as Prime Minister are not only due to the existence of more right-wing and religious parties but also because in all polls, when asked whether he or Benny Gantz is more deserving of leadership, the majority still prefer Netanyahu. 38% in the Yedioth Ahronoth poll stated that Netanyahu is the more deserving politician; 31% preferred Benny Gantz, and another 31% said they do not know or have not decided yet. 53% believe that ultimately it will be Netanyahu who forms the next government, while only 27% believe Gantz has that chance. Reuven Rivlin, the President of Israel, who has long-standing deep disagreements with Netanyahu, will have to assign the task of forming a government to the politician who has the most Knesset representatives proposing his premiership after the elections. Haaretz also wrote in recent days that Israel's predicament is that when it wants to free itself from Netanyahu's decade-long rule, it must resort to a 'gang' of former army generals. The Blue and White coalition, which includes three former army chiefs and Yair Lapid, has been the strongest group to stand against Netanyahu so far, but Netanyahu's high ability to change situations and leverage political, security, social, and economic conditions to his advantage diminishes the chances of his newly emerging rival. According to Israeli media, Netanyahu may have multiple global trips in the remaining days until the elections, and it is not unlikely that he will visit the Arab country of Morocco for the first time to prove to the Israeli public that he is a leader of a 'different and superior league on a global scale.' Overall, the 69-year-old Netanyahu has a high chance of defeating his political rivals, and his ability to thwart the prosecution's efforts to bring him to trial is significant. Meanwhile, 46% of the public, including some who consider him 'the most deserving person for leadership,' stated in the Yedioth Ahronoth poll that they trust the judiciary in handling Netanyahu's cases, while only 19% said they accept Netanyahu's statements regarding his cases, and more than one-third of people currently have no specific opinion on this matter.