New Agency Report: 'Iran's Delay and Continued Technical Stalemate'

The latest report from the Agency regarding the current status of nuclear activities in Iran indicates an increase in the efficiency of P-1 centrifuges, an increase in uranium reserves with a concentration of less than 5 percent, ongoing research and development work, and the continued technical negotiations with the Agency remaining at a stalemate for the past two years. Prior to the confidential report's submission to the Board of Governors, the text was released by reputable news agencies, emphasizing that Iran has provided information regarding one of two potential efforts related to the construction of a nuclear trigger (neutron firing and high-power explosion testing). In parallel with political negotiations with the 1+5 group, Iran is also conducting negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency, primarily aimed at clarifying past activities suspected of having military dimensions. Over the past year, during three rounds of negotiations with the Agency, Iran received 18 different questions and responded to 16 of the Agency's requests. The most sensitive issue among the questions presented is Iran's efforts to achieve a nuclear trigger. In this specific case, Iran implicitly accepted the study for neutron firing for the first time last year, explaining that the results could be used in mining, dam construction, and road building (explosions to create large cavities). Since that time, additional information from the Agency has been withheld, and the suspicious site for neutron firing tests (Parchin) has remained closed to Agency inspectors under the pretext of military use. To detonate a nuclear bomb, constructing a nuclear trigger is essential. To create a trigger, neutrons from the two metals 'polonium' and 'beryllium' are moved along the electric coils installed in the bomb's casing, and after hitting a mass of uranium enriched to over 90 percent, a chain reaction occurs, resulting in a nuclear explosion. A simpler method for constructing and detonating a bomb involves gathering a mass of uranium-235 with a concentration of over 90 percent and firing a projectile of the same material (by creating a high-power explosion) through a tube shaped like a conventional weapon towards the larger mass. As a result of the impact, a chain reaction occurs, leading to a nuclear explosion. Due to the simplicity of this recent technique and the specific shape of the launch device available to Iran (Shahab family missiles with limited diameters), the constructed trigger could be utilized in this method. Shortcomings in fulfilling other commitments Based on the Joint Action Plan, Iran is committed to converting uranium gas enriched to 3.5 percent into uranium powder by the end of June. According to the Agency's latest report, Iran currently possesses 8,714 kilograms of uranium gas with a concentration of 3.5 percent. If Iran refrains from converting this gas into uranium powder, it could increase its concentration to military levels. Iran had previously converted 228 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium into metal and uranium fuel. According to the latest report, since the last report was prepared, Iran has refrained from converting its 3.5 percent enriched uranium gas products into uranium powder. Out of more than 10,000 kilograms of low-concentration uranium gas, Iran has only converted 2,720 kilograms into powder, thus falling behind its commitments under the Joint Action Plan. Iran's delays in fulfilling commitments related to the Joint Action Plan can also be observed in other areas: despite a commitment to produce 60 kilograms of 20 percent fuel, Iran has only produced 44 kilograms of nuclear fuel since July of last year, and since April, this amount has been limited to just 4 kilograms. Iran continues to conduct 'research and development' to recycle 20 percent enriched uranium, and any action in this area contradicts the commitments of the Joint Action Plan (the use of this reserve could reduce the breakout time to a bomb by up to 50 percent). Iran has also prepared samples of fuel usable in the Bushehr reactor. Iran's failure to meet the provisions of the 'Joint Action Plan' can be attributed either to technical reasons or to Iran's intention to hold its commitments hostage in political negotiations, especially since April, when political negotiations encountered new obstacles. Although the Agency's report, which will be presented to the Board of Governors this week, can be generally considered positive, the reported shortcomings of Iran could raise new concerns and criticisms among opponents of nuclear negotiations.