New Chief of General Staff and Security Challenges of the Islamic Republic

The Islamic Republic, engulfed in direct and proxy wars throughout the Middle East and facing a resurgence of ethnic and sectarian strife in Kurdistan, Baluchistan, and Khuzestan, is striving to enhance its military capabilities and increase cooperation between the IRGC and the army. The appointment of Major General Mohammad Baqeri (Mohammad Hossein Afshordi), who has a background in intelligence, as the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces is aimed at achieving this goal and guiding the military forces of the Islamic Republic to confront these diverse threats. Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized in Baqeri's appointment decree that he must enhance the defensive-security capabilities and readiness of the armed forces and the Basij to prepare them for effective and timely responses to any threats against the Islamic Republic. The phrase "revolutionary action" in the decree indicates a clear continuation and preference for the IRGC's approach in the military thoughts of the Islamic Republic. Unlike his predecessor Hassan Firouzabadi and other IRGC commanders, Baqeri has largely avoided media presence and interviews with journalists, but his occasional remarks provide insight into his military thoughts and mindset. In his introductory ceremony on Tuesday, July 15, he stated that his top priority in the General Staff is to "execute the orders of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces," meaning Ayatollah Khamenei, and afterward, he will focus on enhancing the capabilities of the armed forces and assisting the oppressed in the region. Before his appointment, Baqeri, in his role as head of the Joint Staff, mentioned in an interview that protecting Baghdad, holy sites, and the burial places of Imams in Iraq are among the red lines of the Islamic Republic, stating that if they are threatened, Iran will act decisively to eliminate the "malefactors." In the same interview, reassuring the friends of the Islamic Republic and emphasizing that Tehran will support them until victory is achieved, he stated, "If the interests of our friends and allies are threatened, based on the Supreme Commander’s guidance, we will support the companions of the Iranian nation by any means necessary and provide them with the necessary training to confront any danger... and based on the Supreme Leader's guidance and the Supreme National Security Council, we will take specific actions in each location." Baqeri's so-called "forward-looking and strategic" plans include the future presence of Iranian forces in the South Pole, as he mentioned at the end of the last "Development of Makran Coasts and Maritime Power of the Islamic Republic" conference in Chabahar, stating, "From the Makran coasts, we have direct access to the open waters without any land in the way, and we can claim sovereignty over parts of the South Pole according to international law." While such an action may be theoretically acceptable, it is practically rooted in ignorance and leans towards wishful thinking regarding the naval capabilities of the army and the allocation of military resources. This claim arises while Sistan and Baluchistan and the Makran coasts remain among the least developed areas of Iran, and the navy, as a green water navy (not a strategic navy as claimed), has lagged behind in timely and relative strengthening compared to the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf due to the Islamic Republic's negligence, including entrusting its command to sea captains with questionable naval degrees for nearly 16 years. Despite extensive efforts by its officers and non-commissioned officers in maintenance, renewal, and reorganization, the navy lacks sufficient capability to fulfill its assigned duties in the frontline defense in the Sea of Oman, let alone secure the Islamic Republic's sovereignty in parts of the South Pole. According to Major General Mohammad Baqeri, the army and the IRGC complement each other, and defense against an equal enemy is the responsibility of the army based on the constitution. If the attacking force is such that the army cannot counter it alone, then the IRGC will enter the field. Additionally, the IRGC is responsible for "maintaining internal security beyond the capabilities of law enforcement and deepening the Islamic Revolution in the western Asia and Islamic countries." In his interview on the television program "Shenasnameh," he stated that the Islamic Republic is not facing an "equal threat" but only "asymmetric threats" such as potential threats and attacks from the United States, and in such conditions, the IRGC will assist the army. In other words, Baqeri does not consider any neighboring or regional countries as military equals to the Islamic Republic, viewing only the U.S. and countries at its level as threats, asserting that the army's duty is to confront external threats, not internal ones. While Baqeri sees the army and IRGC as complementary, the rift and lack of consensus between the army and IRGC continue as before, and in recent years, aside from limited cooperation in air defense, there has been no sign of mutual interaction or joint exercises between them. The IRGC is a political-economic-military organization, while the army remains a classic non-political military organization that has been systematically sidelined. IRGC commanders intervene in all aspects of the country, from social and moral issues to political, security, military, intelligence, and foreign policy, often undermining government policies and attempting to steer the foreign policy of Rouhani's administration towards confrontational approaches. The IRGC is, in many respects, considered a de facto semi-open government. In recent changes in the General Staff, Ayatollah Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Abdolrahim Mousavi from the army as Baqeri's deputy to maintain appearances, and Brigadier General Hossein Hassani Saadi, one of the most experienced and skilled army generals, was appointed as the deputy of Brigadier General Gholamali Rashid in the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, responsible for military planning and coordination of armed forces operations. The General Staff is filled with IRGC commanders, and the IRGC has extraordinary influence in all branches of the country and decision-making centers, including the Supreme National Security Council. Baqeri stated at his introductory ceremony that the most significant internal threats arise from the northwest and southern border regions. The potential and actual threats in Sistan and Baluchistan, West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, and Khuzestan are among the primary concerns for internal security, with the IRGC bearing the main responsibility for repelling or controlling these threats. The acute issues in Sistan and Baluchistan, which have cultural, economic, ethnic, and sectarian dimensions, remain unresolved, and over the past decade, the worsening security situation in this part of the country has not diminished. The IRGC's approaches in this province, including military and intelligence cooperation with Pakistan to eradicate armed groups, have not yielded results. The security situation in Khuzestan and the roots of its acute issues do not differ significantly from those in Sistan and Baluchistan. In comparison, tensions and clashes in the northwest have escalated with the armed struggle of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan against the Islamic Republic, and the IRGC has intensified its attacks against the fighters of this party and other armed groups. While the Islamic Republic collaborates closely with the Peshmerga of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to combat ISIS, the aforementioned party, according to its leaders, intends to establish strong political relations with Iraqi Kurdistan. Addressing these asymmetric threats and providing necessary operational solutions while creating coordination among military forces will be one of Baqeri's concerns. In this regard, Syria poses a serious challenge for the Islamic Republic that the General Staff must confront. The attacks by Jaish al-Fateh and Jabhat al-Nusra on IRGC units in Khan Tuman on May 7 dealt a heavy blow to the IRGC, questioning its effectiveness and reputation. This blow, along with other inefficiencies and the rising number of IRGC casualties in Syria and its reflection in society, pressured Ayatollah Khamenei and other officials of the Islamic Republic to reassess the IRGC's presence in Syria. In this context, one of Baqeri's responsibilities will be to implement the new strategy of the Islamic Republic in Syria and establish coordination and cooperation between the army and the IRGC. The IRGC, according to Hossein Salami, the IRGC's deputy commander, operates at four levels: strategic, operational, tactical, technical, and humanitarian in Syria, which until recently was exclusive to IRGC and Quds Force personnel. However, recently the General Staff and IRGC have fundamentally shifted to include army units in the battlefields of Syria. Nevertheless, the responsibility for the participation of the Islamic Republic's military forces and the direction of their operations and necessary coordination with Syrian government forces lies with the IRGC. In other words, the IRGC takes the lead, and army units are tasked with assisting the IRGC. In Iraq, the IRGC and Quds Force have a strong position and do not require the help and interaction of army units. The increasing power of the IRGC fundamentally differs from that of the army. As mentioned earlier, the IRGC had a non-classical and informal structure at its inception and during the Iran-Iraq war, but by the end of the eight-year war, it was organized as a classic military force that also plays a prominent role in economic and political matters. In contrast, the army remains a formal military force as it has been. After the eight-year war, the IRGC increasingly aligned itself with national security issues, including cybersecurity, missile capability development, and warfare in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. The IRGC's extensive political influence in all branches of the country, combined with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's favoritism during his presidency, resulted in the IRGC having a larger budget compared to the army, a situation the current government is attempting to balance. Consequently, Hassan Rouhani has reduced the IRGC's budget for this year while increasing the army's budget by 15%, an action that faced opposition from parliament. Meanwhile, the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, one of the IRGC's subsidiaries, is the largest contractor of state projects in the country and is considered one of the significant economic hubs of the Islamic Republic. Recently, every step taken by Rouhani's government to encourage and attract foreign investors in the country has faced opposition from conservatives and government opponents who do not want the role of IRGC-affiliated companies to diminish. These companies experienced significant growth during Ahmadinejad's presidency due to international sanctions against the Islamic Republic, consequently adding unprecedented financial resources and economic influence to the IRGC in the country. Currently, the position of these companies is threatened by Rouhani's government policies in trade and foreign investment, as well as his efforts to relatively open the country's economic space. Despite this, the IRGC, which prioritizes the protection and preservation of the Islamic Republic, will continue to expand its influence in Iran and the region, and Ayatollah Khamenei, to maintain his position and the seat of the Velayat-e Faqih, will preserve the IRGC's primary role as the "Praetorian Guard" of the Islamic Republic, regardless of any costs it may impose on Iran, and for this reason, has instructed Mohammad Baqeri to use "revolutionary action" to block any threats against the Islamic Republic.