New Plan for Ceasefire in Gaza; Biden's Plan or Netanyahu's Plan?

On Friday, June 1, Joe Biden announced a new plan to end the war in Gaza, which he stated was developed by Israel following intensive negotiations between the U.S., Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and other Arab countries in the region. The new plan does not differ significantly from the previous one, except that it has more precise timelines and actions to be taken at each stage. The new plan also includes three phases; in the first six-week phase, a ceasefire will be established, and Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza. Simultaneously, female, elderly, and injured hostages will be released in exchange for a number of Hamas prisoners, and humanitarian aid will be sent to Gaza on a larger scale. Biden announced the new ceasefire plan for Gaza, emphasizing that Netanyahu's government insists on prior conditions during these first six weeks of negotiations for actions to be taken in the following six weeks, including the release of other hostages, a permanent ceasefire, a definitive end to the war, and a complete withdrawal of Israel from Gaza. In other words, the second phase pertains to an agreement for the complete release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners and 'long-term cessation of hostilities.' The third phase involves negotiations for the reconstruction of Gaza and the prospect of resolving the Palestinian issue. Biden implicitly stated that since Hamas is now in a position where it can no longer carry out operations like those on October 7, and the goal that Israel has pursued (the destruction of Hamas) has been largely achieved, continuing the war with all its horrific dimensions is no longer relevant. In other words, from Biden's perspective, the weakness that Hamas has encountered is no different from its destruction, and subsequent political actions and equations in the reconstruction of Gaza or managing and resolving the Palestinian issue will increasingly undermine this force. In an unusual response, Netanyahu's office released two messages in reaction to Biden's statements. Particularly, the second message, released on June 2, coinciding with Shabbat (Saturday), when such actions are rare, has drawn attention and is seen as a sign of Netanyahu's (negative) sensitivity to Biden's remarks. Netanyahu, especially in the second message, rejects Biden's understanding of Hamas's fundamental weakening, reiterating his previous conditions for ending the war, namely 'the destruction of Hamas in such a way that it has no capacity to continue the war and participate in political power.' Israel is 'reviewing' Biden's new plan for the fate of the Gaza war. Netanyahu's differing stance compared to Biden's remarks was not entirely unexpected, especially since two days earlier, the National Security Advisor of Netanyahu's government had told families of hostages in a tense meeting: 'You can curse me... slam the door in anger and leave, but our fight against Hamas must continue to prevent another October 7 (for example) from happening in 2027... If hostages are not released in the coming weeks or months, the current Israeli government has no alternative plan; we will continue the war in Gaza and on the northern border (against Hezbollah) and then reassess our situation.' Given these factors and data, it seems that the plan mentioned by Biden is more of a proposal from the U.S. government after intensive negotiations with various parties, and without Tel Aviv's agreement, has been publicly thrown into Netanyahu's court to put both this government and Hamas under public pressure, portraying their potential opposition as an attempt to continue an unnecessary war and paving the way for possible actions against them. The trilateral statement from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar in support of this plan and calling on Israel and Hamas to accept it also indicates that the plan is intended to exert pressure on Israel (and Hamas) and therefore cannot be Netanyahu's plan, even if he has not completely opposed it in his dual messages. In other words, while Hamas is firmly insisting on a complete end to the war and a total withdrawal of Israeli forces in exchange for the full release of hostages, there is no indication from the Israeli government that it agrees to such a demand, and the continuation of the war and 'the complete destruction of Hamas' is firmly maintained. A not-so-easy situation for the Biden administration. Of course, Biden's aggressive approach using public opinion leverage is not entirely incomprehensible given the current circumstances. Eight months of war that Israel has waged in Gaza following Hamas's crimes on October 7, with Washington's simultaneous support and criticism, has not only failed to achieve the declared goals of Netanyahu's government but has also resulted in the destruction and the deaths of over thirty thousand residents of Gaza, most of whom are women and children and not Hamas members, and in addition to creating a humanitarian disaster, it has also cost the lives of some hostages. The attack on Rafah since May 8, which was promised to eliminate the last remnants of Hamas brigades and to discover and neutralize its remaining leaders, especially to free the hostages, has also remained fruitless, and the pessimism and pressure from the families of hostages regarding the military solution to free their relatives from Hamas has intensified. In the meantime, Hamas has begun military operations from areas that were said to have been cleared of this force by Israel. The horrific fire in the Palestinian refugee camp in Rafah, which is considered a result of an Israeli airstrike, has further questioned and protested the continuation of the war on a global level. For the U.S. and European countries, the rulings of the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court regarding the necessity of ending the war in Rafah or the request to prosecute the Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense are also not trivial matters and create conditions and commitments that come with headaches for them. Public pressure in these countries for ending the war is also increasing, especially for Biden, who must seek re-election to remain in the White House in November, making the situation more sensitive than allowing the war in Gaza to continue in its current form, a form that has not only failed to achieve Netanyahu's government goals but is likely to become counterproductive and a factor for further isolation of Israel, consequently creating more problems for Israel's supporting countries. However, there is also a serious speculation that Netanyahu and the far-right faction within his government wish to continue the war until November, the time of the U.S. elections, and if necessary, even escalate operations on the northern front against Hezbollah into a full-scale and prolonged war, perhaps hoping that with a possible victory for Donald Trump, the criticisms and pressures from the White House will end, and someone in Washington will take over who has unprecedented unconditional support for the Israeli government (Netanyahu's government) and its approaches in surrounding conflicts. Concerns and considerations in two whistles. The Netanyahu government's agreement to Biden's plan after eight months of war effectively deals a significant blow to this government's credibility and will raise the question of why it did not agree to at least the initial ceasefire proposals for a complete end to the war and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of hostages, and why it has now consented to such an agreement after eight months of war. In such a situation, which will likely be accompanied by increased pressure for early elections, Netanyahu's government will find itself in an even worse position to gain votes, and the initiation of legal cases against him will become more probable. These factors play a somewhat central role in Netanyahu's negative approach to any ceasefire proposal before achieving the elusive and protracted goal of 'destroying Hamas.' Hamas has also had its own specific obstructions in reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, insisting on the necessity of a complete end to the war and a total withdrawal of Israel, as well as emphasizing that certain Palestinian prisoners must be among those released, and in short, trying to create a situation that shows it as the victor in the field and to gain legitimacy for the crimes of October 7, has posed its own specific obstacles to advancing ceasefire negotiations and reaching an agreement. One day before Biden's speech, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political bureau, reiterated the demand for a complete end to the war and a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as a condition for the release of hostages. Now, whether Biden's statements have been welcomed by this group remains to be seen, and to what extent the 'ifs' and 'buts' of it will render it irrelevant. However, stronger support from Qatar and Egypt for the new plan puts them in a difficult position to oppose it. In the plan that Biden has outlined, Israel has been given the concession of discussing not a complete end to the war but 'a long-term cessation of hostilities.' Biden's message to Israel is also that if it agrees to this plan, the normalization of its relations with regional countries and its integration into joint security mechanisms with them, including for better countering Iranian threats, will proceed more smoothly, while the reconstruction of Gaza with the help of America's allies in the region will be structured in such a way that Hamas will no longer be part of the political game in the Palestinian arena and will have no opportunity for rearmament and so on. Given Netanyahu's office's position, it seems that these concessions have not been very convincing for his government. However, this does not mean that Biden's plan will fail like other previous plans and proposals, especially since within Israel, pressures from opposition forces for the government to agree to Biden's plan are increasing, and Israel's supporting countries in the West have also taken a position in favor of this plan and the necessity for Israel and Hamas to comply with it. In this context, the possibility of the U.S. government and European countries using some political pressure levers or reducing military and diplomatic support to intensify pressure on Netanyahu's government may not be ruled out. Qatar and Egypt also possess certain levers to pressure Hamas to accept Biden's plan.