New Round of Nuclear Negotiations: Economic Hopes and Concerns

Radio Farda - The last round of nuclear talks between Iran and the 1+5 group aimed at reaching a potential final agreement will begin on Wednesday in Vienna. Reza Valizadeh asked Fereydoun Khavand, an economics professor, how Iranian expert circles are reacting to these discussions and their fate. Fereydoun Khavand: The goal of the talks in Vienna on Wednesday is to move towards finalizing the understanding reached twenty days ago between Iran and the 1+5 group in Lausanne. We know that the Lausanne understanding did not bring about significant changes in Iranian markets. The currency market remained relatively stable. The recession in the housing market continued. The stock market, after a few days of surge, again faced a decline. The relative stability of the markets or the lack of positive changes can be attributed to the incompleteness of the Lausanne understanding. Various markets are waiting to see what will happen by June 30, the deadline set for reaching a final and permanent agreement. Against this backdrop, it seems that Iranian expert circles are betting on the success of this last round. In Tehran's economic media, the scenario of failure in the talks and the intensification of sanctions is rarely discussed and is considered marginal. The dominant scenario is the signing of a valid international text regarding the conclusion of the nuclear case and the beginning of the process of lifting sanctions. The realization of this optimistic scenario is naturally accompanied by much hope, but at the same time, it raises concerns. Let's start with the hopes. What is expected to happen in the Iranian economic scene with the potential signing of the final agreement? Expectations regarding the beginning of the process of lifting sanctions have been discussed in various ways to date. Many discussions have been made about re-establishing communication bridges between Iran and the international economic community in banking, finance, and trade, especially oil exports, the return of Iran's blocked assets abroad, and the facilitation of foreign investment and technology entering Iran, etc. These hopes are understandable. But why should expert circles be concerned about the potential consequences of a final agreement? There is a concern that in the so-called 'post-sanctions' period, with the return of Iran's blocked assets abroad and the increase in foreign currency revenues from exporting more oil, the same old wastefulness could resume, and the eleventh government might succumb to populist temptations, causing the necessary reforms for changing the ailing structures of Iran's economy to be forgotten once again. Warnings about this risk are frequently seen these days in Tehran's economic media.