New York Times: Iran is Exploring a Quick Path to Build Nuclear Weapons

The New York Times, citing American sources, reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran is attempting to achieve the construction of a "basic and non-advanced nuclear weapon" using "shortcuts and faster methods." This report was published on the eve of the U.S. President's meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister at the White House, where addressing Iran's nuclear program is a key agenda item for their negotiations. On Monday, February 4, the New York Times referenced statements from several current and former American officials, stating that new information received about Tehran's nuclear program has convinced U.S. officials that "a secret team of Iranian scientists is exploring faster ways to build a nuclear weapon, even if it is of a more basic type." According to the newspaper, information gathered in the last months of Joe Biden's administration was also communicated to Donald Trump's national security team during the transition of power. The report indicates that "the secret team in Iran's nuclear program is looking to convert its increasing stockpile of nuclear fuel into a weapon in less than a year, and if possible, within a few months." The newspaper added that new American intelligence suggests that the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been "weakened" by recent Israeli attacks and has lost its proxy forces, sees acquiring a nuclear weapon as a way to "restore its deterrent capability" against U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. American and Israeli officials believe that Iran has never been as "weak" as it is now; the extremist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, which were financially and militarily supported by Iran, have lost their ability to attack Israel, Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow, and Syria is no longer an easy route for Iran to transfer weapons in the region. The report claims that while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is "responsible for advancing" Iran's nuclear program and "finding shortcuts to produce a nuclear bomb," the government of Masoud Pezeshkian and politicians affiliated with his administration, who support the possibility of negotiating with the Trump administration, remain "unaware" of the IRGC's actual plans for rapid progress towards nuclear weapon production. Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the New York Times that for decades, Iran has faced a situation where the military controls the nuclear program, proxy forces in the region, internal repression, hostage-taking, and assassination, reporting directly to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. He noted that while diplomats and politicians authorized to speak with Western media and officials are "unaware" of the realities of their country's nuclear program, they have the "duty to deny" these realities to outsiders. Western officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency have long stated that uranium enrichment in Iran's nuclear program, which is currently at 60% purity, can be upgraded to 90% purity for bomb production in just a few days, and the 60% enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled so far is sufficient for producing four to five bombs. However, the main issue for Iran is converting enriched uranium into a complex and miniaturized warhead that can be mounted on a ballistic missile, a process that may take one and a half to two years. American officials have stated that for this reason, Tehran considers "the best deterrence strategy to convert fuel into a weapon, even if basic, that does not require a lot of time." These officials believe that a weapon produced through such a shortcut would not pose an "immediate offensive threat" and using it against Israel would not be easy, but it would allow Tehran to inform the world of testing such a bomb and transforming itself into a "nuclear power," compelling countries that intend to attack Iran to think more carefully about their decisions. Donald Trump, in the first week of his return to power, stated that it would be good if the issue of Iran's nuclear program could be resolved without an Israeli attack. At the same time, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, commented on the possibility of the Trump administration's "pressure" policy returning to Tehran, stating that Iran is still striving to acquire nuclear weapons.