Next Prime Minister of Iraq: Another Chapter of Iran's Influence?

Five months after the parliamentary elections in Iraq and the ensuing controversies and tensions that led to a manual recount of votes, it seems that the lottery for the premiership of a country long associated with multiple wars has drawn the name of Adel Abdul-Mahdi. The likelihood of someone who has previously served as Vice President and has held top positions in the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Finance of Iraq being Prime Minister has been strengthened following an agreement between two major political groups in the country that were once rivals. According to Al-Monitor, Muqtada al-Sadr and Hadi al-Amiri, leaders of the coalition factions known as Sairun-Fatah, have come closer to this understanding in their recent negotiations, while it appeared that the U.S. still supported the current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, but it is likely that Abadi will not serve a second term. Reports indicate that Iran has, in a mechanism that has apparently gone unnoticed by the U.S. in recent weeks, at least succeeded in obtaining the green light from Muqtada al-Sadr for Adel Abdul-Mahdi to assume the premiership. If the day of Abdul-Mahdi's swearing-in as Prime Minister, at the age of 76, is near, this could be considered another political success for Iran in the region, especially after a period of widespread protests in Shiite areas of Iraq against Iran. Iran, which seems unlikely to miss this opportunity to once again captivate the U.S. regarding Iraq, supports the premiership of someone with a background in Pan-Arabism, who was a close associate of fervent communist movements and a prominent member of the Iraqi Communist Party, and who worked alongside leftists in France for Iraqi communists but later adopted an Islamist viewpoint and, alongside Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir Hakim, was one of the founders of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq; an institution that was established from Iranian soil at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War to undermine Saddam Hussein's regime; and with Saddam's overthrow and its new phase of activity in Iraq, the word 'revolution' was removed from its title, and Abdul-Mahdi distanced himself from this Supreme Council two years ago due to escalating internal Shiite conflicts in Iraq. Al-Monitor reminds us that the source of the struggles to form a new government in Baghdad is the long-standing rivalry between the U.S. and Iran, as these fierce competitors continue to strive to maintain their upper hand in Iraq and not lose their grip. Siavash Fallahpour, a political analyst on Iranian affairs, told this American analytical website that Iran's efforts to maintain influence in the area that was called Iraq in the last century is a historical saga that goes beyond the four decades of the Islamic Republic of Iran's existence. According to Fallahpour, since the Battle of Chaldiran 504 years ago between the Safavid dynasty and the Ottoman Empire, Iranians have sought to benefit from influence in the territory that was named Arab Iraq in the divisions of the last century from 1921, but since 11 years ago, when American troops withdrew from Iraq due to a decision by then-President George Bush, the opportunity to realize this historical aspiration of Iranians has fallen into the hands of the leaders of this current era of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile, Al-Monitor writes that Lebanon has at least partially contributed to the reconciliation between the Sairun-Fatah coalition in Iraq; Muqtada al-Sadr's family roots trace back to Imam Musa Sadr's family in Lebanon, and he frequently travels to Lebanon. Recently, according to a Lebanese political source who wished to remain anonymous, he met with Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah and a main ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and according to this individual, Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was also present at this meeting and secured Muqtada al-Sadr's agreement for Abdul-Mahdi's premiership. Muqtada al-Sadr's agreement to Abdul-Mahdi's premiership, at least so far, comes at a time when he and his party have shown a significant shift in their positions since early last year; distancing themselves from Tehran and he himself traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi leaders. Muqtada al-Sadr's coalition, named 'Reform and Reconstruction,' also participated in the parliamentary elections with fierce competition against Iran-backed Shiites, although a joint faction of his coalition with forces supported by Hadi al-Amiri, a close ally of Qassem Soleimani, was formed after the Iraqi parliament began its work. The Islamic Dawa Party, which has been in power in Iraq for the past 13 years, emphasized before the elections five months ago that Iran had been the puppet master of three Iraqi governments and that this situation needed to change; however, the results obtained for this party after the elections were very weak. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, a Shiite religious authority in Iraq, stated less than three weeks ago that a new and brave figure should take the prime minister's seat, not someone chosen by the ineffective politicians of the past years. Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University, told Al-Monitor that Ayatollah Sistani's statements tied the hands of the U.S. in forming a government in Iraq that would act against Iran, and while he said that 'the U.S. was eager to sacrifice Iraqi interests just to strike Iran,' this religious authority managed to prevent the situation in Iraq from becoming dangerous and 'efforts to create enmity between Baghdad and Tehran.' Now it remains to be seen what position the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and other adversarial governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region will take regarding Adel Abdul-Mahdi's premiership in Iraq! A wide range of statements from senior U.S. officials regarding Iraq and strong warnings to Iran concerning its actions and its allied militias in Iraq are likely the beginning of a new round of U.S.-Iranian struggles in the Iraqi arena. Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, stated on Tuesday, October 3, at a press conference at the United Nations that Iraq has long been under Iranian influence and that equations there are determined by the 'Ayatollah' (Ali Khamenei) and Qassem Soleimani (commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), but since the advent of Donald Trump's administration, the situation has changed, and the U.S. seeks a government in Iraq that considers the national interests of this country. John Bolton, the National Security Advisor, also emphasized recently that recent attacks on American targets, including U.S. consulates in Iraq, were carried out by Iranian-allied forces, but he stated that the U.S. would no longer tolerate this situation. Nikki Haley, the U.S. representative to the United Nations, also said this week that Washington will henceforth hold Iran fully responsible for any aggression by Iraqi Shiite militias against U.S. interests in the country. The presidency of Iraq, which should be held by the second-largest ethnic group in Iraq, namely the Kurds, remains a scene of political struggle, at least between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, but the resolution of this ceremonial yet important post must be finalized today or tomorrow. With the stabilization of the new government and president of Iraq, attention will likely once again turn to Masoud Barzani, the sidelined leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, who apparently is once again seeking to repeat the independence referendum of Iraqi Kurdistan, and based on evidence, 'Barham Salih,' the candidate of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan for the presidency, has also for the first time supported this matter; in that case, the position of the U.S., Israel, and other regional rivals of Iran could turn the tide against Iran in Iraq.