Nobakht: Media Doubts on Government Economic Statistics Are Pursuable

While the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic and his close associates have previously expressed doubts about the accuracy of the government's economic statistics, the government spokesman criticized the 'doubts' raised by opposing media regarding these statistics, labeling it as 'slander' and 'pursuable'. According to footage released by news agencies, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht stated in a press conference on Tuesday, March 6, that 'the Statistical Center is the official body for announcing statistics. Anyone who has something to say should ask this center for clarification, rather than interviewing an unemployed person and then questioning the government's unemployment statistics.' Nobakht also emphasized that the reports from the Statistical Center are not only related to the government but are 'related to the system', asserting that 'doubts' regarding these statistics are 'pursuable'. He added, 'Of course, we have shortcomings in the economy, but positive actions have also been taken. Why do you say we are lagging behind or that the economy is facing problems? These are Trump’s words that say if we apply pressure, it’s all over.' He also mentioned, without naming, that a media outlet claiming 'revolutionary spirit' has a 'habit of blackening and darkening the situation in the country and spreading slander.' Two days before Nobakht's remarks, Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, described the opposition to his government as stemming from 'irrationality' and equated it with opposition to 'national interests'. Rouhani made this statement in response to what he called the 'achievement of a single-digit inflation rate', stating that 'some are trying to undermine this achievement.' Previously, the Supreme Leader and his close associates, as well as state media, have repeatedly expressed doubts about the accuracy of the government's economic statistics. For instance, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior advisor and special assistant to the Supreme Leader on military affairs, called the government’s statistics on economic growth and job creation 'unrealistic', stating that 'people see at their tables that this has not happened.' Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the government’s statistics regarding economic improvement, including reduced inflation and exiting recession, 'do not reflect the real situation of the country and the lives of the people.' On March 9 of the previous year, during a meeting with members of the Assembly of Experts, he expressed doubts about the accuracy of the government’s statistics regarding the improvement of people's economic conditions, stating that 'these do not affect people's lives and livelihoods in the short and medium term.' In contrast, Rouhani defended his government's achievements in controlling inflation, economic growth, and employment in his Nowruz message in 2017, calling it 'unprecedented' compared to the past 25 years. On February 6, Masoud Karbasian, the Minister of Economy, stated that the country's economic growth rate, excluding oil revenues, is six percent. Meanwhile, the World Bank published a report on the global economic outlook for the current year, estimating Iran's GDP growth at only 4.3 percent. According to this report, Iran's economic growth for 2019 and 2020 will also be 4.3 percent each. Some experts argue that Iran's economic growth in recent years has been due to the lifting of Western sanctions and the resumption of oil sales, which has not impacted employment increases. Fereydoun Khavand, an economist based in Paris, previously stated in an interview that the economic growth rate in Iran is the result of increased exports and oil sales, which does not necessarily lead to job creation and improvement in Iran's labor market. Ali Rabiei, the Minister of Labor, Cooperatives, and Social Welfare, also recently acknowledged that the Iranian economy lacks the 'capacity and capability' to solve the unemployment issue. According to the Statistical Center of Iran's results from the fall 2017 labor force survey, the unemployment rate reached 11.9 percent this fall. The report indicated that the unemployment rate among youths aged 15-29 shows that 25 percent of the active population in this age group is unemployed. This indicator is higher among women compared to men and in urban areas compared to rural areas. Furthermore, according to the Statistical Center's report, although the overall unemployment rate in Iran last year was 12.4 percent, unemployment in Kermanshah province was 22 percent and in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, it was 20.2 percent. In Kurdistan, unemployment was reported to be over 15 percent. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the Minister of Interior, stated on October 1 that despite the 12 percent unemployment rate in Iran, in some cities, the unemployment rate reaches 60 percent. However, he did not specify which cities have unemployment rates exceeding 60 percent. Two days later, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht denied the statistics announced by the Minister of Interior. The method of calculating the unemployment rate in Iran has always been a subject of dispute and has undergone multiple definitions.