Nobakht: The Sixth Development Plan Will Be Drafted with Three Scenarios

The head of the Management and Planning Organization and government spokesman of Iran announced that the country's sixth development plan will be drafted with three scenarios: 'normal', 'failure of nuclear negotiations with the 5+1 group', and 'success of these negotiations'. According to the state news agency IRNA, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht stated on Thursday evening, May 24, that if the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 5+1 group succeed, 'significant resources', including 'one hundred billion dollars over several years', will enter the Iranian economy. Officials of Hassan Rouhani's government have previously announced that the drafting of the sixth development plan has begun and this plan will be implemented in the country starting in 2016. The head of the Management and Planning Organization stated that the government will 'assess the impact' of the nuclear negotiations on the sixth development plan in economic, social, and cultural areas and will draft 'three scenarios' in this regard. According to Mr. Nobakht, 'the normal course and continuation of the current situation' is one of the scenarios for drafting the sixth development plan. If the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 5+1 group succeed, 'significant resources', including 'one hundred billion dollars over several years', will enter the Iranian economy. Mohammad Baqer Nobakht added: 'Another condition is planning based on the failure of negotiations, which the government will not wait for and will proceed with its planning.' Mr. Nobakht had previously mentioned that for the year 2015, in addition to the regular budget, two other budgets have been prepared, one of which is for 'bad' conditions and for the 'failure' of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the 5+1 countries. Meanwhile, the International Institute of Finance (IIF) reported on December 5, 2014, that if the talks about Iran's nuclear program do not succeed, Tehran's economy will reach a 'catastrophic' state. According to Mr. Nobakht, the success of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 5+1 group will bring 'significant resources, including one hundred billion dollars over several years' into the Iranian economy, which must be planned for. The head of the Management and Planning Organization mentioned the release of Iran's blocked resources, the removal of existing transportation restrictions, and the presence of investors in Iran as other effects of the success of the negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. Mr. Nobakht's reference to the entry of one hundred billion dollars into Iran's economy in the event of successful nuclear negotiations comes as some officials of the Islamic Republic and Yahya Al-Ishaq, the head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, have previously reported about 'approximately one hundred billion dollars of frozen currency' of Iran in countries like China, India, and Japan. Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran, stated on Sunday, January 11, 2015, that the sanctions of the past three years have reduced Iran's crude oil exports by 50 percent and the country's oil revenues by 'one hundred billion dollars'. The Islamic Republic of Iran is unable to receive part of its oil sales revenues from its old and new customers due to financial sanctions. At the same time, Mr. Nobakht reported on March 11, 2015, that 22 trillion tomans from the country's oil sales revenues have not been collected in 'recent months'. The government of Hassan Rouhani hopes that by resolving Tehran's nuclear case and lifting sanctions, it will increase oil exports and open the way for foreign investment to reduce Iran's economic problems. Tehran and the 5+1 group have announced that they intend to reach a comprehensive agreement regarding Iran's nuclear activities by July 1, but Abbas Araghchi, a senior member of the Iranian delegation in the nuclear negotiations, stated in his latest remarks that drafting the final text of the nuclear agreement will take another week or two, and there are still many disagreements between the parties.