Normalization of Relations Between the U.S. and Cuba: Lessons for Iran

The most significant event of the century - December 17, 2014, will be recorded in the history of international relations as the end of a 54-year period of bilateral and multilateral hostilities between the United States and Cuba. It was in the early 1960s that relations between the two countries were severed after tensions brought the world to the brink of World War III, replaced by endless hostility. Over the past 54 years, sanctions and restrictions have blocked almost any possibility of development and progress for Cuba, plunging the country into a severe economic crisis. Cuba, backed by Soviet Russia, threatened the southeastern shores of the United States by establishing ballistic missile launch sites with nuclear warheads on behalf of the Soviets (Miami is 90 miles from Cuba). This threat was vital, direct, and nuclear, targeting significant portions of U.S. territory and population. After Hiroshima, the idea of nuclear bombs being used again elsewhere was a repetition of disaster. However, with the response of then-President John F. Kennedy and the threat of nuclear retaliation, the crisis ended, but from the next day, the issue of politically-strategic containment of Cuba as an undesirable neighbor for the United States emerged. One of the major topics in international relations to this day has been the study of the Cuban missile crisis. Hundreds of thousands of pages of material at academic and policy-making levels, tens of thousands of discussions and television, radio debates, and speeches have been conducted regarding the Cuban missile crisis, and this crisis is still studied not only from the perspective of strategic decision-making but also from the aspect of bargaining and crisis management. Even today, in all universities around the world, the study of the Cuban missile crisis ranks at the top of examinations in political science and international relations, and similarly, it is pursued in decision-making scenarios in security studies. One of the immediate effects of this crisis, even after it was contained in 1962, was the sudden change in U.S.-Cuba relations, accompanied by a plethora of containment systems and economic, political sanctions, and even espionage and counter-espionage actions or sending mercenaries to Cuba and similar actions. Immediately after the Cuban revolution, a significant number of Cubans migrated to the United States or sought asylum. Many of the actions taken against Cuba and the dispatch of mercenaries involved this dissatisfied population, and their valuable intelligence was considered an important asset. Undoubtedly, the Cuban revolution left an unforgettable legacy in the history of Marxist-Communist movements due to the personalities of its two leaders, 'Ernesto Che Guevara' and 'Fidel Castro'. The wave of international support for Fidel Castro and the aging guerrilla Che Guevara transcended progressive and intellectual circles worldwide and inspired many successful and unsuccessful revolutions after Cuba's liberation from Batista's dictatorship. Even American rulers were pleased that Batista had been overthrown. Another outcome of this revolution was the export of revolutionary waves and the presence of those captivated by the ideas and victory of the Cuban revolution in the prisons of dictators worldwide. Ernesto Che Guevara was killed in October 1967 by Bolivian military dictators. As the wave of revolution subsided in Latin America in the second half of the twentieth century, many young people who admired Che Guevara and saw Fidel Castro as a symbol of resistance against Batista's dominance died in torture chambers with these ideals. The ideas of Marxism and Communism became history with the fall of the Soviet Union. However, in our time and in the countries of the Americas, the name Che Guevara can still excite young people and draw them to the streets for justice. Of course, the difference is that as soon as the spirits of such young people are disturbed, T-shirts adorned with Che Guevara's image are sold and consumed in greater numbers, but when the fever and excitement subside, they are replaced by images of pop singers and Hollywood stars. In comparison to Che Guevara, Fidel Castro, however, found a different political position and after experiencing the Cuban missile crisis, realized how alignment and harmony with a superpower could jeopardize the existence of a small country. Although Fidel Castro, along with Gamal Abdel Nasser, Nehru, and Sukarno, contributed to the formation of the Non-Aligned Movement, which rejected alliances with NATO and Warsaw during the long years of the Cold War, Fidel Castro remained loyal to the ideals of Communism as an eternal ideology for governing his small eleven-million-strong country, Cuba. After the Cuban missile crisis, he met with Nikita Khrushchev, the then Prime Minister of the Soviet Union, and was considered one of the former Soviet allies until the collapse of the Soviet Union. This loyalty came at a high cost for the Cuban people and Fidel Castro himself, and as a result, until just a few years ago, when he handed over the reins of his broken boat to his elder brother Raul Castro due to illness, he could not fulfill his fifty-year promise to create a democratic country (which his revolution promised after the fall of Batista's regime). During Jimmy Carter's presidency, an effort was made to establish relations with Cuba, and Carter attempted to use Nixon's formula in China, even being seen at a baseball game with Fidel Castro - but progress was lacking. While Canada, neighboring the U.S., maintained friendly relations with Fidel Castro and Cuba. After Castro was forced to hand over the administration of the country to his brother in 2008 due to illness, it was said that Raul Castro intended to establish relations with the U.S. In 2013, during the funeral of the late South African President Nelson Mandela, an opportunity arose for Raul to shake hands with Barack Obama, but although this was an unprecedented and astonishing event, it did not go beyond that stage. The world would have to wait a while longer until the arrival of Argentine Pope Francis in international relations witnessed the courageous action of the U.S. President to establish relations with Cuba. Despite the agreement announced a few days ago, there is still a long way to go before normalizing relations. The second and third generations of Cubans who migrated from Havana to Florida and built Little Havana have now become an influential seed in American society. For example, Senator Marco Rubio (a Cuban-American senator from Florida) had the chance to be the Republican Party's nominee for the 2016 presidential elections (at least before this event). On the other hand, the existence of such prominent individuals, of whom Marco Rubio is just one, in various fields of politics and economics, has actually shaped the U.S. political strategy towards Cuba until recently. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Menendez (from New Jersey), both Republicans and opponents of the normalization of relations with Cuba, are not certain to remain in these positions. With Barack Obama's entry into his second presidential term, U.S. policy towards Cuba showed a very sensitive shift. The last two years of a presidency are usually recognized as years for building prestige and leaving a legacy after the presidency. After Democratic senators revealed the CIA's actions during George W. Bush's presidency, Obama was determined to present another layer of his political game. This time, the release of a highly influential American prisoner in Havana's jails in exchange for two Cuban prisoners in the U.S. created a suitable environment for the political will of both countries and their leaders to come together for an important and historic decision. Lessons that Iran can learn from similarities with Cuba: 1. Existence of a conflict - The assumption that Iran intends to produce a nuclear bomb, and if such a bomb is produced, Iran's first target in the region would be America's ally, Israel, is the closest similarity to the Cuban missile crisis. The idea that a nuclear Iran would itself become a major regional and global challenge is the secondary outcome of this assumption. The past year's negotiations, assuming they conclude positively, will erase the effects of this conflict and create the possibility for communication. In other words, for the U.S. President to be able to implement his intention to engage in dialogue and reconciliation with Iran (as he has insisted on improving relations with Iran, Cuba, and North Korea since 2007), a friendly resolution of this conflict is a necessary and sufficient condition. 2. Ideological tension - The Islamic Republic's foreign policy and its relations with the world share similarities with Cuba and Fidel Castro's ideology, and Iranian leaders, particularly Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in recent years, have fueled this outlook. Iran is also a member of the Non-Aligned Movement and has good relations with Cuba. However, membership in the Non-Aligned Movement is not necessarily a negative factor, and even if at one time the maneuvers of this organization led to solutions against the two superpowers, at least today it no longer has that utility and characteristic. However, what opponents of rapprochement with Iran will emphasize, beyond the nuclear issue and like Cuba, will mainly revolve around human rights and democratic freedoms in Iran. 3. Extensive economic sanctions - Iran, like Cuba, is under pressure and suffering from the destructive sanctions of the U.S. and Europe. As we observe in practice, the scope of sanctions extends to China, Japan, India, and even Iran's friend, Russia, and in many cases, third countries cannot ignore it for fear of U.S. sanctions. Despite Iranian officials' denials, sanctions have an immediate impact on the daily lives of citizens and halt or destroy long-term development plans. The entire effort of a country targeted by sanctions is to secure daily life, and as a result, long-term plans also become daily concerns. The continuation of sanctions is not necessarily profitable for the countries or entities imposing them, and in many cases, Western capitalists and industrialists themselves pressure the government to lift the sanctions. The issue is that a government under sanctions cannot claim victory in such conditions or consider sanctions ineffective, as major capitalists are aligned and in agreement with their government's policy regarding the conditions for lifting sanctions, such as respecting human rights and civil rights. This is a condition that cannot be easily ignored. 4. The Iranian community in the U.S. - After thirty-five years of hostile relations between Iran and the U.S. and the presence of a significant population of Iranians in the U.S., most of whom are either citizens with voting rights or second-generation Americans; the presence of influential Iranian communities in decision-making circles and even at the level of one of the two parties in power is quite evident. In terms of social base, Iranian Americans constitute one of the most educated and literate segments of society with high contributions to national wealth production. Alongside this, the existence of a significant number of religious minorities, Jews, Zoroastrians, and Baha'is alongside secular and laic individuals is another influential factor that should not be overlooked. The recent U.S. presidential election clearly showed that some Iranians have even been elected at the legislative and state government levels and have gained influence in U.S. politics. In addition to all this, many politicians utilize the presence of Iranian intellectuals and thinkers in decision-making and sensitive ministries. Thus, while every Iranian-American views the establishment of relations with Iran from the perspective of their national origin, they may also consider it from the perspective of their current social affiliation or secondary nationality. The same argument can be made regarding Cuba. It cannot be concluded that all Iranians will unconditionally support the establishment of relations between the U.S. and Iran. Some may oppose it and pursue their demands through their legal representatives in Congress and the Senate. 5. Existence of political will - Today in the United States, the President is often referred to as someone who has a positive and favorable view towards establishing friendly relations with Iran. Despite the fact that rapprochement with Iran has more opponents in the Republican Party, it can be confidently said that under conditions where Iran takes a positive and final step towards resolving its nuclear dispute and takes visible actions towards respecting human rights within the country, there will also be supportive factors for establishing communication with Iran within both the Democratic and Republican parties. Additionally, ordinary Americans and those who interacted with Iranians before or after the 1979 revolution remember Iran fondly and welcome the reopening of relations with Iran. Influential groups and so-called pro-Iran lobbies are also seen alongside this diverse spectrum. 6. Oil, sugar, and tourism - The history of Cuba shows how the sugar war in Cuba (a title that became established with a series of articles by Jean-Paul Sartre) ultimately ended with Cuba's defeat and the destruction of agricultural and economic resources that were once the pride of Cuba's exports. In Iran, Caspian Sea caviar has disappeared due to the lack of cooperation among Caspian Sea countries. Although the Iranian carpet market still has significant potential to serve as an important export item through the export of artistic-historical products to support Iran's economy, the continuation of sanctions will also destroy it, and Indian machine-made carpets will take its place. Kerman and Rafsanjan pistachios have already been replaced by California pistachios. Afghan pomegranates are also beginning to replace Yazd pomegranates in global markets. What remains and has remained is oil. With the start of exploiting vast oil and gas reserves in Canada and the U.S. and in a very short time, Middle Eastern oil is about to...