North Korea; 24 Years for a Bomb

Since June 25, 1950, the United Nations Security Council has convened 23 times regarding the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and issued resolutions. Over the last 24 years, from May 11, 1993, to August 5 of this year, 17 of these resolutions have been related to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This means that, on average, a resolution has been issued against North Korea's nuclear activities every 18 months. Interestingly, after the Korean War in 1950 and the division of Korea into North and South on August 8, 1991, both North and South Korea were admitted to the United Nations at the recommendation of the UN, and a year later, North Korea signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. On May 11, 1993, the UN Security Council convened to address an important issue regarding North Korea. The North Korean government had informed the Security Council in a letter dated the previous day of its intention to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Apparently, North Korea had ignored repeated invitations from the International Atomic Energy Agency to comply with its treaty obligations and had prevented inspectors from entering the country. The Agency also reported on April 1, 1993, that North Korea had violated its commitments. Resolution 825 was adopted with 13 votes in favor out of 15. China and Pakistan abstained from voting while urging North Korea to remain faithful to its treaty obligations, and at the insistence of China, the Security Council refrained from mentioning any sanctions against North Korea in its resolution. Five years after this abstention, Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, sold the technical knowledge for building an atomic bomb and centrifuges for producing enriched uranium to North Korea. As previously mentioned, the Security Council meetings and the issuance of resolutions concerning North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons have been repeated 17 times over a 24-year period. In some cases, economic sanctions were added as a measure of severity to the resolutions, while in other cases, merely warnings, threats, or condemnations from the Security Council were recorded in the resolutions. What makes the atmosphere of the first resolution similar to today's conditions is North Korea's reaction after the issuance of the resolution, which included further missile tests and the firing of a Rodong-1 missile towards the Sea of Japan, accusing the International Atomic Energy Agency of intending to destroy the 'socialism' governing North Korea. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea lost its main source of financial support and was in complete economic decline. In the absence of Soviet aid, the only ally of Korea was the Republic of China. On the other hand, Kim Il-sung, the leader of North Korea, had aged and weakened, and his son, Kim Jong-il, effectively took over the country's administration. International pressure on North Korea's nuclear program was increasing, and in the meantime, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter visited North Korea in June 1994, met with Kim Il-sung, and upon returning to the U.S., announced that he had resolved the nuclear issue. However, Kim Il-sung died of a heart attack three weeks after meeting President Carter on July 8, 1994, and his son, who had been officially designated as his successor ten years prior, took over the country's leadership. The years of Kim Jong-il's rule were among the worst periods of life for the people of Korea. On one hand, generous aid from former Soviet leaders had ended, and on the other hand, a hunger crisis was rampant in the country despite the government's austerity measures. Following negotiations with President Carter, in October 1994, North Korea re-accepted the framework for IAEA oversight and the commitments of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which it had originally accepted two years earlier but had withdrawn from. In exchange for this concession, it was agreed that North Korea would shut down its heavy-water reactors and place all equipment related to the production of military-use materials under the Agency's control in return for receiving light-water reactors. It should be noted that by this time, no economic sanctions had yet been imposed on North Korea, and the first resolution issued by the Security Council regarding the nuclear program had only asked North Korea to return to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, in 2005 and 2006, under Kim Jong-il's leadership, North Korea intensified its military and nuclear activities. In 1998, during Kim Il-sung's lifetime, North Korea had tested the Taepodong-1 missile, but the missile had failed to reach orbit. On July 5, 2006, the Taepodong-2 intercontinental missile was tested, which was a three-stage missile capable of reaching the western shores of the U.S. in the second stage and any point in the U.S. in the third stage. However, shortly after launch, this unsuccessful test failed, and the missile fell. Security Council Resolution 1695 condemned this action and imposed sanctions against North Korea. Three months later, on October 9, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested an underground atomic bomb. Seismographs in South Korea confirmed this test. Five days later, the UN Security Council reacted very strongly to this test by adopting Resolution 1718 and approved a series of financial and economic sanctions (on exports and imports) both in commercial and military areas. China, North Korea's ally, refused to implement the resolution and continued to support North Korea. North Korea rejected the sanctions, deeming the Security Council's actions as 'intimidation' and equivalent to the actions of 'gangsters.' In fact, from that period onward, alongside diplomatic and resolution challenges, a verbal war between North Korea and the United Nations also began. North Korea declared that such resolutions were akin to a declaration of war and that although the country did not seek war, it was not afraid of it, and if its national sovereignty was threatened, it would engage in a 'ruthless war.' From this date until December 2011, when Kim Jong-il was in charge of North Korea, the Security Council issued Resolutions 1784, 1887, 1928, and 1985, each time increasing pressure on North Korea for its nuclear and missile activities. In August 2010, Kim Jong-il traveled to China with his young son, Kim Jong-un. He again visited China in May 2011 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance and later that month traveled by train to the Russian Far East to meet with then-President Dmitry Medvedev. After that, he was last seen on September 9 with his son at a military parade. A few months later, on the morning of December 17, while traveling by train outside Pyongyang, he died of a heart attack at the age of 72. After Kim Jong-il's death, no one believed that the young Kim Jong-un would succeed him. There was little information about him, and even the exact date of his birth (1982 or 1984) is still unclear. He had been seen rarely in public, and it was uncertain how much he knew about politics and government. Nevertheless, he was introduced as the leader of North Korea. A year later, North Korean media announced that at his order, his uncle Jang Song-thaek had been executed. After a series of unsuccessful tests that led to the extension of sanctions and the issuance of Security Council Resolution 2050, North Korea successfully launched its first satellite on the anniversary of Kim Jong-il's death. Apparently, the satellite initially reached orbit successfully, but later Western space sources reported that it encountered technical problems and could not remain in orbit. The Security Council condemned this action with the issuance of Resolution 2087 on January 22, 2013, and increased the level of sanctions against the country. However, the new North Korean leader was determined to continue his work without regard to the sanctions. North Korea again announced on February 12, 2013, that it had successfully conducted another nuclear test. This was the third test in seven years, and Chinese sources recorded the earthquake caused by North Korea's nuclear explosion. Once again, another resolution (Resolution 2094 - March 7, 2013) and more sanctions, which were again extended from March 5, 2014, to April 5, 2015, were issued. Sanctions and the mission of the monitoring team continued until 2016, and suddenly North Korea made headlines worldwide with another nuclear test and a missile test. The test on January 6, 2016, was the fourth nuclear test. Although North Korean media referred to it as a hydrogen bomb, control centers in South Korea dismissed this claim, stating it was an enhanced fission bomb that could be launched by a missile but did not have the destructive power of a hydrogen bomb. Between March 2 and March 24, 2016, the Security Council issued two resolutions, 2270 and 2276, imposing sanctions on part of North Korea's luxury goods imports and even diplomatic movements. However, all these pressures could not prevent North Korea's fifth nuclear test on September 9 of the previous year. The country's media claimed hours after the test that the tested warhead was capable of being launched by a missile. North Korea's nuclear tests increased the threat level in the region. The Security Council condemned it, and particularly South Korea and Japan were very concerned about the escalation of the crisis. On the other hand, the U.S., U.K., and France called for the establishment of new sanctions, with then-U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter holding China, North Korea's main ally, responsible, while China did not believe in further sanctions. President Obama, the then U.S. President, announced in a statement with the Prime Minister of Japan that they would take non-military actions based on the provisions of Article 41 of the UN Charter. What does North Korea want? Apparently, none of the political actions, economic sanctions, or military threats have been effective in ending North Korea's activities. President Obama was nearing the final months of his presidency. The nuclear deal with Iran had been signed and was in the implementation stages, and there was unfounded optimism that perhaps a political-economic agreement could also be reached with North Korea. Poverty and hunger were rampant in North Korea. Security Council Resolution 2321 was issued on November 30, 2016, less than 50 days before Donald Trump's presidency began (who was then the President-elect). Although this resolution blocked some potential avenues for technological and economic cooperation with North Korea, it was clear that it could not prevent Kim Jong-un's subsequent actions. North Korea was determined to solidify its position as a nuclear power. For this country, it had become a strong desire for other nuclear and economic powers in the world to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power and to speak to it in a language of threat and intimidation. It seems that North Korea would not settle for anything less, and the events of 2017 reinforce this assumption. A few weeks later, when President Trump entered the White House instead of President Obama, the last hopes for a political solution faded, and the threat of military confrontation took its place. In the first three months of Trump's presidency, the Security Council extended the mandate of the group of experts with Resolution 2345 until April 24, 2018, and asked them to report on how previous sanctions against North Korea were being implemented by August 5, 2017. While the international community awaited an assessment of the results of these sanctions, North Korea conducted a series of missile tests on April 4, 16, and 29. On May 14, a ballistic missile was tested, and on June 8, four anti-ship missiles were fired at coastal points in North Korea. On July 4, an intercontinental missile named Hwasong-14 was tested, which, although it could not reach U.S. territory, could reach the shores of Alaska. Less than four weeks later, on July 28, North Korea tested a new missile. This missile, which was the fourteenth missile tested in 2017, had a greater range than other missiles and was launched from a different state. According to experts from U.S. nuclear proliferation study centers, this missile potentially had the capability to reach cities like Denver in Colorado and Chicago. The threats had wounded and angered Kim Jong-un. It was clear that Kim Jong-un was deeply upset by the threatening words of the U.S. President and wanted to showcase North Korea's missile capabilities with another test at any cost. While Security Council resolutions prohibit North Korea from testing ballistic missiles, such tests continued at an increasing pace and in various directions, with the last one passing over Japan on July 29. In response to the threats from President Trump and U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis, and while the U.S. was conducting comprehensive maneuvers in the region with its regional allies, including South Korea and Japan, North Korea launched its last desperate measure. Initially, the country's media showed an image of a small bomb, which they claimed was a hydrogen warhead ready to be mounted on an intercontinental missile. Hours after this visual display on Sunday, August 3, another test was conducted, which Pyongyang claims is a hydrogen bomb. No independent source has confirmed these claims. The fission bomb (nuclear thermal) known as a hydrogen bomb, as previously mentioned, does not have the destructive capacity of a hydrogen bomb and is lighter but has greater launch capability. At the same time, such bombs have several times the destructive power of the bomb used in Hiroshima. Given the available information, the range of missiles carrying these bombs from North Korea reaches any point in the United States, but it is unclear how quickly North Korea can produce how many of these bombs or missiles.