Note: Muqtada al-Sadr's Return to the Political Arena in Iraq

Iraq's parliamentary elections, following the end of ISIS's dominance over parts of the country, are a significant political event in this unstable region of the Middle East. Haider al-Abadi did not receive the expected votes in the elections, but the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr unexpectedly shone. What is known as the 'Sadr Movement' is actually the coalition 'Sairoon' affiliated with the influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr significantly distanced himself from two other lists, namely 'Al-Fath' linked to Hadi al-Amiri and the 'State of Law' coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, and unexpectedly emerged at the top of Iraq's electoral list. Thus, the likelihood that Muqtada al-Sadr will form the next government of Iraq is very high, but Iraq's constitution has its own complexities that allow for the possibility of reaching coalitions in other forms. In the past, Muqtada al-Sadr had close relations with Iran, but he fell out with Iran during the last years of Nouri al-Maliki's premiership. One reason for this disagreement was the parallel role of the Mahdi Army, which al-Sadr used to protest against Nouri al-Maliki's policies by marching into Baghdad multiple times. Additionally, al-Sadr called for the ousting of Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria, which clearly conflicted with Iran's policies. The peak of this disagreement occurred in July of last year, followed by al-Sadr's unexpected trip to Saudi Arabia, and since then, this relationship has effectively been severed. Over the past year, Muqtada al-Sadr has shown a much more complex face. He has established good relations with the Kurds and Sunni politicians in Iraq. Furthermore, despite Saudi Arabia not having friendly relations with Iraq since 2003, and al-Sadr having strongly criticized Saudi Arabia during the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, even calling on the Iraqi government to close the Saudi embassy in Baghdad, he suddenly traveled to Saudi Arabia on August 8 of last year and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and some officials from that country. Given Mohammed bin Salman's positions, Tehran views Muqtada al-Sadr's trip with skepticism and suspicion, and now that al-Sadr's coalition will take power in Iraq, his relationship with Saudi Arabia should be seen as a gateway for Saudi Arabia's entry into Iraq's equations and the warming of relations between the two countries, consequently leading to a distancing of Iraq's relations with Tehran. There are other coalitions with good votes in the next ranks. These coalitions include 'Al-Fath' led by Hadi al-Amiri, the commander of the Iran-backed Shia militia known as Hashd al-Shaabi, and the 'State of Law' coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki. Both al-Maliki and al-Amiri are supported by Iran, and at the same time, Hashd al-Shaabi enjoys popularity due to its significant role in defeating ISIS. However, Iraq's Sunnis are not particularly pleased with the Shia Hashd al-Shaabi. This group has a history of harsh actions against Sunnis residing in areas controlled by ISIS, and many believe that after driving ISIS out of various parts of Iraq, Hashd al-Shaabi has harassed Sunni residents of those areas and, in some cases, forced them to leave their homes by destroying their houses to create more homogenous Shia demographic areas. Despite the undeniable trump card in Muqtada al-Sadr's hands, there are still many political changes and alignments remaining before the formation of the next government. In addition to the shifting of groups until the formation of the final coalition that will lead to the establishment of the government, the role of Ayatollah Sistani as one of the determining factors in shaping the structure of the future government should not be overlooked. Muqtada al-Sadr has a close relationship with Ayatollah Sistani, who is considered a pragmatic and moderate figure and has played a very important role in critical moments of Iraq's recent history. He seeks to resolve problems with a balanced view, away from radical positions in the face of the toughest circumstances, while not retreating from his often principled positions. In an interview last July with Asharq Al-Awsat, Muqtada al-Sadr spoke of forming a front of 'independent technocrats' who could guide Iraq through the storm and 'serve the people.' In the meantime, al-Sadr's slogans in support of the marginalized masses have even attracted Iraq's communists. Now, in the current electoral atmosphere, Muqtada al-Sadr has referred to cooperation with a wide range of internal groups, including the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani. It should not be forgotten that Muqtada al-Sadr has been accused of having contradictory positions in politics during the years following Saddam. The victory of the Sairoon coalition could either mark the beginning of a series of hardline policies distancing from Iran or could pave the way for limiting Iran's influence among Iraq's political groups with a government composed of independent technocrats. Of course, unlike Lebanon, Iran has not invested in a specific faction in Iraq but has worked with multiple groups that hold seats in the Iraqi parliament. On the other hand, when we see Muntadhar al-Zaidi (the journalist who threw a shoe at George Bush) citing Iran's interference as the reason for his candidacy in the Iraqi elections, considering the Iraqi government a puppet of its neighbors, it becomes clear how dissatisfied Iraqis are with Iran's interventions in their country and that they do not view it merely as simple cooperation to defeat ISIS. Opposing al-Sadr's coalition is the Al-Fath coalition led by Hadi al-Amiri, who is the commander of the Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi militia. This group could potentially align with Nouri al-Maliki's coalition known as the 'State of Law.' For these two groups to form a government coalition, they still need to reach agreements with Al-Hikma led by Ammar al-Hakim and the Sunni factions active in the Sunni provinces of Anbar and Salah al-Din. In any case, both Muqtada al-Sadr and the Al-Fath coalition must be able to reach some form of agreement with major Kurdish parties such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union. After the new government is formed, one of the first issues will be Iraq's foreign policy, particularly its relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United States, and at that stage, the relationship with Iran will once again come under scrutiny. It is expected that the overall political trend in Iraq will move towards distancing from Iran, but it cannot be said how quickly this trend is taking shape. Groups supported by Iran are gradually being sidelined, although opposition to Iran has not yet been officially and practically adopted as a policy. Whatever the outcome of this election, Iran is the loser. With the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, the next step is expected to be limiting Iran's regional influence. It is clear that in Iraq, where the power of Hashd al-Shaabi has changed from military to political and then has descended to a second-tier group politically, the U.S. will have greater maneuverability. Or at least this is the calculation that U.S. officials are considering. With the changing of political actors, this ability will increase more and more. The least interpretation that can be made at this stage is that Iran's influence in Iraq peaked during the ISIS dominance but has rapidly declined after ISIS's defeat. Containing Iran's influence is momentarily changing, and Muqtada al-Sadr's victory in the elections is just one manifestation of that change.