Note: The Crisis of Expelling Russian Diplomats

The Western world and Russia have many disagreements on various issues, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russian interventions in eastern Ukraine. Many countries also disapprove of Russia's military operations in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad, and in theory and practice oppose Russia's foreign policy towards Iran and Syria. With the beginning of President Trump's term in January 2017, as he himself announced, the U.S. intended to establish better relations with Russia, and the President did not show much inclination towards strictness in relations with Russia. This perception of Trump was criticized by many, including members of the Democratic Party and his own party (Republicans). Last year, when Congress approved a joint sanctions bill against Russia, Iran, and North Korea, the President signed it but delayed the implementation of the part related to Russia, only issuing the executive order for its implementation in mid-March. The announcement of the expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats from the U.S. is the most severe action President Trump has taken regarding Russia so far. Following this, the White House spokesperson described the action as a step to reduce Russia's ability to spy on the U.S. and an effort to increase U.S. security. However, it is unclear why the U.S. President did not directly discuss this issue with Putin during a phone conversation after the results of the Russian elections were announced. The concerns of the U.S. and Europe should not be forgotten that espionage is a field where government reactions are usually swift and varied. Immediately following the attack on Sergei Skripal, the British government ordered the expulsion of 23 Russian diplomats. Russia, while denying the accusation of involvement in this case, expelled a number of British diplomats in a reciprocal action. When on March 4, 66-year-old Sergei Skripal and his 33-year-old daughter, Yulia, were found unconscious on a bench in a shopping center in Salisbury, southern Britain, and quickly taken to the hospital, no one thought that three weeks later, diplomatic relations among NATO member countries towards Russia would undergo such intense and extensive changes. Even up to ten days prior, Prime Minister Theresa May had been unable to convince her NATO allies that the nerve agent attack on a former Russian spy in her country constituted an 'attack' on a NATO member state and required a collective response from NATO member countries. When fifteen months ago, President Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats in response to Russian interventions in the U.S. presidential elections, no one attempted to evaluate the Russian interventions from the perspective of interference in NATO member countries. While interference in the elections of other countries through cyberspace is not unprecedented, accusations of interference in the elections of other countries have also been leveled against the Russians. However, on the morning of Monday, March 26, this issue took on a new form. In an unprecedented move, President Trump ordered the expulsion of 60 Russian 'diplomats.' These individuals are given one week to leave U.S. soil. Based on this order, the Russian consulate in Seattle (Washington State) is also to be closed. The presence of a U.S. naval base in this state is one of the reasons for closing the consulate, as there is strong suspicion that Russian diplomats or security officials (spies) at this consulate could focus on the activities of naval bases and gather information. During the height of the Cold War, under President Ronald Reagan, 55 Soviet diplomats were expelled from the U.S., and since then, there has been no precedent for such a number of Russian diplomats being expelled. At the same time, 15 European countries and Canada also ordered the expulsion of several Russian diplomats from their countries. There is a possibility that other countries may be added to this list. Who is Sergei Skripal? Sergei Skripal is a retired colonel of the Russian army who was arrested in 2004 on charges of spying for Britain and was tried in Russia in 2006, sentenced to 13 years in prison. His accusation was that he had provided the identities of Russian undercover agents in Europe to British intelligence (MI6). Russia claimed that he had been doing this from 1995 until his arrest in 2004, and in return, MI6 had paid him $100,000 for transferring that confidential information. However, shortly after his conviction, Colonel Skripal was pardoned by Dmitry Medvedev, the then President of Russia, and was handed over to the U.S. in a spy swap program in 2010 and then flew from the U.S. to Britain. At that time, the newspaper 'Komsomolskaya Pravda' claimed that a 13-year prison sentence was a very light punishment and such an accusation would easily have led to his execution during the Soviet era. Since then, Sergei Skripal has been living in Britain with his daughter. According to reports, since the attack, both father and daughter have been in critical condition and receiving treatment. The act of 'biological assassination' of Sergei Skripal with a nerve agent, nearly eight years after his pardon and exchange with the West, raises several questions and is significant: First, the nerve agent known as 'Novichok' is a chemical weapon that was produced and used by the military during the Soviet Union, and its use has not been seen in Europe since World War II. Secondly, for such an action to be carried out against an individual or individuals in a location, in addition to the substance used, there must be individuals who can carry out the attack, which is extremely concerning for Britain. In fact, carrying out this act means that there are other individuals in Britain who are either Russian agents or mercenaries hired for this purpose. The third issue is the motivation of the Russians in carrying out such an act. Did individuals outside the government and security agencies act with nationalist and extremist motivations? Does the attack on a former spy signify regret over his pardon and exchange? Does Sergei Skripal still possess undisclosed information that the Russians are worried about revealing? Or is this act merely a demonstration of operational capability to Britain and, by extension, to Western countries? From a public health perspective, the use of this nerve agent in crowded places could have simultaneously poisoned about 130 other individuals. Therefore, this act is considered the use of chemical weapons. Finally, the timing of this operation, coinciding with the presidential elections in Russia, raises questions about its significance. It is worth noting that Vladimir Putin announced at a press conference right after initial results showed his victory in the elections that Russia lacks such weapons (nerve agents) and that it is other countries that still possess them. In other words, these statements can be interpreted as a form of projection. What is a spy diplomat? When talking about an embassy or consulate, minds often turn to visas and passports. However, the activities of an embassy, and to a lesser extent a consulate, are not limited to issuing visas and residency or immigration issues. Within an embassy, especially those of large countries with a high number of resident diplomats, various groups are assigned to different tasks. The individuals assigned to these missions often enter the country with diplomatic passports and are considered economic, commercial, military, technological, cultural, and press attaches, enjoying diplomatic immunity. Perhaps most importantly are the teams whose mission is to gather confidential information but operate under other covers. In other words, they collect information that governments do not directly publish, and its disclosure could interfere with and harm their national interests and security. In other words, such individuals can be spies acting under the guise of diplomats. Some of the information collected may directly relate to military and security issues. However, even if their mission is revealed, they still enjoy diplomatic immunity, and ultimately, they can only be asked to leave the country with a short notice; and this is what the U.S. and European governments are currently doing to protect their security and national interests. Any other actions, including those taken against American diplomats in Iran, are contrary to international norms and illegal. Another aspect of the activities of spy diplomats or intelligence and security agents of an embassy is recruiting local and indigenous individuals who come across their paths in various ways. Identifying these individuals, especially in open societies where there is no specific control over people's movements, is very difficult. And it is likely that this was the cover used for the biological assassination of Sergei Skripal. In any case, the direct result of the biological assassination in Britain is the damage inflicted on diplomatic relations between a group of European countries, the U.S., and Russia. A damage that will take a very long time to repair.