Note: The Impact of the Succession Dispute Over Ayatollah Khamenei on the December 2017 Protests

Two factors, aging and illness, have increased the likelihood of Ayatollah Khamenei's death. The selection of his successor is a challenging task that everyone is watching. There is a kind of competition among the potential candidates for succession. This fundamental issue or power struggle is related to the popular protests of December 2017. The protest movement was caused by many reasons and continues to be so. In three articles titled "Say 'Death to Rouhani'", "Read 'Death to Hassan Rouhani'", "The Roots of the December 2017 Protest Movement: Economy and Revolution?" and "The Relationship Between Participation in the December 2017 Protest Movement and Revolution and Transition to Democracy"; I have explored some aspects of this movement. In this writing, I will only discuss the direct and indirect relationship between "the competition for leadership succession" and the emergence of "the December 2017 protest movement". On the third day of the protest movement, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati - who also heads the Assembly of Experts - acknowledged the role of this issue on January 9, 2018, stating: "Enemies... are certainly thinking about what to do after the leadership". These remarks were made on January 9, which they consider the day the 2009 sedition ended, and they commemorate it every year. Their concerns are not unfounded and these worries influenced the emergence of the December protests. Potential main candidates and power struggle In the 2000s, Ayatollah Khamenei told members of the Assembly of Experts: "You should have at least 10 leaders up your sleeve." After that, a secret committee was formed in the Assembly of Experts to discuss and confidentially select individuals who are potential candidates for this position. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani also stated in an interview with the Law newspaper on June 19, 2016, that a commission in the Assembly of Experts had "secretly" introduced two individuals as candidates for the future leadership of the Islamic Republic after negotiating with several hundred people. He added that "two or three specialists" in the Commission of Article 107 of the Constitution study potential leadership options and "grade individuals so that if necessary, they can be presented in the Assembly". The names of suitable candidates for leadership succession are only known to Ayatollah Khamenei. Considering the conditions and characteristics that the Constitution sets for the Supreme Leader, among the members of the Assembly of Experts, Hashemi Shahroudi, Sadeq Larijani, and Ebrahim Raisi are more prominent than others. Although Ayatollah Khamenei and the principlists also pay attention to Ayatollah Mohsen Araki and Ayatollah Alireza A'arafi - the head of the seminaries across the country and the president of Al-Mustafa International University - (refer to the article "The Miracle of 'Converting 50 Million People to Shia' and 'Martyring' Many of Them in Syria and Iraq"). The principlists and the IRGC do not have a unitary relationship with these individuals, but whichever of them is chosen, their position in the system remains established. In this context, Hassan Rouhani is also eyeing Khamenei's succession. This is very bad news that none of the principlist groups and commanders of the IRGC and Basij desire. They consider him a person seeking to compromise with the "world's hegemon" - the United States - and to abandon the slogans and values of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic. In their minds, they equate Hassan Rouhani with Boris Yeltsin. All potential candidates know that their positive performance, on the one hand, and the negative performance of rivals in choosing the future leader are effective. The role of the pillars of the government - especially the military and clerics - and three factions of principlists, moderates, and reformists also intervene in determining the future leader. Thus, various coalitions and plots and sabotage against each other are formed and continue to form. The reformists had no choice but to support Hassan Rouhani's candidacy for the presidency in 2013 and 2017. The reformists hope that someone from their faction will become president in the 2021 elections. However, Hassan Rouhani, who has climbed the ladder of reformists, seems to no longer need them to continue his path, as the reformists do not have a representative in the Assembly of Experts. Hassan Rouhani has made a pact with Ali Larijani. According to this coalition, Hassan Rouhani will be the leader and Ali Larijani will be the president. Hassan Rouhani has begun teaching advanced jurisprudence. The coalition of Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Shahroudi Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's only chance for the future is Hashemi Shahroudi's leadership. According to this coalition, Hashemi Shahroudi will be the leader and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be the president. The activities of Ahmadinejad's supporters must be viewed in this framework. Ahmadinejad's relentless attacks on the Larijani brothers and Hassan Rouhani are aimed at this purpose. Ahmadinejad's supporters do not attack Ebrahim Raisi at all. The coalition of Hassan Rouhani and Ali Larijani The reformists had no choice but to support Hassan Rouhani's candidacy for the presidency in 2013 and 2017. The reformists hope that someone from their faction will become president in the 2021 elections. However, Hassan Rouhani, who has climbed the ladder of reformists, seems to no longer need them to continue his path, as the reformists do not have a representative in the Assembly of Experts. Hassan Rouhani has made a pact with Ali Larijani. According to this coalition, Hassan Rouhani will be the leader and Ali Larijani will be the president. Hassan Rouhani has begun teaching advanced jurisprudence. The policy of these two is to marginalize the hardline forces of all factions of the government, improve relations with the West, integrate into the global economy, etc. In this approach, without resolving the issues of relations with the West, economic problems cannot be solved. Because the United States can unilaterally block foreign investment and technology transfer to Iran by approving sanctions. The coalition of Ebrahim Raisi and Qalibaf and the steadfast ones Ebrahim Raisi knows well that Hashemi Shahroudi is ill. Besides being Iranian, he also has economic issues. The Sadeq Larijani family is also caught up in economic corruption. Although all three (Shahroudi, Larijani, and Raisi) are fierce oppressors, the two do not reach the level of Ebrahim Raisi in terms of crimes. Ebrahim Raisi is considered "pure and belonging to the deprived class" compared to these three. Sadeq Larijani has suffered many blows in recent years, one of which was the exposure of the use of profits from the judiciary's accounts. Ayatollah Mohammadi Kermani claimed that Raisi has 16 million "halal votes". His father-in-law - Ayatollah Alam al-Huda - recently said that Hassan Rouhani won the election through organization and trickery. For Raisi and his supporters, the main danger is Hassan Rouhani. In this coalition, Raisi becomes the leader and Qalibaf or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf becomes the president. The December 2017 protest movement The principlists intended to eliminate Hassan Rouhani's chances in the presidential election of May 29, 2017. For a long time, all principlists highlighted economic issues and problems, and Rostam Qasemi - the former commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters - said, "Today the country is on the brink of economic collapse." Mohsen Rezaei said that if Rouhani becomes president again, Iran will become the "second Sudan". However, they lost the election. But they did not abandon the issue. They intensified their economic demands and fanned the flames of protests against Hassan Rouhani as much as they could. The entire cabinet of Ahmadinejad has formed and continues to form the main forces of Ebrahim Raisi. They, in Mashhad, in collaboration with the Basij of Mashhad, the Steadfast Front, Ayatollah Alam al-Huda, and Ahmadinejad's supporters, initiated the December 2017 protest movement. Thus, the protests began in Mashhad. When Ayatollah Alam al-Huda commands the principlists to gain power and win the elections: "Commit adultery, drink alcohol, and engage in all kinds of vice and sin, then repent, and God will forgive you," but if you do not unite and form a coalition and lose the election to the reformists and principlists, you will certainly be hell-bound and treasonous; it is clear that he will do anything to bring down Hassan Rouhani. On January 6, 2018 - the day before the protest movement began from Mashhad - Ayatollah Alam al-Huda launched very harsh attacks on Hassan Rouhani, claiming that he has allied with the United States and Europe to maintain power and even stated: "The opposing current has come to power through engineered elections... Their goal is to maintain their authority because to continue their authority, after coming to power through engineered elections, they will do anything to preserve it and continue it, even by putting their hands in the hands of the enemy and making the enemy their supporter for the continuation of their power." Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on January 7, 2018, stated, "We have sunk in the economy" and "systematic corruption" has engulfed the entire country. The all-out assault that had begun long ago with an economic mobilization against the government and fanning the increasing economic demands aimed to finish Hassan Rouhani's work. Thus, the protest movement began. Ali Motahari - the Vice Speaker of Parliament - stated on January 22, 2018, that the group "Hezbollah Mashhad" which had previously attacked and destroyed the Saudi consulate in Mashhad and "Ahmadinejad's followers" invited people to gather through social media, and Alam al-Huda also confirmed the economic protest gathering in Friday prayers. Alam al-Huda confirmed the economic protest demands against the government in his Friday prayer sermon on January 8, 2018, only rejecting the subversive political slogans (see his entire sermon on his website). Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, a member of the Assembly of Experts, was the speaker at the January 9, 2018 ceremony in Tehran. He stated that Telegram must definitely be blocked and given America's breach of promise, the government must exit the JCPOA and return to "the pre-JCPOA era". This means they exploited the protest movement to close social media and cancel the JCPOA. By the prosecutor's order, Telegram was blocked. All clerics mobilized and defended the economic protest movement against Rouhani, but the movement slipped out of their hands and turned into a political movement against Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Republic. The finger of blame was pointed most at the father of Ebrahim Raisi's wife. On January 26, Ayatollah Alam al-Huda denied his role in a letter to the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stating that he was not present in Mashhad on the day the protest movement began and that the protest movement had started in Tehran. While prior planning and incitement for protests against Rouhani did not require being present in Mashhad on that day. Mahmoud Alavi, the Minister of Intelligence, stated on January 30 about the catalyst of the popular protest movement: "The starting point of the crisis was not the actions of enemies, but the fanning of discontent that caused the events." In closed sessions, he also stated that the pumping of despair and hopelessness was carried out by Friday prayer leaders and state television. Three other important points also confirm the role of a significant part of the regime in instigating the protest movement against Hassan Rouhani: First - Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, declared on January 13, 2018, the "defeat and end of the sedition of 2017" and from that day on, the protest movements almost ceased. Second - Two weeks after the protests ended, it was reported that fewer than one hundred detainees remained. Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, the Tehran prosecutor, stated on January 30 about the number of remaining detainees: "So far, 54 indictments have been issued, and the number of detainees has dropped to less than 20, decisions will be made about them this week." Third - Why are Ahmadinejad and his supporters free to say and do whatever they want? What program is Ayatollah Khamenei executing with Ahmadinejad's supporters? Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei wrote on January 26 about the protest movement and the future of the Islamic Republic that if the Shah had apologized to the people on January 26, 1978, by acknowledging the mistakes and errors of the government apparatus and had sought to reform matters, he might not have had to flee the country on January 26, 1979. The Islamic Republic too, if it does not apologize to the people after the protest movement and does not undertake fundamental reforms, will meet the fate of the Shah's regime. If Rouhani's rivals had no role in instigating and ending the protest movement, firstly: why did the movement end with the announcement of its conclusion? Secondly: why does a movement that, according to Ayatollah Khamenei, was instigated by the U.S. and Israel with Saudi money, have only this small number of accused? Hassan Rouhani's reaction and playing his rivals Hassan Rouhani stated that the protesters had not only economic demands and should not be insulted. Rouhani firmly stated that the IRGC has no right to intervene and is only permitted to assist in exceptional cases where the police request help. He ordered that Telegram be unblocked, detainees be released quickly, and all the protesters' demands be addressed. Hassan Rouhani is skilled at changing the political agenda. Therefore, after the popular protest movement, he raised the issue of the right to criticize all political leaders - even the Prophet and Imams. Thus, the principlists reacted strongly. The clerics of the Assembly of Experts, who are supposed to choose Ali Khamenei's successor, considered him an "illiterate person" who has only a basic understanding of Islam and Shia. Ayatollah Sheikh Mahdi Shabzendeh stated on January 23, 2018: "It becomes clear that you have not studied your lessons properly. This is why we say study correctly and properly understand your jurisprudence and principles. An illiterate person makes such statements." Ayatollah Mohsen Araki stated on January 24, 2018: "Apparently, you have forgotten the lessons you studied in your youth, so it is better to focus on your politics; when you do not have the knowledge, do not interfere in people's beliefs. The people's livelihood and worldly problems are numerous, and when you do not have the knowledge, do not meddle in their spiritual matters." Ayatollah Gholamali Safaei Bushehri stated on January 24 that Hassan Rouhani should focus on solving economic issues, not making political statements and personal motivations by saying that the Prophet and Imams are open to criticism. We will not allow him to achieve his goal - leadership? - without fundamental and structural reforms, there will be no breakthroughs, and issues will remain unresolved.