Nuclear Commitments; The Other Side of the Coin of Preserving the JCPOA

In days when the JCPOA is in a limbo state and Western and Eastern companies are withdrawing from newly formed collaborations with various Iranian industries for fear of being sanctioned, the European Union is still striving to keep Iran in this agreement and stabilize its economic promises in this regard. European leaders have announced their political agreement to implement various measures to maintain economic relations with Iran, and now the practical preparations for this are being pursued. In this context, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced on Thursday that progress has been made regarding the EU's deterrent law on sanctions against Iran. This law dates back to the 1990s and needs modifications to be applicable to Iran's sanctions. However, Mr. Le Drian stated that the progress achieved is still not sufficient. Economic experts believe that the complexities of implementing the decisions announced by the EU will take a long time to be ready for execution. However, Tehran has set a short-term deadline for Europe until July 1st. Mehrdad Emadi, an economic advisor in the UK, says that the European preparations may take until late September or October, and Iran probably has no option but to wait until then. Mr. Emadi adds, "Unfortunately, we have seen this many times in Iran where a date or framework is put on the table that gains its political weight while these are technical issues involving rewriting regulations. China and Russia are not there to proceed with a party directive. But Iran insists that it is what it is." Mr. Emadi emphasizes that Iran should give the European side more time in this regard and states, "This view that you must cooperate with us under these conditions has repeatedly set Iran back. I believe that the date Iran has proposed, although we take it seriously, is not in the country's interests. There may be a difference between the political system and what we know of the country, but it will not be in the country's interest to turn our backs on these discussions and say that because you did not fulfill our request by the specified date in July, we will distance ourselves from this agreement." However, in the context of preserving the JCPOA, there is another layer, apart from its economic aspect, that some European diplomats have expressed concerns about regarding how to continue its implementation. An European diplomat told Reuters that everyone is focused on preserving the economic part of the nuclear agreement, but if "the countries that remain in the agreement fail to implement its nuclear part, while Iran adheres to its commitments in that regard, it will create a strange situation." The JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, includes multiple clauses regarding how to limit Iran's nuclear program. Among the restrictions considered in this agreement is the issue of the Arak heavy water reactor, which the parties agreed to redesign. A project for which the United States was responsible for approval and China was supposed to be the main executor. Now that the United States has described the JCPOA as flawed and has exited it, numerous questions have arisen regarding the continuation of these JCPOA conditions. According to Reuters, in last week's meeting of the JCPOA Implementation Commission held in Vienna without the presence of the United States, the nuclear commitments section was discussed in detail by representatives of Iran and the UK, China, France, Germany, and Russia. An European diplomat described the current situation as unreasonable, stating that the U.S. exit from the JCPOA and the return of sanctions may halt work on facilities like Arak and Fordow, which he said "means stopping the dismantling of Iran's nuclear facilities." Mark Hibbs, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in Berlin, adds another layer to this complexity: "Companies like CNNC or CGN in China, which are very large state-owned companies and also leaders in China's nuclear industry, want to operate globally. These companies may ultimately have to choose between cooperating with Iran or American companies. This will not be a small issue because the governments of these countries want this cooperation between, for example, CNNC or Rosatom and Iran for sovereign and strategic reasons." Mark Hibbs in Germany states that due to this complexity, American companies in this field may negotiate and lobby with their government to ensure that their counterparts in China or Russia are not sanctioned, as they would be deprived of their connections with these companies. "For some, this may not be understandable since the U.S. has exited the agreement, but practically, the U.S. can say that it recognizes the importance of certain projects related to the JCPOA that align with non-proliferation goals. For example, the issue of the Arak facilities could be one of these matters. The U.S. can say that any Chinese company or any other company participating in this project will not be sanctioned, but if they have any other cooperation with Iran's Atomic Energy Organization that is not approved by the U.S. government, they will be sanctioned. In this context, U.S. nuclear industry companies will also try to protect their business with Russian and Chinese companies in the weeks and months ahead." Mr. Hibbs refers to a partnership of a company owned by Bill Gates that has an agreement with the Chinese company CNNC to build a reactor with American design in China, and any cooperation of this Chinese company with Iran and its potential sanctioning may overshadow American exchanges with it. The U.S. government states that all these issues are under review. Tom Ford, a U.S. State Department official, in a written response to Reuters, said, "Our approach towards Iran is moving towards achieving interests in sustainable non-proliferation and containing all of Iran's malign activities in various areas."