Officials Warn of Potential Devastating Earthquake in Tehran

The head of the Crisis Management Organization warned that the northern Tehran fault could produce an earthquake as large as 7.2 on the Richter scale; simultaneously, the head of the Tehran City Council's Civil Committee stated that an earthquake with a magnitude above seven in the capital is 'inevitable.' According to Iranian state news agencies, Ali Nasiri, head of Tehran's Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, referred to a nationwide earthquake drill held annually in the metropolis, stating, 'We have intensively practiced the program for one week after an earthquake occurs,' and that in the event of an earthquake, five neighboring provinces will 'assist us when problems arise,' with 'larger provinces' to follow as a secondary priority. Nasiri claimed that '109 crisis management bases' have been established in the capital and that 'city safety has been prioritized'; 'many buildings are being reinforced, and 1,100 new hospital beds will be added to the city.' Additionally, Mohammad Aghamiri, head of the Tehran City Council's Civil Committee, stated, 'More than 90% of earthquake experts believe that an earthquake with a magnitude above seven is inevitable in Tehran.' This city council member added, 'According to expert opinions, the return period for such earthquakes is about 150 years, and now 180 years have passed since the last earthquake, meaning Tehran is 30 years overdue.' Aghamiri emphasized that 'the capital has 4,420 hectares of dilapidated urban fabric,' with 'about two and a half million people living in these areas,' stressing that 'this dilapidated fabric could cause significant human and financial losses during an earthquake.' Previously, Jalal Bahrami, deputy mayor of Tehran, stated that a 13-hectare plot of land in southern Tehran has been prepared for 'burial of earthquake victims,' and a 300-hectare area has been designated for the same purpose around Tehran, with 'funding' planned for its preparation. Furthermore, Ali Beitollahi, a member of the Islamic Republic's Road Research Center, has warned that nearly 100 high-rise towers in Tehran have been built 'exactly on an active fault,' with 16 hospitals and three fire stations located on fault maps. In this context, Ahmad Shahroudi, a construction litigation judge, told Voice of America that an earthquake in Tehran could be catastrophic due to the city's outdated urban planning and mismanagement.