Oil Conflict Between Saudi Arabia and Iran; Nuclear Speculations in Washington

The Daily Telegraph has addressed the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the context of the OPEC ministers' meeting, stating that the two countries are on a collision course that could lead to the disintegration of the world's largest oil-producing group. The newspaper also references a letter from Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Iran's oil minister, in which he stated that Iran would increase its oil production by one million barrels after sanctions are lifted. Andrew Kristichlow, the author for the Daily Telegraph, adds that the competition among Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran for a larger market share has come at the expense of the economic stability of other smaller OPEC producers. The Daily Telegraph writes that in Riyadh, the new Saudi ruler, Salman bin Abdulaziz, faces the risk of a sudden shift in the U.S. position in favor of Tehran, which could ultimately threaten the future of the Al Saud family. According to the newspaper, Iran's support for the Houthis in Yemen and its proximity to the Islamic State (ISIS) has put the Saudis in a predicament, suggesting that only Iranian forces are capable of confronting ISIS. The author's analysis indicates that Saudi Arabia's decision in November to increase production and lower oil prices was not aimed at sidelining U.S. shale oil, as U.S. production has reached its highest level in 44 years. The author believes that Saudi Arabia's decision to produce over 10 million barrels per day aims to subdue other OPEC producers, including its major Middle Eastern rival, Iran. The policy of reducing oil prices, which the Daily Telegraph states is primarily pursued by Saudi Arabia, has brought the economies of Nigeria, Venezuela, and Algeria to a dangerous point. The Daily Telegraph adds that Iran is secretly seeking to replace the current OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah Salem al-Badri, who aligns with Saudi policies. The newspaper reports that Iranians preferred Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, the former oil minister of Qatar, for the secretary-general position. The Time magazine website has highlighted Azerbaijan's interest in involving Iran in the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) for gas transfer to Europe, which would compete with Russian gas for Europe. Natiq Aliyev, Azerbaijan's energy minister, stated that Iran, with its vast energy resources, is one of the main candidates for connecting to this pipeline. Mohsen Pak Ayin, Iran's ambassador to Azerbaijan, responded to these remarks by saying that the Iranian government is considering the invitation to join the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, which is part of Iran's plans for a strong presence in the global gas market. The 1770-kilometer TANAP pipeline is expected to start delivering gas to Europe in 2020. The Politico website has examined the deadline for nuclear negotiations until July 1st. This website quoted Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, who is currently in Washington, calling for an extension of the deadline to close all loopholes for Iran and clarify the details. Yuval Steinitz is a member of the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and has previously served as Israel's Minister of Information and Security. Politico reflected the opinion of Gary Seymour, who was part of the Obama administration until 2013 and is familiar with the negotiation process, stating that the U.S. government should not feel pressured by the July 1st deadline, as the Iranians would use this deadline as leverage in negotiations. Politico pointed out two major issues in the negotiation process: one is free access to Iranian military sites, and the other is the speed of lifting sanctions. Meanwhile, Robert Einhorn, who participated in negotiations during Obama's first term, expressed doubt that the two sides could resolve their differences within the remaining month. Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. State Department official, noted that John Kerry's bicycle accident might ultimately benefit the West by allowing for an extension of the negotiation deadline. Some Obama administration officials in private discussions suggest that negotiations could extend into July. However, delays in the agreement could create further issues from Congress in the negotiation process. According to a law passed by Congress, which Obama reluctantly signed, if the U.S. President reaches an agreement with Iran, Congress has one month to prevent the suspension of sanctions against Iran. However, if the agreement with Iran is submitted to Congress after July 9th, Congress will have an additional month due to the summer recess.