One Year After Saudi Military Operations in Yemen

Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was chosen as the new king of Saudi Arabia on January 23, 2015, and within two months, on March 26, he launched a military coalition known as "Operation Decisive Storm" against the Houthis. Now, a year has passed since the start of Operation Decisive Storm. Riyadh appears satisfied with its achievements so far. This satisfaction is evident not only among Saudi political officials but also among the high-ranking religious authorities in the country. The imam of the Grand Mosque recently called on King Salman to implement "other operations similar to Desert Storm" to eradicate terrorism, extremism, and sectarianism. In his remarks, while addressing Salman bin Abdulaziz not as king but as imam (leader of the Islamic community), he stated: "O Salman, O Imam, O [leader] of this blessed coalition, the Islamic community awaits further Decisive Storms to eradicate terrorism, extremism, sectarianism, racism, and poverty and corruption. This country and the land of the Two Holy Shrines have well understood the dangers in the region, leading to the establishment of this coalition." These statements from a high-ranking Saudi religious figure are noteworthy because, firstly, they reflect the satisfaction of Saudi religious officials, and secondly, they indicate the political-religious establishment's belief that military action is the solution to regional problems (terrorism, extremism, and sectarianism). Since the imam of the Grand Mosque is an appointed official of the ruling authority (as is the case in the Islamic Republic), his statements from the Grand Mosque (the most sacred place for Muslims) reflect that religious institutions, alongside state institutions, are pleased with Saudi Arabia's year-long operations in Yemen and, more importantly, consider the use of military force as a solution to regional problems. If this is the case, we can predict Riyadh's strategy for the region. In the absence of U.S. involvement and following the withdrawal of renowned Arab armies (Egypt and Iraq) from regional roles, it is expected that after Riyadh manages to shape Yemen's fate according to its desires based on its military power, the next step will be to employ its military weight to resolve other regional crises. In clearer terms, Tehran's claim of controlling four Arab capitals (Sanaa, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut) is very distressing for Saudi Arabia, which now considers itself the leader of the Arab world. If Riyadh can liberate Sanaa, it will wear the medal of victory. Naturally, such a victor will seek further conquests, and the chaotic Arab world will have similar expectations from it. This is where the imam's words make sense, as he stated that the expectation of the "Islamic community" from their leader is nothing less than to carry out similar operations to Decisive Storm in other Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut). His call to suppress sectarianism (read: Shiism) through similar military operations is nothing but a call to escalate the Shiite-Sunni conflict from the heights of the Grand Mosque. In fact, the statements of the imam of the Grand Mosque are not merely directed at King Salman but are a call to mobilize the Sunni world. His words reveal Riyadh's similar scenarios, namely resorting to military force to resolve the ongoing regional crises. Such ambitions from Riyadh, in the face of Tehran's stubbornness and aspirations, do not bode well for the region. The oil war, the beheading of Sheikh Nimr (a Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia supported by Tehran), and placing Hezbollah (Iran's military arm) on the list of terrorist organizations by the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League at Riyadh's suggestion are evidence that Riyadh has not held back from pressuring Tehran. However, the call to eradicate sectarianism through military force, especially from the imam of the Grand Mosque, indicates the depth of the dangers that could ignite the region. A year after the start of Operation Decisive Storm, a year has passed since Saudi Arabia's military operations in Yemen. Throughout the history of the Saudi monarchy, the country has never engaged in an overseas war of this scale. Before 2015 and prior to Operation Decisive Storm, Saudi Arabia was considered one of the conservative countries. However, now Riyadh has plans to change the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, backed by its oil, military, and religious power. Riyadh claims that as a result of the coalition's operations, a significant portion of the ballistic missile capabilities and operational mobility of the Houthis on land have been destroyed, and as a result, 80% of Yemen's territories, including all of the country's strategic ports and the cities of Aden and Taiz, have been taken out of Houthi control. Nevertheless, Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, remains under Houthi control. Saudi media claim they will soon retake Sanaa. However, from a military perspective, despite the uneven capabilities of the warring parties in Yemen, where one side is a coalition of nine countries and the other consists only of landlocked Houthi forces, the coalition's inability to retake Sanaa within a year is significant. Meanwhile, according to Human Rights Watch, the coalition's use of banned cluster bombs and various other advanced weapons has rendered 120,000 Yemenis homeless and caused serious damage to the country's historical sites. Despite all this human cost, the coalition's failure to achieve a final victory over the Houthis in the past year is not a particularly satisfactory sign. Nevertheless, the establishment of a coalition of nine countries in significant silence from most of the world regarding the damages inflicted on ordinary people is a sign of Saudi Arabia's diplomatic success. However, what is of greater importance than Saudi Arabia's diplomatic success and its relative military victories in Yemen is the overarching strategy that Riyadh has prepared to maintain its superiority. In this context, on the eve of the anniversary of Operation Decisive Storm, in February 2016, it prepared an unprecedented maneuver called Northern Thunder, which involved 350,000 troops from 20 countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, Sudan, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Mauritania, Djibouti, Senegal, Chad, Comoros Islands, Maldives) and included 20,000 tanks, 2,540 fighter jets, 460 helicopters, and hundreds of warships. The display of such military strength on one hand and the imam's statements to mobilize public opinion on the other indicate the depth of militarism observed in Saudi Arabia. A similar situation in the Shiite axis (Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut) is also not hidden from anyone. Now, on the anniversary of the coalition's operations, it can be concluded that if the Syrian crisis does not find a diplomatic resolution and if the Yemen crisis ends with a military solution led by Saudi Arabia, it would not be unexpected that, now that Saudi Arabia is buoyed by victory, it considers a similar model, namely resorting to military force for other regional crises.