Opposition Forces Align Against Erdogan Ahead of Turkish Elections

For over two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, has won every election in Turkey. It is hard to believe that he, who has ruled Turkey with power, might accept defeat gracefully in a tight race against his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu on Sunday, May 14, and quietly step down from power. Paralyzing inflation, the collapse of the lira, and a severe decline in living standards, alongside the devastating earthquake in February that killed 50,000 people and left millions homeless, have severely impacted many people in Turkey who, along with a new generation of voters, are yearning for change. Kilicdaroglu has taken a 5% lead over Erdogan in the polls, but Erdogan still has a chance of victory due to the support of the religious working class in Anatolia. Observers believe that a narrow defeat for Erdogan would lead to protests, but otherwise, little can be done by him. A presidential official told Reuters, "It is completely baseless and meaningless to say that he will not leave his position." According to Turkey's voting system, the election winner must secure more than 50% of the votes; otherwise, the election will go to a second round. Erdogan, who has been the most influential leader of Turkey since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the father of modern Turkey, has concentrated power around an executive presidency. He has suppressed opponents, imprisoned critics, and pressured the media and judiciary. He has also sidelined powerful generals, dismissed three central bank governors, and destabilized the Turkish economy. Opponents believe he is like a sultan wanting to compete with Atatürk and, along with his party, the Justice and Development Party, aims to steer Turkey towards Islamism, contrary to Atatürk's secular vision. Most economists attribute Turkey's long-term financial crisis and staggering inflation, which reached 85% last year, to Erdogan's unconventional policies, including his strong insistence on low-interest rates that have driven away foreign investors. However, Erdogan continues his campaign, showcasing the success of major defense, gas, and industrial projects during his tenure. What many critics call a weak response to the earthquake, especially after revelations of misconduct in granting construction permits for earthquake-damaged homes, has dealt a serious blow to Erdogan's reputation. Analysts historically consider inflation and economic crises as significant factors in the downfall of Turkish governments. When Erdogan came to power in 2003, Turkey was experiencing economic growth, and improvements in the situation of the poor, increases in per capita income, expansion of wealth, healthcare, and the construction of new schools, clinics, roads, bridges, and airports added to his popularity. Additionally, stabilizing Turkey as a regional power and lifting the ban on wearing headscarves in government offices and universities won the approval of many people in Turkey, but now, due to the severe depreciation of the currency, paying for food, school, and rent has become difficult for workers whose minimum wage is $436 a month. Critics say he has created a new class of corrupt oligarchs and construction giants with personal interests. They also believe that especially after the suppression of the 2016 coup, Erdogan's tolerance for any defiance of power has diminished, sliding towards an authoritarian regime. The withdrawal of Muharrem Ince, one of the presidential candidates, from the election race on Thursday, May 11, who had previously announced he would support Kilicdaroglu if the election went to a second round, is also considered a significant factor in Erdogan's potential defeat. Muharrem Ince withdrew from the election after a fake video of him in a sexual act was released, an incident attributed to Russia, a country that Turkey heavily relies on for energy imports, of which Russia is the largest supplier. The outcome of the election on Sunday could be a turning point for Turkey: with Erdogan's defeat, Turkey could return to a more secular and democratic past and free institutions from government control, but Erdogan's victory could mean harsher crackdowns against his political enemies and remaining independent institutions.