Pakistan Army Commander; A Turning Point in Tehran-Islamabad Relations?

Recently, in an unprecedented move in Pakistan's defense diplomacy, the country's army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, led a high-ranking military delegation to Tehran. During his three-day visit, he engaged in discussions with Hassan Rouhani, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Foreign Minister, Mohammad Hatami, the Minister of Defense, Major General Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and Major General Mohammad Jafari, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The visit of Pakistani military officials to Iran is not new. General Pervez Musharraf traveled to Iran during his presidency to participate in a regional summit, and similarly, General Raheel Sharif, the then Commander of the Pakistan Army, visited Tehran in late January 2016, accompanying then Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, for mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. General Raheel Sharif is now the commander of the 'Islamic Military Alliance Against Terrorism' led by Saudi Arabia, which is also known as 'Islamic NATO.' This coalition has 42 members, including Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Oman, Sudan, Gabon, Nigeria, Morocco, and Afghanistan. One of the implications of General Raheel Sharif's appointment to lead the 'Islamic NATO' was that Pakistan, by separating its path from Iran, fully joined the Saudi camp, placing the Islamic Republic and its strategic partner in Central Asia and Afghanistan, India, in opposition. In light of this appointment and regional developments, and considering that the Pakistan Army plays a significant role in determining the country's foreign policy, General Qamar Javed Bajwa's visit raises several questions. Was he a messenger from Riyadh carrying a message for Tehran? Have Pakistan's military and security institutions changed their stance towards the Islamic Republic? Is Pakistan seeking to create a balance in its relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia? From the 1980s until the September 11, 2001 attacks in the U.S. and the subsequent 'War on Terror' initiated by President George Bush, Pakistan's foreign policy was intertwined with Saudi Arabia's policies and demands. Iranian officials and media stated that the purpose of this visit was to exchange views on regional and international issues and to enhance bilateral cooperation. The ups and downs of relations between the two countries date back to before the 1979 revolution when relations were very close and friendly during the Shah's reign. In the 1971 war between Pakistan and India over the separation of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), Iran assisted Pakistan with military hardware, intelligence, and logistics. After the revolution, Pakistan made efforts to mediate to end the Iran-Iraq war, which were unsuccessful. However, in the late 1990s, with the rise of the Taliban, supported by Islamabad, which controlled 90% of Afghanistan, relations between Iran and Pakistan cooled. Attacks against Shia in Afghanistan and Pakistan further exacerbated the situation. In 1998, the coldness of these relations peaked with the massacre of Iranian diplomats at the consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan, by the Sahaba group—a Pakistani terrorist group apparently linked to Pakistan's intelligence agency—which brought the two countries to the brink of direct military confrontation. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Saudi-backed groups in Pakistan reached their peak in terms of capability and power, targeting many Shia mosques and their prominent figures. During these years, the Iranian consulate in Peshawar was attacked twice, and a senior Iranian diplomat was kidnapped in 2009. Consequently, the Islamic Republic directed its sharp criticisms towards Saudi-backed groups and held the Pakistani government responsible for failing to protect Iranian diplomats and prevent the massacre of Shia. In fact, from the 1980s until the September 11 attacks, Pakistan's foreign policy was closely tied to Saudi Arabia's policies and demands. Mutual suspicion and distrust have characterized the relationship. From the perspective of the Islamic Republic, Pakistan is seen as a supporter of the war against Shia in Bahrain, led by Saudi Arabia, and is involved in training and arming some of the opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad at Riyadh's behest. Conversely, Pakistan has sharply criticized the Islamic Republic for organizing, training, and arming Afghan and Pakistani Shia, sending them to Syria in the form of Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades. Another issue between the two countries is related to Balochistan, where drug trafficking and the activities of armed Baloch militant groups overshadow security on both sides of the border. In the past two years, Iranian and Pakistani military forces have repeatedly engaged in mortar attacks or gunfire targeting each other's territories, a situation unprecedented in the 68-year political history of the two countries. In one instance, Major General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, then Deputy Commander of the Army, stated, 'If the Pakistani government does not take serious action, we consider the destruction of the nests of outlaws and terrorists in any depth within the neighboring country as our legitimate and legal right.' These remarks provoked a strong reaction from Pakistan, leading its Foreign Ministry to summon the Iranian ambassador in Islamabad and submit a note of protest. A Bright Horizon? Despite the past ups and downs and the persistence of some issues between Iran and Pakistan, it is expected that General Qamar Javed Bajwa will play a significant role in enhancing the relations between the two countries. According to Talat Masood, a military analyst and retired general of the Pakistan Army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa 'welcomes any strengthening of Iran-Pakistan relations, including political, economic, commercial, and especially defense and military cooperation.' In practice, Qamar Javed Bajwa has made clear efforts during his first year of command to alleviate Iran's concerns, which believes in Pakistan's key role in the 'Islamic Military Alliance.' In the past six months, he has met with the Iranian ambassador in Islamabad three times and even recommended that the Islamic Republic join this alliance. Although Iran is not interested in joining this Saudi-led coalition, it has shown a favorable attitude towards the 'China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,' which connects the Gwadar port to Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of northwestern China. During the visit of the Pakistani army commander to Tehran, border issues were discussed, and for the first time, Pakistan was able to garner Iran's support to help resolve some issues in Afghanistan. The two countries are aligned on non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs, emphasizing the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country, and facilitating national reconciliation. Furthermore, Ayatollah Khamenei for the first time mentioned the Kashmir issue, likening the conflict over this region to the injustice in the Palestinian issue. This statement marks a turning point in Iran's position on Kashmir, which for three decades has always been considered an 'internal issue' of India. Now that Pakistan has taken steps to strengthen relations with Iran, it seems that the Islamic Republic is willing to support Pakistan regarding the Kashmir issue, which is of great significance to Islamabad. It is not surprising that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are displeased with Pakistan's rapprochement with Iran. However, according to some Pakistani media reports, the Pakistani army has informed U.S. officials that it has no favored neighbor and prefers to cooperate with all its neighbors to establish stability in the region. In this context, Pakistan has informed Iran that it can count on it as an equal partner in the fight against terrorism. Overall, Iran welcomes Pakistan's balanced position regarding the balance of power in the Middle East. Pakistan does not want to isolate Iran or distance itself, a move that could have adverse consequences given Pakistan's demographic and religious composition and its influence on the country's internal politics. The visit of the Pakistani army commander and the rapprochement of this country with Iran, establishing a kind of balance with Tehran and Riyadh, will benefit Islamabad. However, Pakistan also sees this balanced position as essential for its internal security, as Pakistani Shia militants supported by Iran, who fight in Syria under the Zainabiyoun Brigade, could potentially return to their country and wage campaigns against their Sunni compatriots, exacerbating the next proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia for leadership in the Islamic world. Challenges in Establishing Balance Given the influence of the Pakistan Army on the country's foreign policy, especially regarding Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, India, and the U.S., General Qamar Javed Bajwa's visit to Tehran could be a turning point in Pakistan-Iran relations. Pakistan does not want to isolate Iran or distance itself, a move that could have adverse consequences given Pakistan's demographic and religious composition and its influence on the country's internal politics. The visit of the Pakistani army commander and the rapprochement of this country with Iran, establishing a kind of balance with Tehran and Riyadh, will benefit Islamabad, although this effectiveness requires time for Tehran to trust Islamabad's current position, especially since the Pakistan Army has traditionally been close to Saudi Arabia. In this context, Pakistan needs to clarify its level of participation in the 'Islamic Military Alliance.' Defense ministers and high-ranking officials of this coalition gathered in Riyadh on November 26 to determine the responsibilities and powers of the coalition's members. As reported by Saudi media, this meeting was held with the aims of creating coordination among member countries, consolidating their efforts to combat terrorism, and linking the coalition's actions with global efforts in this regard. Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, also expressed hope for the establishment and expansion of 'special, strong, and high-level coordination' among members in the face of threats from extremist groups at the opening ceremony of the coalition meeting. Therefore, the level of Pakistan's participation in this coalition and the establishment of a balance while garnering the attention of Iran and Riyadh, given the strained relations between these two countries, will be challenging for Islamabad. So far, Pakistan has clearly stated that it will refrain from participating in any military action against a Muslim country and has thus avoided entering the Yemen campaign and standing alongside Saudi Arabia. The Pakistani Parliament and Senate also passed a resolution in April 2015, urging the government to avoid any military action in an Islamic country while supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Saudi Arabia—a resolution that displeased Riyadh and other Arab countries. So far, the Pakistani army commander has taken effective steps to enhance relations between Pakistan and Iran, but it remains to be seen whether the Pakistani government can manage to walk the very thin and delicate line between Saudi Arabia and Iran.