Paris Terrorist Attacks and Possible Political and Military Aftershocks

On the evening of Friday, November 13, during several terrorist attacks in Paris, at least 129 people were killed and over 352 were injured, with 99 of them reported to be in critical condition. The Paris attacks are the deadliest since the Islamist militant bombings on Madrid's urban trains in 2004, which resulted in the deaths of 191 people and injuries to over 1800. The Islamic State group (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks, and French President François Hollande has officially identified the group as the perpetrator. Reports indicate that eight ISIS members carried out the attacks using explosive belts and weapons. The French Interior Ministry has instructed local governments to implement curfews if necessary, and Hollande has described the attacks as a "declaration of war," stating that a relentless fight against ISIS will commence. France has declared three days of national mourning, and French anti-terror units have been deployed, with at least 1500 soldiers mobilized to help secure Paris. The planned attacks exhibited coordination and simultaneity, utilizing various methods and weapons tailored to the terrorists' targets across different locations in Paris. Although ISIS claimed there were eight attackers, it is clear these terrorists had logistical, financial, and military support from other teams. Such actions require planning, preparation, training, target identification, weapon procurement, and the selection of individuals for execution, which exceeds the capabilities of a mere eight-person group. Investigations are ongoing to fully identify the attackers, but passports recovered from the suicide bombers and initial information suggest that one was French, one Egyptian, and one Syrian. Reports indicate that the Syrian passport holder infiltrated France disguised as a refugee via Greece. The discovery of this passport alongside the body of one of the suicide bombers indicates that ISIS, in addition to utilizing various recruitment methods including social media, sends some of its operatives as sleeper agents to target countries to be activated at the right time and upon command. The radicalization of Muslim youth, while the terrorist attacks in France are shocking, they are not surprising. A significant number of Muslim citizens from European countries, including France and Britain, have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, and this trend, rooted in the radicalization of some European Muslims, continues to persist to varying degrees despite all security measures. Although over 20,000 ISIS members have been killed in Syria and Iraq during more than 8000 operational flights by the U.S. and other coalition countries in the past fifteen months, ISIS's human resource capacity has not significantly decreased, even as routes to join ISIS through Turkey have become somewhat restricted. Most of the Syrian border with Turkey is controlled by Syrian Kurds (People's Protection Units or YPG), and the Jordan-Syria border is also closed, making the route through Lebanon very dangerous. Some European security experts believe these restrictions have led some individuals attracted to ISIS, following their recruiters' advice, to remain in their host countries instead of undertaking risky journeys to join ISIS in Syria or Iraq, to carry out terrorist attacks at the right moment and upon command. France's immediate security measures in response to the shock of these terrorist attacks have not returned life in Paris to normal, and the government has taken a series of urgent actions to restore security to the city. The French President has declared a state of emergency and urged people to stay indoors. Simultaneously, the government is strengthening police forces and deploying military personnel to ensure internal security while temporarily suspending the Schengen agreement to tighten border controls and prevent illegal immigration. There are concerns that, given the influx of refugees to Europe, especially from Syria, jihadist groups may carry out further terrorist actions through their infiltrators. Besides these immediate actions, it is expected that the activities of French security and intelligence agencies and their cooperation with European countries will expand further. As last year's armed attacks on the Charlie Hebdo magazine office demonstrated, the risk of terrorist attacks in France and other European countries is permanent, although the degree of risk may increase or decrease based on current conditions. Despite the bitter experience of the aforementioned attacks and the subsequent review of France's security measures, it was expected that France could minimize this level of risk, but the Paris attacks and their severity have called this review into question. Military implications are expected to follow the Paris terrorist attacks. Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, spoke on November 14 at the Vienna meeting on Syria about expanding the war against ISIS. Meanwhile, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is on the verge of heading to the Persian Gulf to participate in air operations against ISIS. Given François Hollande's statements identifying ISIS as responsible for the Paris attacks and telling the French people that Paris's response to ISIS's "barbarism" will be ruthless, it is highly likely that France will increase its participation in air operations against ISIS and other terrorist groups. France began its airstrikes against ISIS positions in Syria and Iraq in late September, and during this time, as a member of the coalition against ISIS, has stationed six Dassault Rafale fighters in the United Arab Emirates and six Mirage fighters in Jordan. These aircraft have so far conducted 1285 operational flights against ISIS positions in Iraq and only two flights in Syria. France has the necessary military capabilities to increase its airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, but given Russia's presence in Syria and the crowded air traffic in the country, it is expected that France will continue to focus on ISIS positions in Iraq. Additionally, France may expand its training and equipping programs for anti-ISIS groups and other terrorist groups or participate in commando operations, similar to the U.S., against key individuals and commanders of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. France may also deploy some of its ground units to Iraq, as it did when it sent nearly 3000 troops to combat terrorism in the Sahel region (parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad) in 2014. Politically, the Paris attacks could strengthen cooperation among European Union countries to resolve the Syrian crisis through political means and even pave the way for a coherent and effective strategy with the U.S. to defeat ISIS. France has consistently insisted on the immediate removal of Assad from power as a priority in its efforts to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis. It is unlikely that France will change its position on Assad in the short term, but it is expected that in the coming months, after overcoming the shock of the Paris attacks, France will adjust its stance on Assad and increase its cooperation with the U.S. and Russia regarding the Syrian crisis. The influx of refugees to Europe and the potential cancellation of the Schengen agreement, given the surge of refugees from North Africa and the East towards Europe and the crisis it has caused affecting most EU countries, will amplify the voices of politicians opposed to accepting refugees. These attacks will reinforce a common viewpoint among some EU politicians who argue that the borders of Germany, Sweden, and Eastern and Central European countries should be closed to migrants. The attacks will also bolster the efforts of some politicians calling for a review or even cancellation of the Schengen agreement. In this context, Poland has taken initial steps following the Paris attacks. The Polish Minister for European Affairs announced that in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris, Warsaw will refuse to accept refugees based on the quota set by the European Union, stating that there is no political possibility to fulfill this commitment. Simultaneously, as expected, the right-wing National Front party in France has called on François Hollande's government to cancel the Schengen agreement. Marine Le Pen, the party leader, stated in a television program that France must seek to "regain control of its borders." These attacks could strengthen Le Pen's position in the upcoming regional elections in France. In Germany, Horst Seehofer, the Prime Minister of Bavaria, stated that the Paris attack has revived the importance of border control. This minister, who opposes Germany's refugee policy, has called for permanent border control and for refugees to be returned to their countries of origin as soon as possible. While the Paris attacks will strengthen the position of politicians like the Bavarian Prime Minister in Germany, they will also increase pressure on Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, who is under pressure due to the refugee crisis. This country is set to accept over one million refugees this year. In recent weeks, Germany has witnessed violence against refugees and migrants, with some of their shelters being set on fire. Given the Paris attacks and the tense atmosphere and concerns arising from them in most European countries, an attack by right-wing groups against refugees in these countries is not unexpected. The Paris terrorist attacks will bolster the position of opponents to refugee acceptance in European countries and weaken the position of supporters of the Schengen agreement. So far, several EU countries, such as Germany, Sweden, Slovenia, and Hungary, have begun to control their borders due to the crisis caused by the influx of refugees, and it will be difficult for many EU countries to keep their borders open as before under the Schengen agreement. In conclusion, the Paris attacks, occurring just two weeks after the crash of a Russian passenger plane with 224 people in the Sinai desert, and the consensus of most Western security and intelligence agencies that ISIS was responsible for this crash, along with the recent ISIS bombing in a Shiite neighborhood controlled by Hezbollah in Beirut, indicate a clear shift in ISIS's strategy to extend its fight beyond Syria and Iraq to countries it is fighting against, such as France and Russia. Fighting ISIS without adopting a coherent strategy against it and without resolving the Syrian crisis, the various dimensions of which, including the influx of refugees from this country to Europe, have affected the EU, will not be possible. Therefore, continuing the Vienna talks to establish a ceasefire in Syria and shape a political transition in this country is of utmost importance for all regional and extra-regional actors involved in the Syrian crisis.