Parliament Research Center: Iran Will Lose Gasoline Self-Sufficiency in Two Years

The Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly has published a report predicting that if the trend of smuggling continues and fuel consumption in Iran keeps rising, domestic gasoline consumption will exceed production within two years. According to this report, gasoline consumption in Iran is increasing by 10% and even with the completion of the third phase of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery, domestic production will not meet gasoline consumption, as the rate of consumption increase will definitely outpace the construction of refineries. The Research Center predicts that in two years, gasoline consumption will exceed 120 million liters per day, while domestic production capacity will reach about 105 million liters per day, indicating a daily shortfall of 15 million liters of gasoline, necessitating imports. In the first half of this year, the average production and consumption of gasoline was about 88 million liters, maintaining a balance between production and consumption. The report emphasizes that neglecting the implementation of the 'Public Transport Development and Fuel Consumption Management' law and the 'Energy Consumption Pattern Reform' law has contributed to the rapid increase in gasoline consumption in Iran. The Research Center also stresses that the price difference between petroleum products in Iran and neighboring countries has accelerated the smuggling of fuel products, especially diesel. According to estimates from the Anti-Smuggling Headquarters, the amount of fuel smuggled out of the country is about 11.5 million liters daily, with over 80% being diesel. The production of fuel-inefficient vehicles using outdated technologies has been cited as one of the factors driving fuel consumption in Iran. Based on estimates from the Research Center, if the fuel used by three million vehicles is switched from gasoline to CNG (Compressed Natural Gas), gasoline consumption would decrease by more than 15 million liters per day. Suggested solutions for controlling fuel consumption include improving gasoline engine technology, enhancing the quality of domestically produced vehicles, replacing old vehicles, and converting vehicles to dual-fuel or electric. Currently, trucks consume an average of 70 liters of diesel per 100 kilometers, which could be reduced to 30 liters per 100 kilometers by replacing them with new trucks. To curb fuel smuggling out of Iran, the Research Center has also proposed the revival of the fuel card and gasoline rationing. The revival of the fuel card, with or without rationing, is considered an effective measure for controlling fuel smuggling. Allocating fuel based on the mileage of the diesel transport fleet, which can be facilitated by installing GPS and navigation devices on these vehicles, is another recommendation from the Research Center for controlling smuggling. Additionally, selling fuel to major consumers such as power plants or agricultural sector consumers at FOB prices is another suggestion to control fuel smuggling out of Iran. Finally, the report introduces the development of passenger transport by urban rail in Tehran and eight other major cities in Iran as an effective solution for reducing gasoline consumption, facilitating the replacement of private vehicles, and considered essential for the success of pricing policies.