Political and Economic Challenges in Iraqi Kurdistan

The referendum on the future of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which according to official sources saw about ninety-three percent of participants voting for independence, adds a new major crisis to the multitude of crises engulfing the region known as the Middle East. The intensification of regional crises due to the referendum and its outcome cannot and should not be used as a tool to condemn the independence-seeking tendencies of the Kurds in Iraq. The Kurds of Iraq and Turkey are among the biggest victims of the transformations that the Middle East has undergone in the past century since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. It is not these Kurds who should be blamed for turning the region into a 'powder keg.' The deep-rooted strong 'separatist' tendencies among the Kurds of Iraq are not unusual. When the 'Sykes-Picot' agreements were signed in 1916, no one asked them whether they wanted to start a shared life within the borders of a new country called Iraq alongside other ethnic groups. It is rare for a forced marriage to lead to a peaceful life. The shared life of Kurds and Arabs in Iraq could not help but lead to bloody tensions. However, separation among the components of a country is not necessarily accompanied by violence and bloodshed. A few years ago, the Czech Republic separated from Slovakia without causing a disaster or shedding blood. Currently, several countries in Europe face the possibility of collapse without anyone imagining that the sky will fall if these countries break apart. A very strong civil and political movement in the Catalan region seeks separation from Spain. Scotland oscillates between staying or leaving the UK. In Belgium, the Walloons and Flemish do not get along. In France, the Corsican region (the birthplace of Napoleon Bonaparte) occasionally expresses its desire for separation. It can be said without a doubt that in the coming decades, considering the fragmentation of some national units, the number of independent countries will increase. Even in North America, the province of Quebec in Canada occasionally yearns for separation. Or in the United States, there is a movement that speaks of California's independence (Calexit); but the Middle East is not Western Europe or North America. Questioning borders in this region, no matter how justified, will inevitably lead to waves of blood. Unfortunately, it must be said that there is not much time left to prevent a catastrophe; but even in this short time, the reality must be stated. Those who currently defend the necessity of stability of existing borders in the tumultuous Middle East do not necessarily belong to the spectrum of extreme nationalists and sworn enemies of minority rights. Of course, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has not been drawn once and for all, and in this region, as in many other parts of the world, the reconfiguration of national boundaries will sooner or later be raised; but it is better that this reconfiguration is based on the will of people endowed with the right to freely choose their destiny, not by the bloody hands of enchanted and defeated masses led by religious or nationalist leaders. Based on this logic, it can be said that in the current situation of the Middle East, the advancement of civil society and individual and political freedoms takes precedence over the re-drawing of national borders. Unfortunately, what transpired during the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum does not signal the emergence of a fresh air in the Middle East. Everything in this process has a 'Middle Eastern' flavor. Even with maximum indulgence and goodwill, one cannot speak of a truly democratic referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Did the opponents of independence have the same freedoms and rights as the proponents of independence during the preparation of this referendum? Did the opponents of independence have the opportunity to defend their views in a secure environment without fear for a sufficient period? The fact that the referendum ended with a 93 percent result in favor of independence is itself problematic. Referendums conducted in democratic countries, especially when it comes to secession, usually end with a difference of less than four or five percent between supporters and opponents of an option (for example, the Quebec referendum in Canada, the Scotland referendum in the UK, and also 'Brexit'). The bitter experience of contemporary history teaches us that we should be suspicious of results above seventy percent in favor of an individual, a party, or an option. Only regimes like that of Ceaușescu do not settle for less than ninety percent. Iraqi Kurdistan is facing an economic crisis. The formation and growth of autonomy in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which began to take shape after 1991 and was later formalized with the 2005 Iraqi Constitution, has been a source of hope and pride for all Kurds in Iraq. However, the governmental structures of the region, which rely on two tribal military-political powers (the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan), have failed to become a model for democratic development in the Middle East. Moreover, the main initiator of the independence referendum is Masoud Barzani, whose continued presidency of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is legally fraught with many uncertainties. Economically, the Kurdistan Region has become akin to a country that today wants to separate from Iraq. In fact, political power in Erbil is as heavily dependent on oil as the ruling system in Baghdad and is caught in the same quagmire that has engulfed all political systems reliant on 'black gold.' The oil reserves of the region amount to about 45 billion barrels, which is equivalent to one-third of Iraq's total oil reserves. Ninety-four percent of the Kurdistan Region's GDP is derived from oil. For a relatively long period, the Kurdistan Region benefited from the continuous rise in oil prices, which reached as high as 110 dollars per barrel; but unfortunately, in the region, as in many other oil-rich countries, the increase in oil revenue led to a massive waste. Following prolonged conflicts with Baghdad, the Kurdistan Region gradually took control of its oil production and export, aided by investment from several international companies including Total, Chevron, and ExxonMobil. The region currently exports between 550,000 to 650,000 barrels of oil daily, almost all of which is transported via a pipeline to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey and from there to global markets. If the separation of Kurdistan from Iraq is realized, the position of this country on the global stage will naturally decline in terms of both reserves and export capacity. For a relatively long period, the Kurdistan Region benefited from the continuous rise in oil prices, which reached as high as 110 dollars per barrel; but unfortunately, in the region, as in many other oil-rich countries, the increase in oil revenue led to a massive waste. For example, with the influx of oil dollars, Erbil underwent a rapid transformation filled with towers and palace-like houses and commercial centers. Another consequence of the oil dependency of Kurdistan is the emergence of rampant corruption in this land, which has even led to public mobilization and occasionally violent protests against the region's leaders. In contrast, the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan have made no effort to create a real economy in this land and have failed to distinguish themselves from other governing systems in the Middle East in this regard. Since the fall in oil prices from 2014 onwards, the economy of the Kurdistan Region has plunged into a deep crisis. Baghdad's refusal to provide part of the region's budget, the war with ISIS, and the influx of large numbers of refugees into Iraqi Kurdistan have exacerbated this crisis. In this situation, the budget deficit has risen, the growth rate has collapsed, and the share of the poor in the region's population has exceeded eight percent. Under these conditions, the salaries of the region's employees are often paid with several months of delay, the government treasury is empty, foreign debts are increasing, and oil is being pre-sold through intermediaries like Vitol, Trafigura, and Glencore. One of the most significant problems of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is its lack of access to the sea. This issue can be easily resolved with the cooperation of neighboring countries. The problem is that currently, with the holding of the independence referendum and the announcement of its results, matters have turned hostile, and especially Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has officially announced that he will cut off the transfer of oil from the region to the port of Ceyhan. Similar threats weigh on the region regarding border trade and air communications. The general situation in the Middle East and the political and economic constraints of the Kurdistan Region have turned the declaration of independence into a major challenge. It is hoped that the region's leaders will want to use the results of the recent referendum only as leverage in their future negotiations with Baghdad.