Political Earthquake in France

The first round of regional elections held on Sunday, December 6, to determine the composition of the executive bodies of thirteen regions (equivalent to provinces) in France, revealed that the far-right nationalist party known as the 'National Front' has deeply rooted itself, becoming the most significant political formation in the country by securing 30% of the votes nationwide. In the second round of these elections, which will take place next Sunday, there is a possibility that this formation will manage at least two or even three regions of France. The implications and messages of the elections on December 7 and 13 extend far beyond the distribution of power in the regions of France and foreshadow the political future of the country in the presidential elections scheduled for mid-2017. While it seems that public opinion in France is gradually adopting a stance of acceptance and submission towards the 'National Front' and its programs, the prospect of Marine Le Pen, the head of this formation, establishing herself in the presidential palace, which was considered highly unlikely not long ago, is now within the realm of possibilities. It is important to remember that the main founders of the 'National Front' were figures and groups that expressed loyalty to the puppet government of France during the occupation by Nazi Germany in the early decades after World War II. During this time, the 'Vichy' government led by Marshal Pétain collaborated closely with the Third Reich. The remnants of this government were responsible for the emergence of the most extreme quasi-fascist tendencies in France after its liberation from occupation, and particularly conspired and staged a coup against General de Gaulle during the Algerian War of Independence. The 'National Front', both during the era of the father and the daughter, has made the most of its struggle against immigrants, especially Muslims. Marine Le Pen has openly described Muslims residing in France as 'new occupiers' and has repeatedly warned that their aim is to change the Christian roots of France and turn it into an Islamic land. One of the most important figures emerging from these tendencies was Jean-Marie Le Pen (Marine Le Pen's father), who rose to prominence in French politics during the 1970s and 1980s and even reached the second round in the 2002 presidential elections. The 'populist' discourse of this party, during Jean-Marie Le Pen's leadership, was a mixture of extreme nationalism, anti-Semitism, opposition to immigrants and especially Muslims, and hostility towards European unity. However, what happened in 2002 resembled more of a random event and was considered a fleeting phenomenon. In contrast, today's rise of the 'National Front' is based on much stronger foundations. This formation has skillfully transformed its image and discourse without genuinely changing its true nature. Moreover, the 'National Front' has patiently established very strong footholds for itself and has taken root in the political society of France. Marine Le Pen, unlike her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, avoids anything that smells of 'provocation' and for this reason has sidelined her father so that her selection does not face difficulties in favor of 'moving with the lights off'. However, behind the very skillful tactics of Ms. Le Pen, a set of factors over the past few years, especially in the last year, have created a very favorable environment for the rise of the 'National Front' in French politics: 1) Failure of economic policies: Both right and left parties in France have failed in their fight against economic recession in recent years, and their leaders have largely lost credibility among a large portion of public opinion. A high unemployment rate of over 10% has become a chronic ailment of the French economy, unlike countries like Germany or the UK, which have managed to pull their labor markets out of recession through various innovations. In this context, it is not surprising that French workers have become the largest electoral base for the 'National Front'. 2) Waves of refugees: The 'National Front', both during the era of the father and the daughter, has made the most of its struggle against immigrants, especially Muslims. Marine Le Pen has openly described Muslims residing in France as 'new occupiers' and has repeatedly warned that their aim is to change the Christian roots of France and turn it into an Islamic land. In recent months, with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of political and economic refugees, mainly from the Middle East, to Europe, Ms. Le Pen's anti-immigrant discourse has taken on new dimensions, and its impact on public opinion has significantly increased. 3) Terrorism: Two waves of terrorism that shook France in January and November 2015 unprecedentedly provided a very favorable environment for the rise of the 'National Front' in French politics. The head of this formation used these two 'golden opportunities' to warn his compatriots that the massive presence of Muslim immigrants in their land poses a deadly threat to their security. Thus, the 'National Front' has managed to significantly increase its supporters by presenting itself as a party that prioritizes order and security. The return of National-Socialism? With all these opportunities, the 'National Front' assures the French that it has answers to all their questions and solutions to all their concerns. More importantly, the responses and proposed solutions of this formation seem acceptable to an expanding segment of public opinion in France. However, a closer look at the program presented by the 'National Front' reveals that this formation, like all 'populist' tendencies, merely rides the wave and resorts to simplistic solutions in the face of very complex difficulties. History shows that 'populism' is one of the most significant challenges to democracy, and combating it requires considerable effort. Those who truly read the programs of political parties (and unfortunately, their numbers are not always high) understand that 'populism' can sometimes be catastrophic for a country. The 'National Front' program, if ever implemented, could plunge France into chaos. Those who are most terrified of the 'National Front' program are industrialists, economic activists, and a large number of French economists. In fact, this formation has meticulously copied the economic program of the French Communist Party and blended it politically with the theories of the most extreme and racist nationalists in Europe. It is worth recalling that in the post-World War II era, France had one of the most Stalinist communist parties in Western Europe, which, while securing 28% of the votes in the legislative elections of 1946, was also the most significant electoral power in the country. The French communists remained one of the most important political forces in France until the early 1980s, but after that, like all communist parties, they fell into decline and currently play a very marginal role. If we scrutinize the economic program of the 'National Front' under Marine Le Pen, we see that in many respects it resembles the French Communist Party of the past and other extreme leftist tendencies in Europe today: 1) The 'National Front' effectively questions 'free economy' both within France and in all its international relations. From the perspective of this formation, globalization of the economy in its current form is 'ultra-liberal' and is therefore strongly condemned. The economy, from the same formation's viewpoint, should not be left to the 'dictatorship of the market' and should not succumb to 'dogmatic competition'. 2) Nationalization of the economy holds an important place in the economic program of the 'National Front'. Control of production and banks, economic planning, maintaining state bureaucracy, reducing the retirement age to sixty years, are other focal points that Ms. Le Pen's party proposes to the French. 3) Exiting the Eurozone and returning to the franc, France's former currency, is another economic promise of the 'National Front'. This formation intends to minimize the powers of the European Union and even revert to protective policies, including in customs areas. 4) Finally, the 'National Front' is as fond of Vladimir Putin's Russia as the French Communist Party was of Stalin's and Brezhnev's Soviet Union. In fact, one of the important goals of this party in the international arena is to create a 'close strategic unity' with Russia. This is the dish that Marine Le Pen's party has cooked by mixing socialism with nationalism for the second largest economy in Europe and one of the most important economies in the world. Will history repeat itself?