Political Earthquake in Israel and the Paths Ahead for Netanyahu's Government

While Israeli media have described Avigdor Lieberman's resignation from the Ministry of Defense and his party's exit from the coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu's government as a 'political earthquake', the continuation of Netanyahu's government or early parliamentary elections remains shrouded in uncertainty. The political tension that has put the cohesion of Netanyahu's fourth government at serious risk began on Tuesday evening following an unspoken ceasefire between Israel and Gaza mediated by Egypt. This unofficial ceasefire came after two days of clashes in which five hundred rockets were fired from Gaza into southern Israel, and Israel conducted its heaviest airstrikes against Gaza in the past four years. The clashes on Monday and Tuesday between the Israeli army and Palestinian armed groups are considered the sixth of this kind this year, which began after the Israeli army carried out an unsuccessful commando operation in Gaza on Sunday, apparently aimed at capturing or killing Marwan Issa, the deputy head of Hamas's military wing. Following the establishment of the unspoken ceasefire, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing 'Yisrael Beiteinu' party, who had been Minister of Defense for the past two and a half years, officially submitted his resignation to the Prime Minister's office on Thursday. Mr. Lieberman emphasized on Wednesday that this manner of ceasefire is nothing but 'surrendering to terror', and expressed his opposition to financial aid from Qatar to Gaza and funding for 'terrorist organizations'. Sofa Landver, the immigration minister from Lieberman's party, also resigned from her position. According to Israeli media, while Netanyahu hoped to maintain his government despite the withdrawal of 'Yisrael Beiteinu', Moshe Kahlon, the finance minister and leader of the 'Kulanu' party, and Aryeh Deri, the interior minister and leader of the Shas party, also called on Netanyahu on Thursday to agree to early elections. However, Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing 'Jewish Home' party, which has eight parliamentary seats and is an ally of Netanyahu's government, asked the Israeli Prime Minister to hand over the Ministry of Defense to him so that 'Israel can get back on the path to victory'. Mr. Bennett, who is currently the Minister of Education, stated that Israel's security is of 'utmost importance' to him and warned that if his request is not met and he leaves the government, it will lose its majority and collapse. Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet explicitly responded to this request; however, some leaders of the Israeli opposition have expressed concern about Bennett's 'extreme right-wing positions' in his political record. Avi Gabbay, leader of the Labor Party, stated that if Netanyahu gives the Ministry of Defense to Naftali Bennett, it would be like handing a box of matches to a mischievous child. The Labor Party leader also accused Netanyahu's government of incompetence for 'bringing in cash dollars for Hamas'. Other opposition leaders, such as Tzipi Livni, have also severely criticized Netanyahu's management in the recent crisis against Hamas. The Israeli opposition has been looking for an opportunity to return to power and defeat Netanyahu since 2009, but the latest polls indicate that these parties are not only unlikely to succeed in the next elections but may actually be in a weaker position than they are currently. The most recent poll published on Thursday in Israeli media shows that if Netanyahu agrees to early elections, he will become Prime Minister for the fifth time in his political career and for the fourth consecutive time, unless the corruption charges against him lead to a different fate for this seasoned Israeli politician and statesman. Last week, before the Gaza crisis rocked his government, Netanyahu claimed that he was ready to step down from the premiership, asserting that there is no politician in the Israeli political sphere who is his equal for this position. Nevertheless, analysts in Israeli media have suggested that it is not unlikely that Netanyahu will hand over the Ministry of Defense to Naftali Bennett to extend the life of his current government until next year. On the other hand, some of Netanyahu's aides have stated that he is aware that giving the Ministry of Defense to Naftali Bennett would portray the Likud party as one that is struggling to ensure security, which would be detrimental to Likud in the next elections. The Jerusalem Post published the results of a poll on Thursday among Israelis after Lieberman's resignation, indicating that Likud would win 24 seats in the next elections, which is fewer than previous months' polls. The polls also suggest that Lieberman, by leaving the current government, may only gain one or two more seats; his party, which had 18 seats in one parliamentary term, has significantly weakened over the past eight years and now only holds 5 seats. The status of parties and their number of seats in the next elections depends on two individuals: General Benny Gantz, the former Chief of Staff, who could potentially gain at least 15 seats if he forms a new centrist party, and Ms. Orly Levy, a politician and daughter of a former popular Moroccan-born minister, who could also gain at least 5 seats if she forms a new party; the seats gained by these two parties would be at the expense of all the old parties. Meanwhile, thousands of people from southern Israel, who have been targets of tens of thousands of rockets fired from Gaza since Ariel Sharon's government withdrew from Gaza in 1995, have been protesting since the ceasefire on Tuesday night and have made their way to Tel Aviv to demonstrate in the larger city as well. In the meantime, comments made by Tzachi Hanegbi, a senior Likud minister, have also made headlines; he stated in an interview with the army radio on Thursday that the recent crisis is a 'marginal issue' and only a threat to the southern regions close to Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement distancing himself from his minister's remarks. On the other hand, leaders of the Palestinian armed organizations in Gaza have stated that the 'balance' they created with their rocket fire against the Israeli army led to Lieberman's resignation. During the two days of clashes between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza, dozens of Palestinians were killed and injured, and several areas of the Gaza Strip, including some high-rise buildings, were completely destroyed. The recent eight-month clashes at the Israel-Gaza border have resulted in over 250 deaths and around 20,000 injuries.