Politics and Economy After the Nuclear Agreement

Fariborz Raisdana, an economist, and Eisa Saharkhiz, a journalist and political activist, discuss the political and economic consequences of the nuclear agreement in an interview with Radio Farda. Raisdana emphasizes that if a nuclear agreement is reached, Hassan Rouhani's government will be politically strengthened, while hardline conservatives, supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and moderate conservatives will become weaker. Raisdana also suggests that moderate conservatives might approach Rouhani's government through intermediaries. Regarding the parliamentary elections, Raisdana believes that the chances for government-supporting groups, excluding reformists and Greens, will increase. However, he is not very optimistic about the situation for political activists, predicting that other factions of the regime will try to close the political space. Raisdana also speculates that some 'friendly' human rights organizations and 'harmless' guild organizations may have more freedom to operate. He stresses that sanctions have put significant pressure on workers and teachers, and since the effects of lifting sanctions will not be seen immediately, the situation for these groups will not change much in the short term. Nonetheless, Raisdana predicts that, for example, the price of the dollar may decrease and inflation may reduce due to relative increases in imports. However, he notes that not all resources are under government control, as military institutions will likely take a portion of these new resources, which may not lead to job creation or entrepreneurship. Eisa Saharkhiz, the journalist and political activist, believes that moderates and reformists will try to steer Iran's economy towards Europe and somewhat towards the U.S. and Canada. Saharkhiz believes that conservatives are seeking to lift sanctions and do not expect much more in the domestic and foreign arenas.