Poll Results: Mahmoud Abbas Would Lose to Ismail Haniyeh in Elections

A new poll released on Tuesday, December 18, shows that if Palestinian leadership elections were held now, Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, would lose his position to Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas. According to the Associated Press, the poll indicates that while Mahmoud Abbas would receive 42% of the Palestinian votes, Ismail Haniyeh would achieve leadership with 49% popularity. This poll was conducted in the context of recent Hamas operations against Israel and the growing dissatisfaction of West Bank Palestinians with the performance of the Palestinian Authority. The survey concluded that the popularity of Hamas and its leadership has increased among West Bank Palestinians, in addition to those in Gaza. The poll was conducted by a Palestinian public opinion and policy research institute under Dr. Khalil Shikaki in Ramallah, surveying 1,200 Palestinians in recent days, with a margin of error of three percent. Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization, has held the leadership of the Palestinian Authority since the death of Yasser Arafat 14 years ago. Ismail Haniyeh, 56, who served as Prime Minister of the Hamas government for 11 years, has been the head of Hamas's political bureau since Spring 2017. Hamas celebrated its 31st anniversary this week with ceremonies, having maintained control over Gaza since ousting Fatah from power 11 years ago. The new poll shows that 64% of Palestinians want Mahmoud Abbas, who recently turned 83, to resign from his position. The last Palestinian leadership elections were held 13 years ago, shortly after Yasser Arafat's death. While Mr. Abbas has repeatedly threatened to resign and even dissolve the Palestinian Authority due to dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in peace negotiations, no date has yet been set for the Palestinian leadership elections. Nevertheless, in the new poll, 34% of Palestinians said they would vote for Hamas representatives in the Palestinian parliament if elections were held now, while 35% preferred Fatah representatives. Despite the increase in Ismail Haniyeh's popularity among the Palestinian public, and while Hamas has supported protests at the Gaza-Israel borders over the past nine months, which resulted in about 270 deaths and over 29,000 injuries, 67% of Palestinians in this poll expressed satisfaction with the recent calm at these borders. Hamas, which has faced numerous challenges in paying for electricity and public employees in Gaza over the past two years, has temporarily resolved these issues with cash from Qatar, which reached Gaza with the direct approval of the Israeli government. Hamas has also encouraged recent armed operations by Palestinians against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the West Bank, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of several Israelis, and Ismail Haniyeh stated that the West Bank has 'begun a new bloody chapter against the enemy.' Hamas has referred to Palestinians killed in response to the Israeli army's actions over the past two weeks as 'martyrs of the homeland.' Some Israeli politicians have accused Benjamin Netanyahu's government of delivering $30 million in Qatari funds to Hamas in Gaza to weaken the Palestinian Authority, while simultaneously being insufficiently vigilant against the recent armed threats against Israelis in the West Bank. In addition to the absence of peace and the failure of the Palestinian Authority to renew political negotiations with Netanyahu's government, relations between the Palestinian Authority and the U.S. have been severed for over a year due to the crisis surrounding the Palestine Liberation Organization and Donald Trump's administration's decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. Palestinian leaders also state that as a result of Trump's directive to cut hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid to the Palestinian Authority and its institutions, the structures of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have been weakened. Despite this, the U.S. has stated that it will present its peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians to the parties in the coming months.